*This excludes the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6), which is still on the rolls but because of the fire of 12 July 2020 is clearly never returning to duty.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 44 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,498 new cases. Last week it was 16,058 new cases and the week before it was 18,934 new cases. Thirteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday. It remains high in the UK (17K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (29K), Germany (8K) and Russia (16K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 114K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (50 cases), Japan (2,313), South Korea (467), Taiwan (3), Vietnam (32), Singapore (19), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3 cases on 1 Feb).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:21 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….35,865…..37,199……..926 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..11,414…..11,867……..203 Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,236…….9,544……..104 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……58,092….60,265………792 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.…….….285………296…………6 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…….413………437………..12 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…19,508….20,791………184
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….34,314…..35,693………317 Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,608……3,753………..33 Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,062……1,073……..…8 Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..7,586……8,123……….50 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,468……1,569……….14 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….57,685….59,439……1,320 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….66,535.…68,490……1,243 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……307,041…318,539……5,212
This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 167 new fatalities reported out of 11,498 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%. This high mortality is probably as a result of the number of cases dropping, while the mortality numbers are tied to the number of cases several weeks earlier. The population known to have been infected is 5.94% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions this week.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,364 cases (5,223 last week) and 63 deaths (up 15 these last three weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,589 cases (5,434 last week) and 74 deaths (up 20 these last three weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,752 cases (2,681 last week) and 39 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,966 cases (3,789 last week) and 36 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,279 cases (6,003 last week) cases and 79 deaths (19 deaths these last two weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,414 cases (6,188 last week) and 65 deaths (up 17 these last three weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,740 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,701 cases (1,629 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
The original goal was to inoculate 20 million people by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months.
According to one of the trackers I am watching (Bloomberg), as of 1 Feb. we have administered almost 33 million doses. The last couple of days we have been administering 1.3 or more million doses a day. This is better than the original needed goal of a million a day. Of course, most of these cases are the first of two doses, although I gather there are around six million people who have now received both doses. It does look like this is now on track.
Well, not really week 2 of protests in Russia as there has been protests going on in Kharborovsk since July 2020. There are also still scattered protests in Belarus and there have been pro-Belarus (anti-Lukashenko) protests in St. Petersburg. Protests are actually becoming quite common in the FSU (Former Soviet Union).
Anyhow, certainly tens of thousands of protestors showed up across the nation over the weekend. The Russian government sealed off downtown Moscow, so as to avoid the optics of tens of thousands of protestors in and around Pushkin Square. Over 5,000 protesters were detained/arrested in rather heavy handed police tactics.
Meanwhile, the Aleksei Navalny video has 107 million views.
Picture above is from St. Petersburg, courtesy of Reuters/Anton Vaganov.
Anyhow, it is hard to see how this resolves. It is large and virulent and in the middle of winter. What reforms and changes to does Putin offer to calm down the protests? An anti-corruption campaign when he is clearly at the center of it? Sell the palace that he supposedly does not own? Release Navalny? Institute democratic reforms? I suspect he has no choice but to continue arresting protestors each weekend until they tire. This could go on for a while. I also fully expect the protests in Belarus to continue. I am guessing that more people will start coming out as the weather gets better. Also, the protests have occurred in over 70 cities in Russia, so it is kind of widespread.
Not sure this is the end of Putin’s regime….but I do think he and his large collection of cronies will be pretty uncomfortable for a while. They got too corrupt for their own good.
The above photo was the one I used for that post a year ago. A few quotes from that post:
“This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonder how bad it is going to be before it is contained.”
and:
“There could also be a significant economic cost”
and:
“Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague” since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920.”
and:
“The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.”
I ended up doing a lot of other posts about the Coronavirus over this last year. In part, as a historian I am kind of aware of the significance impact various plagues have had over time. While we have not had a lot of experiences with such problems in the last hundred years, there is no lack of exposure to them in history. I could argue that if people had really properly studied their history and applied lessons from it, less people would have died. On the other hand, I am not sure I want to make that argument in a briefing to DOD on the value of historical analysis.
As of 2017, U.S. GDP was $19.391 trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy was $12.238 trillion. This was 63% of the U.S. economy.
Now?
Using the World Bank figures for 2019 it is 21.428 trillion for the United States. The Chinese economy is $14.343 trillion. This is 67% of the U.S. economy and these figures pre-date the Covid crisis.
IMF has estimated 2020 figures. I have no idea how relevant or meaningful they area. For the US. it is $%20.807 trillion while for China it is 14.861 trillion. This is 71% of the U.S. economy. Don’t know how much of the Coronavirus issues affected these 2020 IMF figures. China started dealing with Coronavirus in January 2020 while it only became an issue in the United States in March of 2020. China has since brought it under control and are seeing about 200 cases a day. The United States has failed to bring it under control and are looking at something like 180,000 new cases each day. As such, I would expect that China GDP is growing faster than the United States and this will probably also be the case for 2021.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday. It remains high in the UK (20K yesterday) although much better. Yesterday they reported for France (22K), Spain (36K), Germany (9K) and Russia (18K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 147K new cases yesterday. This is improvement. This is in contrast to places like China (139 cases), Japan (3,861), South Korea (554), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (14), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 4:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….34,403……35,865…..895 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,860……11,414…..197 Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,810…….9,236…..102 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……54,918……58,092…..762 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……243……….285………6 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……373………..413…….10 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…17,236……19,508…..173
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….32,237……34,314…..295 Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,458.,…….3,608…….33 Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,041…..….1,062………8 Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..6,887……..7,586……45 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,310……..1,468…….14 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……55,203……57,685…1,292 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……63,994……66,535…1,213 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…290,973…..307,041…5,045
This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 178 new fatalities reported out of 16,058 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.11%. The population known to have been infected is 5.72% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,223 cases (5,080 last week) and 59 deaths (up 11 these last two weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,434 cases (5,097 last week) and 69 deaths (up 15 these last two weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,681 cases (2,586 last week) and 38 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,789 cases (3,575 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,003 cases (5,514 last week) cases and 68 deaths (8 deaths this week).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,188 cases (5,894 last week) and 61 deaths (up 13 these last two weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,707 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,526. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,629 cases (1,523 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
The original plan on 12 July was for the Fifth Guards Tank Army to launch it attacks from in front of Prokhorovka at 1000 AM (Moscow time). At the last minute, the Voronezh Front command moved the time up of the attack to 0830. Both the Fifth Guards Tank Army and the Fifth Guards Army stated that they attacked at 0830. The Fifth Guards Army was to the northwest of the Fifth Guards Tank Army and was engaged with Totenkopf SS Division in addition to other German units. The Fifth Guards Tank Army was primarily engaged with the Adolf Hitler SS Division (LSSAH), although it was partly engaged with its neighbor on the left, Totenkopf, and its neighbor on the right, the Das Reich SS Division.
Berlin time is one hour ahead of Moscow time, so a 0830 attack (Moscow time) occurred at 0730 (Berlin time). Added to that, the times listed are the times the reports were sent or filed, not when they occurred. In some cases, they report the time the event occurred. So for example, at 0740 Totenkopf reports an event at 0630 and another event at 0705. The same occurs at 0822 (event was at 0745), at 0825 (event was at 0740), at 0955 (event was at 0930), and so on.
So at 0500 (Berlin time) they report hearing “tank noises.”
At 0600 they received a regimental strength attack along the line of Prochorowka-Petrowka. See map below.
I have no idea what generated this report. This attack is at least a hour-and half before the Soviets claim they attacked. If could be a small recon in force not otherwise reported, a false report and a confused time.
At 0630 Totenkopf is being infiltrated and fired on (at 0630 or 0740?) and under a very heavy infantry attack at 0705. Again the 0630 and 0705 Berlin times do not match with the Fifth Guards Army 0830 Moscow time start time.
At 0822 Totenkopf, which can see most of the XVIII Tank Corps attack positions, reports “two enemy regiments and about 40 tanks from the northeast, observed entering Michailowka and hills to the southeast at 0745.” This is clearly the XVIII Tank Corps attack. The report almost perfectly matches with a 0830 Moscow time. Assuming it takes a few minutes from when the orders are given to everything gets moving, spotting this movement at 0745 Berlin time pretty much confirms that the XVIII Tank Corps attack started at 0830 Moscow time. Rotmistrov was at his command post at height 252.4 (it is on the map on the road between Prokhorovka and Voroshilov Sovkhoz). Marshal Vasilevkii, the Stavka representative, was there with him. The XXIX Tank Corps was supposed to start its attack at the same time. From height 252.4, Rotmistrov could see most of the XXIX Tank Corps and parts of the XVIII Tank Corps. So, I am guessing that the XXIX Tank Corps attack also started at 0830.
Just for reference, the Germans held height 252.2 and Oktyabrskii Sovkhoz opposite the XXIX Tank Corps.
Now, I gather one could put together an argument of a later attack by the XXIX Tank Corps from the 1000 hours report from LSSAH that says “Enemy attacks on all fronts (At 0915 hours, 40 tanks from Jamki against Swch. Stalinsk, 35 tanks from Prochorowka along the road to the southwest, 40 tanks from Petrowka against Swch. Iktjabrskiy, and the heaviest artillery support. But… I don’t think this report really does indicate that the XXIX Tank Corps attack started at 1000 Moscow time.
Anyhow, I still don’t see a strong reason to overrule multiple reports by both the Fifth Guards Tank Army and the Fifth Guards Army that they initiated the attack at 0830 Moscow time. It does seem that these German records report spotting the XVIII Tank Corps attack at 0745 Berlin time, which would be 15 minutes after the Soviets said they attacked.
Seems like I never quite get away from the Battle of Kursk and move onto other work. As a result of piece I was working on, I ended up checking back in my files. This material below is quoted (translated) from a narrative of events kept by the SS Panzer Corps (file T313, R368). For 12 July 1943 they report:
0500 hours: Morning reports
LSSAH: Contact with Totenkopf established. Numerous tank noises along our front. Heavy enemy air activity.
Das Reich: Night passed quietly. Regiment Deutschland is ready to follow the right wing of LSSAH’s attack.
Totenkopf: Strong artillery and small arms harassing fire, heavy enemy air activity.
0600 hours: Enemy attack in regimental strength along the line Prochorowka-Petrowka drive off on LSSAH’s front.
0740 hours from Totenkopf:
0630 hours slow infiltration of the flank positions at the barracks (west of Klljutschki). Very heavy artillery and salvo-gun fire. Advance to the northeast still not specified.
0740 hours from Totenkopf:
0705, very heavy infantry [attack?] 3 km east of Petrowka.
0822 hours from Totenkopf:
Two enemy regiments and about 40 tanks from the northeast, observed entering Michailowka and hills to the southeast at 0745.
0825 hours from Totenkopf:
0740 hours, an enemy battalion attacking into the Psel area from the north.
0900 hours from Totenkopf:
Last elements crossed over into the bridgehead at 0900. Using the panzer battalion that crossed over yesterday, began advancing against the barracks at 0400 hours. Barracks captured by 0715.
0910 hours from VIII Air corps:
Two Stuka groups have been dispatched against the enemy group moving southwest from Petrowka.
0955 hours from Totenkopf:
Enemy attacking west from Michailowka with tank support.
At 0930 hours our armored group jumped off from Hill 226.6 to the northeast.
1000 hours from LSSAH:
Enemy attacks on all fronts (At 0915 hours, 40 tanks from Jamki against Swch. Stalinsk, 35 tanks from Prochorowka along the road to the southwest, 40 tanks from Petrowka against Swch. Oktjabrskij, and the heaviest artillery support).
1110 hours from Totenkopf:
Enemy attack in regimental strength out of Wassiljewka to the southwest. Additional attacks south of Wesselyj and Ilinskij.
Aerial reconnaissance reports the advance of additional enemy forces, predominantly infantry, in the area south of Oboojan.
1115 hours from Totenkopf:
We will attempt to cross the Psel at Michailowka and move in behind the enemy that is south of the river.
1130 hours from LSSAH:
Localized enemy breakthrough at Hill 252.2
1145 hours from Das Reich:
Enemy attack against Kalinin and west of Storoshewoje. After repelling this attack, we plan to counterattack to seize Storoshewoje.
1315 hours from LSSAH:
[Enemy] breakthrough taken care of, all infantry attacks driven off.
Just for reference: The LSSAH is the Adolf Hitler SS Panzer Grenadier Division. It was located to the southwest of Prokhorovka. The Das Reich is the Das Reich SS Panzer Grenadier Division which was located to the south (right flank) of LSSAH. Totenkopf is the Totenkopf SS Panzer Grenadier Division which was located to the north (left flank) of LSSAH and was across the Psel River. The Russian names above are as transliterated into German (vice English).
German records were reported in “Berlin time” while Soviet records were reported in “Moscow time.” It is my understanding that at this time of the year in July 1943, Berlin time was one hour behind Moscow time.
Now, I ended up looking this back up because there is an author (Toeppel) who claims that the Soviet attack that their records state occurred at 0830 (Moscow time) actually occurred at 1000. I have in the past been dismissive of this claim, but wanted to make sure I properly examined it. I will address this in more detail in a post tomorrow morning.
People attend a rally in support of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Moscow, Russia January 23, 2021. REUTERS/Yuri Belyat
Well, large protests in Belarus have disappeared but they are still doing a number of smaller protests. This weekend the Belarus police detained/arrested around 100 protestors. Meanwhile protests have exploded in Russia. On Saturday, they started in the far east in the Siberian cities of Vladivostok and Kharbarovsk and erupted across dozens of cities across Russia (90 cities according to one count). They culminated in large protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Russian government claimed 4,000 protestors in Moscow, but it looked like a lot more than that in the videos I have seen One estimate was 15,000 gathered in and around Pushkin Square in the center of Moscow (picture of protestors in Pushkin Square is shown above). The police have detained/arrested over 3,300 according to one independent Russian source (OVD-Info).
We have seen continued protests in Kharborovsk that have been going on since July 2020, but this is a nation-wide explosion. Not sure how to evaluate it or measure its impact. We have seen several governments overthrown in Eastern Europe: Euromaiden (Ukraine: 2013-2014), the Orange Revolution (Ukraine: 2004-2005) and the Rose Revolution (Georgia: 2003). Is this serious enough to threaten Putin’s hold on power? I have no way of evaluating that at the moment. I did think that Lukashenko, President of Belarus, was close to being removed, and that may well be the case yet, especially if the protests in Belarus get rejuvenated.
It is two hours, in Russian with English subtitles and I heard it is worth watching, is well researched and makes a fairly convincing case. It has 84.686.4 93.3 million views so far.
