Mystics & Statistics

A blog on quantitative historical analysis hosted by The Dupuy Institute

“Our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time”

Someone just asked me about a quote in the following article:
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/army-wants-smaller-brigades-stronger-divisions-lots-of-robots/

The quote is:

“Historical data on direct-fire engagements “shows that our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time,” Sando said. “We don’t like those odds, [so] we want to avoid the close fight if we can. If we can’t avoid it, we want to enter it under conditions that are favorable to us.”

The question was: did this statistic come from us or do we know where it came from? Well, it definitely did not come from our work or Trevor Dupuy’s work. I have never heard of such a claim before.

Does anyone know where this came from? Is there some study or piece of quantitative historical analysis that this claim is based upon. I have my doubts about the accuracy of this claim.

If the data was drawn from unconventional (recent) warfare scenarios, then by nature of those conflicts, the insurgents initiate engagements more often than the counterinsurgents do. Not sure it would be as high as 4-to-1.

If it was drawn from conventional war scenarios, then by their nature it should be 50/50, unless you are always the attacker. Even then I am not it would be as high as 4-to-1.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 32

Weekly update number 32 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 7,348 new cases. Last week there were 4,256 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 35K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (61K on 6 Nov), Spain (21K on 9 Nov), Germany (27K) and Russia (21K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 136K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (43 cases on 8 Nov), Japan (1,296), South Korea (146), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (11), Singapore (9), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nineteen weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….17,524……18,379……..657
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,813……..5,130……..155
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,377……..4,559………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….24,458..….25,791…….609
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….78…………82……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..165…..……178……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….8,105……..8,560……134
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,768..…..15.462……227
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,066…..…2,116…….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….662………..676……..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,480.….…2,661…….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….603………..624…..…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….26,398…..27,969……899
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….33,488…..35,146……876
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..139,985….147,333…3,712

This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.52%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 61 new fatalities reported out of 7,348 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.8%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.75% or one confirmed case for every 36 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,224 cases (3,146 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,933 cases (1,827 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,697 confirmed cases (1,626 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,682 confirmed cases (1,619 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,295 cases this week (3,009 last week) and 7 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,435 yesterday) and it seems to be increasing.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 463 cases (396 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Disputed Elections – week 13

Well, from this very distant and poorly informed vantage point, things do not look good for the protest movement in Belarus. Tens of thousands protested again this weekend, but Lukashenko has detained or arrested more than 800 protestors and maybe more than a thousand. He has been arresting 200-300 each week, but this appears to be an increase in aggressiveness on the part of the government. They were very aggressive in the first week of protests with nearly 7,000 detained, but this seemed to fuel the protests. They then backed down and kept their detentions and arrests at a lower level. The fact that they have increased arrests now indicates to me that the government has grown more confident and thinks they can increase the pressure on the protestors and put an end to this.

Two weeks ago, and in a number of weeks before that, the opposition put out more than 100,000 protestors each weekend. They also called for strikes two weeks ago. I gather the strikes have not been widespread and the number of protestors in the street has been well less than 100,000 this weekend and on the previous weekend. Nobody seems to be reporting figures anymore on this, which I think is kind of significant. With the strikes not being widespread and universal, the number of protestors diminishing, and the arrests increasing, it appears that the balance has shifted towards Lukashenko and against the opposition.

By the way, there were also protests in Georgia this weekend (the Georgia mentioned in the Beatles’ song, not the Ray Charles’ song). The Georgian police fired water cannons at hundred of protestors calling for a re-run of the Oct. 31 parliamentary elections, which they claim were rigged. They also had tens of thousands of protestors this weekend and protests are continuing.

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Jeschonnek’s Suicide – 18 August 1943

General Hans Jeschonnek, the Chief of Staff of the Luftwaffe, committed suicide on 18 August 1943. This account has been garbled in a number of books, so here is my current write-up on the story:

Post-Mortem

General Hans Jeschonnek’s attempts to escape to the field by taking over command of the Fourth Air Fleet had failed. After the British bombing of Hamburg on 24/25 July, Goering decided that Jeschonnek would remain as chief of staff. Trapped in an impossible job, Jeschonnek was also affected by the recent loss of his father, brother, and brother-in-law. On the night of 17 August, the RAF bombed the missile base at Peenemuende.[1]

Jeschonnek had already displayed considerable sensitivity, having almost had a nervous breakdown in November 1941 and spending three days in bed after General Udet (the famous World War I ace) had committed suicide and General Wilberg and the famous ace Major Moelders had been killed in separate air crashes while flying to Udet’s funeral. He had also previously attempted suicide himself. During the day of 18 August, the young chief of staff wrote a number of suicide notes, including one short note that said “I can no longer work together with the Reichsmarschall [Goering]. Long live the Fuehrer!” He also wrote a memorandum to Hitler that was critical of his boss, Goering. He then shot himself in his office on the command train of the Luftwaffe, in what is now Goldap, Poland (at the time part of East Prussia). It was near Hitler’s command post, the Wolf’s Lair in East Prussia.[2] He was 44 years old.

 

 

[1] There is a claim in many accounts that Adolf Hitler called Jeschonnek on the afternoon of 17 August or the morning of 18 August to again criticize the Luftwaffe, telling him “You know what to do” or “You know what is left for you to do now.” This story apparently comes from Field Marshal Erhard Milch, the Air Inspector General, who testified that Jeschonnek had a story stormy session with Hitler. This entire story is disputed and dismissed by Prof. Richard Suchenwirth, Command and Leadership in the German Air Force (USAF Historical Division, Aerospace Studies Institute, Air University, July 1969), page 288. Suchenwirth states “It is untrue, as Milch has claimed, that Jeschonnek had had a heated discussion with Hitler on the afternoon preceding his suicide, during which Hitler had told him that the failures were his responsibility and that he “ought to know now what was expect of him.” This account is denied by those who were best informed about the situation.”

[2] Suchenwirth, pages 284-290. Many accounts state that Jeschonnek committed suicide at Hitler’s command post, the Wolf’s Lair in East Prussia, on 18 or 19 January 1943. His gravestone gives his date of death as 18 January 1943 (see https://ww2gravestone.com/people/jeschonnek-hans/). The date of his death was officially posted as 19 January 1943 by Hermann Goering to disconnect it from the Peenemunde bombing so as to hide the manner and reason for his death. They also published that he died from a hemorrhage of the stomach.

 

One does note that some otherwise credible accounts still give the date of his death as 19 August 1943: for example:

http://www.ww2.dk/Lw%20Offz%20-%20G-K%20Apr%202020%20.pdf

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 31

Weekly update number 31 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,256 new cases. Last week there were 4,326 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 28K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (46K on 1 Nov), Spain (19K), Germany (18K on 2 Nov) and Russia (18K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 92K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (55 cases on 2 Nov), Japan (878), South Korea (118), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (10), Singapore (9), Australia (12) and New Zealand (3). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eighteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:24 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,973..…17,524……647
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,630……4,813……154
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..4,269…….4,377……..74
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….23,648.…24,458..…604
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….75………78……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..159…….165…..…..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….7,876…..8,105……132
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,235…14,768..…223
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…..2,045….2,066…..…27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……648….…662……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,373….2,480.……22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….588……603………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….25,562…26,398…..876
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….32,648…33,488…..863
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..135,729..139,985..3,651

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.61%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were only 15 new fatalities reported out of 4,256 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.4%. The population known to have been infected is 2.61% or one confirmed case for every 38 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,146 cases (3,040 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,827 cases (1,764 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,626 confirmed cases (1,597 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,619 confirmed cases (1,585 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,009 cases this week (2,788 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,261 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up (maybe).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 396 cases (370 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Speaking of Disputed Elections (Belarus – week 12)

Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other hand, the protest estimates for this weekend seems to be around 20,000 vice the hundred thousand they had on some weekends.

I have still not seen any analysis as to whether extended protests result in a higher probability of replacing the existing government. I guess this is something I could do if I wanted to stop work on my books for the next six months. 

Anyhow, this protest has now gone on for three months, which is about as long as the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine went (2013-2014).

 

P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:

“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:

  1. Lukashenko must announce his resignation.

  2. Street violence must stop completely.

  3. All political prisoners must be released.

If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”

P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Below is an article on the counts of losses from Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based upon viewing of drone footage, etc. by individuals some distance from the conflict. The numbers should be viewed with considerable caution. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html

They state: “This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here.” 

 

Anyhow, their count is:

………………………….Artsakh/Armenia……..Azerbaijan
Tanks……………………………..177………….26

AFVs……………………………….34………….11

IFVs………………………………..42………….24

Aircraft and Helicopters…………..0…………..10

Towed Artillery…………………..138

SP Artillery………………………..17

MLRS……………………………..72

Trucks, vehicles and jeeps……408………….21

 

Waffen-SS Tiger Crews At Kursk

Just wanted to make you aware of a book that has just been released written by Col. French L. Maclean (USA, ret.) called “Waffen-SS Tiger Crews at Kursk” (Schiffer Military, Atlen, PA, 2020). I am graciously listed in his acknowledgements, although my involvement was minimal (a few emails exchanged and one long pleasant meeting for coffee). It may be a while before I actually sit down and go through it, as I am busy finishing up a book about the things that are flying over the Tigers.

When we first set the blog up we decided not to do book reviews on this blog. I will probably hold to that. There are a number of reasons for that: 1) I know of lot of these people, 2) it is hard to review a book if you are not an expert in the area (and there are very few areas I am expert in), 3) it is hard not to find errors in books on subjects that  you are an expert (and sometimes it is as often as much as one error a page), 4) if you do know the subject, then it ends up taking a lot of time (man-weeks) as you check and cross-check each point, 5) I tend to be hyper-critical, and 6) I have been known to get somewhat sarcastic and caustic when it is late at night and after a few drinks….so….I don’t review books.

 

Tank losses in Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

In case you have been distracted by all the U.S. news lately, there has been a significant conflict for the last month between Azerbaijan-Armenia over Nogorno-Karabakh that resulted in dozens of tanks lost, many due to drones and loitering munitions. This is conventional war. We have not done any systematic analysis of this, so I am hesitant to make any comments on it, but it is a significant event, in that a number of Armenian tanks were taken out by Azerbaijani drones. I have found the twitter accounts @RALee85 and @Rebel44CZ and @oryxspioenkop to be worth following. They tend to include a lot of the videos that have been released from this fight.

This is an article on the subject that came out this week:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/attack-drones-dominating-tanks-armenia-085624016.html

A few highlights:
.

  1. Armenia says it has lost around 900 servicemen.
  2. Actual casualties are probably higher.
  3. Open source analysis by Forbes magazine has tracked the destruction by drones of around 200 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, plus 300 soft-skinned military vehicles.
  4. It is kind of one-sided, as Armenia does not have such a collection of drones (it helps to have oil).

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 30

Weekly update number 30 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,326 new cases. Last week there were 4,012 new cases. So it continues to rise. So last month we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 22K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad across Europe, in the UK (23K cases yesterday), France (35K), Spain (18K), Germany (13K) and Russia (16K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 73K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (47 cases yesterday), Japan (643), South Korea (103), Vietnam (3), Australia (14) and New Zealand (2). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 seventeen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,498……16,973..…644
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,437……..4,630……154
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,144….…4,269….….74
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….22,849……23,648……605
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….75……..….75……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..157……….159………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….7,634….…7,876…….130
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……13,735……14,235……223
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…..2,018……..2,045….…27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……634………..648………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,287……..2,373….…21
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….576……….588………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….24,664……25,562…..870
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….31,695……32,648…..859
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..131,403….135,729…3,636

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.68%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.53% or one confirmed case for every 40 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,040 cases (2,945 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,764 cases (1,701 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,597 confirmed cases (1,536 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,585 confirmed cases (1,501 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,788 cases this week (2,565 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,123 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up (maybe).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 370 cases (341 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.