Mystics & Statistics

Well, situation keeps getting worse, and in a lot of different places in the world. The number of cases outside of China is growing rapidly and does not appear to be slowing down. China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Ten day later they are at 81.3K cases. So it is only growing by less than 40 cases a day. Still. Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,250. This is 148 cases in two days. This is not quite contained. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……246,276….10,038….…4.08%

China.……………81,250……3,247……..4.00%

Italy………………41,035……3,405……..8.30%

Iran………….……18,407……1,284……..6.98%

Spain……………..18,077………833…..…4.61%

Germany………..16,290….….…44….….0.27%

United States……14,250….…..205….….1.44%

France……………10,891………371….….3.41%

S. Korea…….…….8,652….……94….….1.09%

Switzerland…….…4,164….…….43….….1.03%

United Kingdom.…3,297……….144…..…4.37%

Netherlands.………2,468.……….76……….3.08%

Austria………….…2,203..……..…6…..….0.27%

Norway……………1,802..…..……7………0.39%

Belgium….….….…1,795……..…21……….1.17%

Sweden…..….……1,439……..…11…..…..0.76%

Denmark..….……..1,225……….…6……….0.49%

 

Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Japan………………943..……….33.……..3.50%

Malaysia….…..……900……….…2………0.22%

Canada……..………872…………12….…..1.38%

Portugal.…..….……785……….…4……….0.51%

Czech Rep…………694……….…0…..…..0%

Australia……………681..…..….…6….…..0.88%

Israel…….…….……677…………..0….…..0%

Brazil………………..621………..…6………0.97%

Ireland……………….557……….…3.………0.54%

Greece..….……..….464………..…6………1.29%

Qatar..………..…….460..……….…0…..…..0%

Pakistan……….……454………..…2…..…..0%

Finland….…………..400……….…0….……0%

Turkey……………….359…..….….4….……1.11%

Poland………….……355…………5……….1.41%

Singapore…..……….345…………0….……0%

Chile..……………..…342………….2………..0.58%

Luxembourg.….…….335…..…..…4…….…1.19%

Iceland…………..…..330……….…1….……0.30%

Slovenia….……..…..319………..…1….……0.31%

Indonesia….….…….311…………25……….8.04%

Bahrain………………278…….……1………..0.36%

Romania……………277………..…0…….….0%

Saudi Arabia…….…274…………..0…..……0%

Thailand.…..……….272………..…1…………0.37%

Estonia…..…………267……..……0…………0%

Ecuador.….…..……260……………3……..….1.15%

Egypt………………..256……..….…7….,,,.….2.73%

Hong Kong….…..…256……..….…4…..……1.56%

Peru…………………234…….…..…1……..….0.43%

Philippines………….217…………..17…………7.83%

Russia…….……..…199……………1…….….0.50%

India……………….…194….……..…4.…..…..2.06%

Iraq…..……………..192..…..….…13………..6.77%

Lebanon……..….…157..……..……3….……1.91%

South Africa……..…150……..…..…4……….2.67%

Kuwait……….……..148..…..………0…..…..0%

San Marino…………144…….…….14….……9.72%

UAE……………..….140……..…..…0……….0%

Panama……..…..…137…..….…….1…..…..0.73%

Taiwan…………..…135…..….…….2…..…..1.48%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 135 cases so far:

 

Mexico…….….……118………..…1….……0.85%

Algeria…….….……..90……………9………10.00%

Vietnam….……….…85….…..……0……….0%

Azerbaijan..……..…..44…….…..…1……….2.27%

New Zealand………..39……………0…….…0%

Ukraine……………….26.………..…3….….11.54%

Palestine…..…..……26?………….0……….0%

Afghanistan…….……22….……..…0……….0%

North Korea..…………0…….…..…0…….…0%

Syria……….…………..0…….……..0…….…0%

Yemen……….….……..0…………..0……..…0%

Libya……….……….…..0…………..0……..…0%

 

Diamond Princess….712…………7……..….0.98%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:43.03 AM EST. It was only updated twice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. The S. Korean mortality rate is now above 1%. They have tested more than 240,000 of their people. This is about a good and complete reporting as we are going to see in the real world. It is getting harder to make the argument that the mortality rate is much less than 1%, even assuming a large number of cases were not reported.
   2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
   3. See the comment to update 9. The poster I gather is making the argument that the actual mortality rate is well less than 1%, based upon the example of Germany. This bears watching.
   4. Of course, what is the actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 340,000 in cases Italy and over 120,000 cases in Iran.
   1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 144 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.43% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 41,035 cases is third (0.068%)
      1. If they really have over 340,000 cases then we are looking at almost 0.6%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
   1. Also, Hong Kong’s 256 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
5. Palestine was reported last week to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 86,036 out of 246,276 cases (and 10,038 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.

Sadly, there is plenty still to blog about with the coronavirus. The picture is changing enough from day-to-day that these updates are getting more frequent. At this point multiple countries have been shut down. They are now starting to shut down cities in the U.S. Yesterday Steven Mnuchin, our treasury secretary, was talking about possibly 20% unemployment. This thing is going to have a big impact and it is affecting everything (including national security issues and future defense spending). I will be blogging about this for a while.

China continues to report very few new cases. For the last eight days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a few dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020 and this morning (Wed) it is 81,102. This is 157 new cases in the last four or five days or less than 40 cases a day. So, almost under control, but not quite. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……204,255….8,243…..…4.04%

China.……………81,102….3,237…..…3.99%

Italy………………31,506….2,503…..….7.94%

Iran………….…..17,361…..1,135…..….6.54%

Spain……….…..13,910..……623………4.48%

Germany………..10,082………26…..….0.26%

S. Korea…….……8,413………84…..….1.00%

France…………….7,696……..148…..….1.92%

United States…….6,510…….114…..….1.83%

Switzerland………2,700……….27…..….1.00%

Netherlands.……..2,056.…..….58.….….2.15%

United Kingdom…1,961……….71………3.62%

Norway……………1,527..….……6………0.39%

Belgium….…….…1,486………14…..…..0.94%

Austria……………1,471..…….…3……….0.20%

Sweden…..………1,212…………8….…..0.66%

Denmark..………..1,091…………4…..….0.37%

 

Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Japan………………889..……….29.……..3.26%

Malaysia….…..……790…………2………0.25%

Canada……..……..598………….8….…..1.34%

Australia……………568..….….…6….…..1.06%

Czech Rep…………464……….…0….…..0%

Portugal.…..….……448……….…2……….0.45%

Qatar..……………….442..……..…0….…..0%

Israel…….…….……427…………..0….…..0%

Greece..….……..….387……….…5………1.29%

Brazil……………….350…..…..…2………0.57%

Finland….…………..336……….…0………0%

Singapore…..………313…………0………0%

Ireland……………..292……….…2.……..0.68%

Slovenia….………..275…..…..…1………0.36%

Estonia…..…………258…………0………0%

Bahrain………….…256…………1….…..0.39%

Pakistan………….…256…………0…..…..0%

Poland………….…..251…………5……….1.99%

Iceland………….…..250…..….…1….……0.40%

Romania……………246…………0……….0%

Chile..………………238………….2…..….0.84%

Indonesia….……….227………..19……….8.37%

Thailand.…..……….212…………1………0.47%

Luxembourg.….…..203…..…..…2………0.99%

Philippines…….…..202………..19….…..9.41%

Egypt………………196……….…6…..….3.06%

Hong Kong……..…181……….…4………2.21%

Saudi Arabia………171…………..0………0%

Iraq…..……………..164..…….…12…..….7.32%

India…….….………152………..…3.……..1.97%

Russia…….…….…147………..…0……….0%

Kuwait……….…….142..…………0…..…..0%

Lebanon……..….…133..…………3….……2.26%

San Marino…………119………….11….…..9.24%

Peru………….………117………..…4……….3.42%

South Africa…..……116………..…4……….3.45%

UAE……………..….113………..…0…..….0%

Ecuador.….…..……111………..…2……….1.80%

Taiwan…………..…100…..……….1…..…..1.00%

Turkey…………….….98…..……….1….……1.02%

Slovakia…………..….97………..…1….……1.03%

Mexico…….….………93………..…0….……0%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 98 cases so far:

 

Vietnam….……….…68…………0……..…..0%

Azerbaijan..….………28……..…1………….3.57%

Palestine…..…………26?……….0………….0%

Afghanistan….………22……..…0………….0%

New Zealand…….….20……..…0…………0%

Ukraine…………..…..14.…….…2…….….14.29%

North Korea..…………0……..…0…….……0%

Syria……….…………..0………..0…….……0%

Diamond Princess……712……..7………….0.98%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:33.12 AM EST. It was updated thrice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. The S. Korean mortality rate is now at 1%. They have tested more than 240,000 of their people. This is about a good and complete reporting as we are going to see in the real world. It is getting harder to make the argument that the mortality rate is much less than 1%, even assuming a large number of cases were not reported.
   2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 250,000 in cases Italy and over 100,000 cases in Iran.
   1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 119 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.35% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 31,506 cases is third (0.052%)
      1. If they really have over 250,000 cases then we are looking at over 0.4%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
   3. Iran is now fourth with population of 83,183,741 and 17,361 cases. This is 0.021% infected. If they have over 100,000 cases then this is 0.12% infected.
   4. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,413 cases is now fifth (0.016%)
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
   1. Also, Hong Kong’s 181 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
5. Palestine was reported last Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 82,107 out of 204,255 cases (and 8,243 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.

Well, it was not my intention for this to become a coronavirus blog….but hard to ignore and it is affecting our lives. The number of cases around the world have expanded noticeably since my blog post two days ago. There are now more reported cases outside of China than inside China.

China continues to report very few new cases. For the last five days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020. This is 75 cases in the last three days or 25 cases a day. Right now, the there are more new reported cases in South Korea than there are in China. Does this mean that they can return to a more normal life in a couple of weeks?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……169,387….6,513…..…3.85%

China.……………81,020….3,213…..…3.97%

Italy………………24,747….1,809…..….7.31%

Iran………….…..13,938……..724…..….5.19%

S. Korea…….……8,162………75…..….0.92%

Spain……….….…7,844..……292………3.72%

Germany…….……5,813………13…..….0.22%

France………….…5,437….…127…..….2.34%

United States…….3,774………69…..….1.83%

Switzerland………2,200….…..14…..….0.64%

Denmark..……….1,739…………2…..….0.12%

United Kingdom…1,395……….35………2.51%

Norway……….….1,256..………3………0.24%

Netherlands.….…1,136.…..….20.….….1.76%

Sweden…..………1,032……..…3….…..0.29%

 

Fourteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Belgium….…….….886…………4…..…..0.45%

Austria……………..860..…..……1……….0.12%

Japan………………839..…….…22.………2.62%

Malaysia….…..……428…………0……….0%

Qatar..………….….401..……..…0…..…..0%

Canada……..……..339…………1…..…..0.29%

Greece..….….…….331……….…4…..…..1.21%

Australia……………297..….….…3…..…..1.01%

Czech Rep……..…293…….……0…..…..0%

Israel…….…….…..251………….0…..…..0%

Portugal.…..….……245…..…..…0……….0%

Finland….…..……..244……….…0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..226……….…0…..…..0%

Slovenia….………..219…..…..…1…..…..0.46%

Bahrain………….…214……….…0…..…..0%

Brazil……………….200…..………0……….0%

Iceland……………..180…..………0……….0%

Estonia…..…………171…….……0………..0%

Hong Kong…………149……..……4………2.11%

Philippines…….…..140………….12…..…..8.57%

Romania……………139…….……0…..…..0%

Ireland………………129………..…2.…..….1.55%

Egypt………….……126…….……2……….1.59%

Poland………………125…….……3……….2.40%

Iraq…..……….……..124..…….…10……….8.06%

Saudi Arabia……….118……………0………0%

Indonesia….………..117………..…5……….4.27%

Thailand.…..……….114………..…1……….0.88%

India…….….…..……113………..…2.………1.77%

Kuwait……….……….112..…………0….…….0%

San Marino….………109……………7………..6.42%

Lebanon………….…..99..……….…3………..3.03%

UAE…………….……..98………..…0………..0%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 98 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..63…..….……0…..……..0%

Taiwan………..…..….59…..……..…1….……..1.69%

Vietnam….……..….…56…..….……0…….…..0%

Pakistan………………53…..….……0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….43……………0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Azerbaijan..….…….…23……….……1…..……..4.35%

Afghanistan….…….…16……….……0…..……..0%

New Zealand…………..8………….…0………….0%

Ukraine…………….……3..….…….…1………….33.33%

North Korea..……..…..0…..….….…0……….…..0%

Syria……….……….…..0…..….….…0………..…..0%

Diamond Princess..…696……..…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/15/20 as of 11:33.33 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. The S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
   2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 180,000 in cases Italy and over 70,000 cases in Iran.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 109 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.32% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 24,747 cases is third (0.04%)
      1. If they really have over 180,000 cases then we are looking at around 0.3%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
   3. Iran is now fourth with population of 83,183,741 and 13,938 cases. This is 0.017% infected. If they have over 70,000 cases then this is 0.084% infected.
   4. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,162 cases is now fifth (0.016%)
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
   1. Also, Hong Kong’s 149 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 77,257 out of 169,387 cases (and 6,513 deaths). The new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China).

Could not update my post yesterday on the subject because the CSSE database was struggling to keep up with all the new reports. There has been an explosion of cases in Europe, although that may be due to better testing.

The coronavirus is now affecting my life, with my son’s school closed down until April 10, my wife’s business trip to Europe next week was cancelled, the NHL has cancelled all their games and the Australian Grand Prix has been cancelled. Now what? I guess I will do another blog post….about the virus.

China continues to report very few cases. For the last four days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Yesterday it was 80,945, now it is 80,976, or 31 more cases. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……149,293….5,609…..…3.76%

China.………..…80,976…..3,189…..…3.94%

Italy…………..…17,660…..1,266…..….7.17%

Iran……………..12,729…..…611…..….4.80%

S. Korea…………8,086………72…..….0.89%

Spain………….…6,023..……191………3.17%

Germany…………3,953……….8……….0.20%

France……………3,667………79……….2.15%

United States……2,177………47…..….2.16%

Switzerland………1,359………..8……….0.59%

United Kingdom…1,143……….21………1.84%

 

Ten countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Norway………..….996..…………1………0.10%

Sweden…..……….944……..……2….…..0.21%

Denmark..…….…..836…..………0…..….0%

Netherlands.………804.………..10.….….1.24%

Japan………………725..……..…21.…..…2.90%

Belgium….…….….689……..……4…..…..0.58%

Austria……………..602..…………1……….0.17%

Qatar..………….….337..…………0…..…..0%

Australia……………250..……….…3…..…..1.20%

Finland….…..……..223……..……0…..…..0%

Bahrain………….…210……..……0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..200……..……0…..…..0%

Canada……..…….198……………1…..…..0.51%

Malaysia….…..…..197……………0……….0%

Greece..….….……190……………1…..…..0.53%

Israel…….…….….164…………….0…..…..0%

Iceland……………156…..……..…0……….0%

Brazil………………151…..…..……0……….0%

Czech Rep……..…150……………0…..…..0%

Slovenia….……….141…..…..……0…..…..0%

Hong Kong…….….140…..,….……4………2.11%

Portugal.…..….…..112…..….……0……….0%

Estonia…..…………109……………0….…..0%

Romania……………102……………0…..…..0%

Iraq…..……….……101..……………9……….8.91%

Kuwait……….….…100..…….……0….…….0%

Philippines……..……98…..……..…8………..8.16%

Indonesia….……..…96…..……..…2………..2.08%

Lebanon………….…93..….…….…3………..3.23%

Egypt…………..……93……………2………..2.15%

Ireland………………90…..…..……1.……….1.11%

India…….….…..……87……….……2.…….…2.30%

Saudi Arabia……..….86…..….……0…………0%

UAE…………….….…85……………0….……..0%

Poland…………….….84……………2…….…..2.38%

Thailand.…..…………82………….…1……..…1.22%

San Marino….…..…..80…………….5…….…..6.25%

Vietnam….……..……53…..…..……0…….…..0%

Taiwan………..…..….53…..……..…1….……..1.89%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..47…..….……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………………28…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….15……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….……..…11……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5………….…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…1………..100%

North Korea..…………..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/14/20 as of 11:33.17 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
   1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
   2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 120,000 in cases Italy and over 60,000 cases in Iran.
3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 80 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.24% infected.
   1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
   2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 17,660 cases is third (0.029%)
      1. If they really have over 120,000 case then we are looking at around 0.2%, a figure similar to San Marino.
   3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,086 cases is fourth (0.016)
4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 72,042 out of 149,293 cases (and 5,609 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

Doing a Friday the 13th update even though nothing has drastically changed other than my kid’s school has been closed for the day. It is not under control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.9K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,100 cases or an average of 85 cases a day over the last 13 days. For the last three days they have consistent reported 80.9K cases. So it is only growing by a dozen or so a day. Right now they are at 80,945. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

World Wide…….135,318……4,981…..…3.68%

China.……….……80,945……3,176………3.92%

Italy…………..……15,113……1,016…..….6.72%

Iran………………..10,075………429…..….4.26%

S. Korea……………7,869………..66…..….0.84%

Spain…………….…3,864..………90………2.33%

Germany……………3,059…………6…..….0.20%

France………………2,879……..…61………2.12%

United States………1,701……..….40….….2.35%

 

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

Switzerland………..858……….…8…..…..0.93%

Denmark..……..….788….….……0……….0%

Norway…………….702..…………0……….0%

Japan………….……639..…….…16.………2.50%

Netherlands.………614..…….……5.……….0.81%

Sweden…..…….….599….….……1………..0.17%

United Kingdom..…593…….…..…8…..…..1.35%

Belgium….……..….399……………3…..…..0.75%

Austria……….….….302..…….……1……….0.33%

Qatar..……….….….262..….………0…..…..0%

Bahrain………..……189……………0…..…..0%

Singapore……….….187……………0…..…..0%

Finland….………..….155……………0…..…..0%

Malaysia….…………149……………0……….0%

Hong Kong….…..….134…..,….……4……….2.99%

Greece..….….………133……………1…..…..0.75%

Israel…….……….….131……………0…..…..0%

Australia…..….…..…128..….………3…..…..2.34%

Canada……..……….117……………1…..…..0.85%

Czech Rep………..…117……………0…..…..0%

Iceland………….……103…..…..……0………..0%

Slovenia….….………..89…….………0………..0%

UAE……..………….…85……….……0………..0%

Kuwait………….…..…80……….……0….…….0%

Egypt……………..……80……….……2………..2.50%

Iraq…..…………………79..…..………8………10.13%

Portugal.…..……..……78…..….……0…….…..0%

Brazil……….……..……77…..….……0…….…..0%

Thailand.…..……..……75…..….……1…………1.33%

India…….….……..……74…..….……1.…………1.35%

Romania…..……..……70…..….……0…..……..0%

Ireland…………….……70…..….……1.………….1.43%

San Marino….…….…..69…..……….5…..……..7.25%

Lebanon……….………66..….………3……..…..4.54%

Saudi Arabia…..…..….62…..….,……0…..……..0%

Poland………….….….58……………1…..……..1.72%

Philippines…..…….….52…..….……5…………..9.62%

Taiwan………..…….….50…..….……1…..……..2.00%

 

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/13/20 as of 7:55.12 AM EST. I did try to do an update at 1:24 PM but it appears that the CSSE database has gaps in it. As of their 12:53.03 PM update they were missing California, Florida and other parts of the U.S. So they were only reporting 1,268 cases when I gather the number is around 1,700. They were only reporting 33 deaths (and none in California or Florida) while I gather the real number is at 41. I will do an update when they have sorted out their database (and Palestine is also still not listed). It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Switzerland………..613……..….……4….……..0.65%

Norway………….….598..……………0……..….0%

Japan…………..…..581..………..…12.…….…2.07%

Netherlands.…..……503..……………5.……….0.99%

Sweden…..……..….500….…………0…….…..0%

Denmark..………….442…….………0………..0%

United Kingdom……373……..…..…6………..1.61%

Belgium….………….314….…………1………..0.32%

Qatar..……..…….….262..…..………0………..0%

Austria……..…….….206..…..………0………..0%

Bahrain……..………189…….………0………..0%

Singapore………….178…….………0………..0%

Malaysia….……..…149…….………0…….…..0%

Hong Kong……..….126…..,….……3………..2.94%

Australia…..……..…128..….………3….……..2.34%

Canada…….……..….101……………1….……..1.08%

Greece…………………90……………0…..……..0%

Iceland…………..…….85…..….……0…..……..0%

Israel……………….…..79……………0…..……..0%

UAE……..………..……74…..….……0…..……..0%

Kuwait………….…..…72..…………0…………..0%

Iraq…..…………………71..…………7…………..0%