Mystics & Statistics

A blog on quantitative historical analysis hosted by The Dupuy Institute

Episode Nungesser

Found a description of Nungesser’s fight in the French History of the Second Hussar Regiment published in 1920. This is the follow-up to this post:

Nungesser’s first battle

The episode occurred on 31 August/1 September 1914. The previous entry was 29 August (page 34), the next entry was dated 2 September.

Here is the translated account (according to Google Translate French as I don’t know French):

Nungesser episode. – However the Nungesser rider who joined the 148th combat train with his car received at 5 p.m. from the battalion commander of tail (battalion of the 53rd D. I.) the mission to go to all price in Laon, seek reinforcements. Leaving his wounded, Dubois, at the Coucy ambulance, Nungesser leaves with two infantrymen in his car. In the forest of Saint-Gobain he comes across posts enemies, who pulling on the engine immobilize the car.

Crawling in the ditches, hoping to escape to the enemies, the hussar and the two infantrymen saw arrive a 40 horse Mors ridden by four officers: a colonel, a captain of white cuirassiers and two lieutenants. Nungesser and his two comrades open fire and after having met the retort, can kill all the Germans. Putting on coats and caps of the dead, they jump in the car, Nungesser driving, re-enter our lines and arrive at E. Mr. where they bring back the important papers on the enemy officers. The general, enthusiastic, keeps Nungesser for lunch. “You are a hussar – he adds – you took a Mors, I give it to you, you will be the hussar of Mors 1. “

 

The footnote reads

1. This adventurous hussar had barely two months of service. Originally from Valenciennes, left at the age of fifteen for the Republic Argentina, he had been a cowboy there, then began his aviator training there. Arrived at the regiment at the end of June 1914, he had asked not to go to the deposit and immediately be paid into an active squadron.

The colonel had made him ride a difficult horse which he had known how to take advantage of and satisfaction had been given to his desire.

From the hands of the general of the 53 D. I. he received the Military Medal and brigadier’s stripes; after the Battle of the Marne, he was a house-marshal and joined the air force.

On a “Voisin”, he carried out 53 bombardments during the day and night, then taking the fighter monoplane, he descends from the aviatiks whose one which flew over Nancy. The city having opened a subscription in his honor he pays the proceeds to the hospitals.

A moving duel, in which he fires his last machine-gun band, 10 meters from his opponent earned him the Legion of Honor.

Following an injury which took away part of the palace, in 1916 he received the stripes of second lieutenant. At the end of hostilities he was a lieutenant, an officer of the Legion of Honor and was ranked second * in the ace behind Fonck; he had 43 victories. His head was set price by the Germans. Such was the career of this astonishing boy, constantly punished for his anti-regulatory loops, without ceaselessly rewarded for his acts of heroism.

 

* Charles Nungesser was the third highest scoring ace in French service. The late George Guynemer (1894-1917) with 54 claimed kills was second.

 

I did receive some assistance from http://www.overthefront.com in locating this document.

 

P.S. The link to the text is here: https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6420573b/f14.image

The Nungesser story is on pages 36-37 (or pages 46-47 in the file).

P.P.S. The picture of Nungesser is from the 1925 Hollywood movie The Sky Raider.

P.P.P.S.

The paragraph below is from page 36, under the discussion of the 1st Squadron and just before the discussion of the Nungesser Episode. This event appears to be dated 29 August.

The mayor of Coucy makes a car available to the Lieutenant Ninnin to evacuate Anizy; Nungesser gets behind the wheel but the car finds the road blocked by the enemy; Lieutenant Ninnin goes back on horseback and by joins the 1st Shooters, rearguard of the 13th C. A. Evacuated on the 4th in Montmirail, he returned ten days later at the 2nd Hussars.

And then it goes into the discussion of the “Nungesser Episode.”

Armor Attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh

Over the last week fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an area of Azerbaijan that broke away from Azerbaijan with the help of Armenia when the Soviet Union was breaking up in 1991. They went to war over it in 1991-92 and Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself the independent Republic of Artsakh on 10 December 1991.

Not sure what caused this conflict in the Caucasus to flair back up, Both of these nations have a surplus of old Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers and fighting vehicles. The predominantly Christian Armenia tends to be supported by Russia while the predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan tends to be supported by Turkey. This is not the first time in history that Russia and Turkey had an argument over this region.

There was an article published yesterday that I found interesting:

https://news.yahoo.com/armor-attrition-nagorno-karabakh-battle-225735581.html

A few highlights:

  1. 95 people have been killed (including 11 civilians).
    1. Wikipeida is reporting higher losses. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
      1. 152 Armenia servicemen killed
      2. 30+ Azerbaijan servicemen killed
      3. 28-30 Syrian fighters killed
      4. 19 Azerbaijani and 13 Armenian civilians killed.
  2. Armenia claims it has destroyed 137 tanks (doubtful).
  3. Azerbaijan claims it has destroyed 130 tanks and ACVs (doubtful).

Also, the video in the article of two tanks in a column being shot is pretty interesting.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 26

Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there were 3,387 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,647 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 thirteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….15,050…..15,326…….627
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,877……3,995…….150
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,741……3,852………69
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….20,437…..20,981…….588
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….69…..…..70……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….134……..137………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,720…..6,889….…125
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……12,215…12,567….…205
Manassas…………………..41,641….…..1,904……1,931………26
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..607.…….614…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,971..…2,028……..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….531……..547…..….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,933.…22,584..…849
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,715.…29,494..…828
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..117,904…121,015…3,512

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.90%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.26% or one confirmed case for every 44 people. This is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,667 cases (2,541 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,460 cases (1,390 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,246 confirmed cases (1,105 last week) and 29 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,306 confirmed cases (1,203 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions this last week, so the number of new cases is now lower. They may have been better served to have tighter restrictions before they had a problem until waiting until they do.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,997 cases this week (1,783 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running a little under a thousand new cases a day right now (901 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 272 cases (264 last week) and 2 deaths.

Nungesser’s first battle

Charles Nungesser (1892-1927) became the third highest scoring ace in French service during World War I with 43 claimed kills (3 shared). In 1914, he was with the 2nd Regiment of Hussars. His first fight was a ground skirmish behind the lines.

His actual citation reads:

“Brigadier [Corporal] of the 2nd Light Cavalry Regiment, on 3 September 1914, with his officer having been wounded during the course of a reconnaissance, he at first sheltered him, then with the assistance of several foot soldiers, after having replaced the officer who was disabled, he secured an auto and brought back the papers by crossing an area under fire by the enemy.” – Medaille Militaire citation

Now another book claims:

“Enlisting in the 2e Regiment de Hussards after war broke out, he ambushed and killed the four occupants of a Mors automobile on 3 September and drove it back to French lines, earning himself the Medaille Militaire and the car.”

Is there a better and more detailed account of this event?

 

P.S. The picture is of a 1914 MORS 12/15 CV from the movie Aces High (1976).

P.P.S. From what I have been able to determine the 2nd Hussar Regiment on the 3rd of September was at  “Aisne, Courpopil, Farm de la Gouttier, Epied, Courbin and Maison-rouge.” (source:  https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/2e_r%C3%A9giment_de_hussards)

P.P.P.S I have the 2nd Hussar Rgt reporting to the 4th Light Cavalry Brigade (Verdun) reporting to the 4th Cavalry Division (Sedan) which on 2 August was reporting to the II Army Corps which reported to the Fourth Army on 8 August 1914. Then I lose it as it is not reported with the II Army Corps on 5 August and it ends up in September 1914 reporting to the Second Cavalry Corps, which I am not sure who they reported to (in December 1914 they report to the “Groupement de Nieuport”).

P.P.P.P.S. Confirmation of award (Citations a l’Ordre de l’Armee): https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6420573b/f14.image

 

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 7

Yesterday was the 50th day of protests. Through various twitter accounts one can see all the protests throughout the country. They are widespread and the protesters are clearly dawn from all parts of society and all age groups. Lots of large protests in small towns. News reports are saying “about” 100,000 protesters in Minsk and protests in nine other cities. The videos I am seeing are showing protests in some pretty small towns, so not sure where that count comes from. It was clear from the videos that there are tens of thousand of protesters in Minsk, but it may not have been a hundred thousand. The weather was not great this weekend. Another reported 350 or so people detained or arrested on Sunday.

Lukashenko has taken the oath of office for his new term, so it appears that both sides have dug in.

Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months.  The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from a week ago. She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

 

Sweden versus the World

Sweden is unique in that they were one of the few countries in the Western World that did not shut down to try to contain the coronavirus. Let’s briefly take a look and see how that worked:

Country…Population…Cases…..Deaths….Infection Rate…Death Rate…Morality Rate

Sweden….10.3………….90,923…….5,880…..0.0088…………..0.00057…………6.5%

Denmark….5.8………….13,627……….270…..0.0023…………..0.00005…………2.0%

Norway……5.4………….26,637……….649…..0.0048…………..0.00012…………2.4%

.

U.S………328.2………7,081,505…204,527….0.0216…………..0.00062………….2.9%

UK………..67.9…………431,824…..42,060…..0.0064…………..0.00062………….9.7%

Italy………60.3………….308,104….35,818…..0.0051…………..0.00059………..11.6%

 

This data is from the Johns Hopkins website as of 9:23 AM. Population is in millions and is the 2020 estimates.

A few observations:

  1. Sweden’s mortality rate is a more than 10 times higher then Denmark, which did do a strict lockdown.
  2. Note that the U.S., UK and Italy have a higher mortality rate even though Sweden has not done a lockdown.
    1. The U.S. mortality rate is the highest of any developed nation in the world.
  3. The differences in mortality rates is certainly strongly influenced by the amount of testing done. The high mortality rate of Italy, UK and Sweden is certainly because of less extensive testing or failure to test.
    1. The real mortality rate is probably between 0.5% and 2%.
  4. Of course, there is no way of knowing how accurate are each of these statistics. For example, who is counted as killed by the disease does vary from country to country (for example: Germany versus Belgium).
  5. I have no way of easily comparing the economic impact of the various policies.
  6. One could postulate that If Sweden has Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have over 5,000 less deaths.
  7. One could postulate that if the United States had Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have almost 190,000 less deaths.
    1. Keep in mind these numbers are particularly fuzzy due to different reporting standards and definitions.

The picture is of a Grenadier of the Swedish Royal Guard. Sweden has not been in a war since 1815.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 25

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,387 new cases. Last week week there were 3,317 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now. Still, it does not appear to be getting any better.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,391 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twelve weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,376…..15,050……..621
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,779……3,877……..148
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,628……3,741…..….68
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….19,837…..20,437…….583
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….66……..…69…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….132………134………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,523…….6,720……123
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….11,810…..12,215……201
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,869…….1,904……..25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..…….….598……….607.….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,880….…1,971..…..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….518….……531..…….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,467……21,933……841
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,034……28,715……821
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..114,517….117,904…3,473

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.95%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.20% or one confirmed case for every 46 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students two weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students around a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,541 cases (2,293 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,390 cases (1,312 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,203 confirmed cases (1,145 last week) and 21 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 1,105 confirmed cases (935 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a a growth in cases since they reopened, now around two hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are still not that actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines. They report 569 cases since 17 August, which I gather is a higher percentage of student population then for Virginia Tech.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,783 cases this week (1,554 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (862 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 264 cases (260 last week) and 2 deaths.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 6

Well sizable protests continued this weekend in Belarus, although they may not be as big as before. May have been less then 100,000 people. News reports are saying tens of thousands, while one opposition paper is claiming 150,000. The Belarus police claim 20,000 protestors all over the country. As both sides are expected to over/under estimate crowd sizes the real number of probably somewhere in between these two estimates. I suspect the protest in Minsk was less than 100,000. There may have been 200,000 protestors a couple of weeks ago. There were also protests in Brest, Gomel and other places.

Lukashenko’s police were a little heavier handed than in the last two weeks, detaining or arresting over 400 people on Sunday.

Not sure I know what was decided in Lukashenko’s meeting with Putin last week, but so far nothing significant has happened.

It does appear that this is turning into a waiting game, where Lukashenko is trying to ride out the protests and hope that over time they loose virulence. This is all being done in an environment of the coronavirus and what is certainly a declining economy. In the case of the coronavirus, it is reported for Belarus (population: 9.4 million, 80K square miles of area, GDP 63.6 billion, per capita income $6,744 or $21,233 PPP) that they have 75,898 cases and 785 deaths. Just to compare to the U.S. state of Virginia (population 8.5 million 42K square miles of area, GDP 476.4 billion, per capital income $56,047), Virginia has 141,022 cases and 3,019 deaths. There is reason to suspect the accuracy of Belarus’ statistics. See the two graphs below.

It is hard for governments to stay in power in a declining economy (although Venezuela manages) and between protests and coronavirus (and declining population and potential “brain drain”), it is hard for this economy to anything other than decline.

This may go on for a while.

 

P.S. Population of Belarus over time:

P.P.S. The Belarus coronavirus graph:

In light of the all the protests and the lack of social distancing efforts by the government, it is hard to believe that the number of cases have declined from their peak and have not rebounded.

P.P.P.S. The Virginia coronavirus graph:

P.P.P.P.S. The detained protestor was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Attrition for $900

I was on the phone with someone earlier today and he told me that Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War was on sale on Amazon.com for only $900. I took a look, and sure enough, they have used one for $121.00 and a new one $890. That is it.

On the other hand, we still have new copies for sale for the list place of $19.95. See here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/booksfs.htm

I have not taken inventory in a while, but we still have 40 or so available.

Ordering information is here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/order.htm

Maybe I should start selling on Amazon.com and undercut them with an offer of $889.99.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 24

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,317 new cases. Last week week there were 3,132 new cases. This is not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,229 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eleven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,362…..14,376……..617
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..3,679…….3,779……..146
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..3,546…….3,628……….66
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……19,177……19,837……..572
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……..….66…………66…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….126……….132…….…..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….6,273…….6,523………119
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..11,364……11,810……..196
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,842…….1,869…..…..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………587……….598…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..1,799…….1,880………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…..511……….518…………5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..20,766……21,467……..835
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..27,102……28,034……..814
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…111,200….114,517…..3,428

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.99%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.13% or one confirmed case for every 47 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA opened up for students a week ago. The other two universities opened up for students three or four weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,293 cases (1,989 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,312 cases (1,183 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Week before last they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,145 confirmed cases (1,101 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 935 confirmed cases (819 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a small boom in cases since they reopened, over a hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are not actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines.

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students). That is a nice indication of the prevalence of active cases.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,554 cases this week (1,073 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (935 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 260 cases (254 last week) and 2 deaths.