Mystics & Statistics

A blog on quantitative historical analysis hosted by The Dupuy Institute

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 60

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 60 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 1,076 new cases. Last week it was 2,015 new cases (revised calculation). Eighteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe seems to be slowly bring the spread of the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 3K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK continues to contain the virus with 2K new cases reported yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 109,041 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,010 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 125,622 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 24,873 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (591,035 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. Yesterday they reported for France only 3K new cases. This is unusually low as they were reporting 10K cases two days earlier. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 5K, for Germany it is 3K and Russia remains permanently wedded to 8K new cases a week, as it has for weeks (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.7 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 23K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (no report, but very low), Japan (3,918), South Korea (699), Taiwan (539, which is their highest daily total), Vietnam (527, which is also their highest daily total), Singapore (30), Australia (17) and New Zealand (1 on 5/24/21).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,634……48,822….1,131
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,279……15,284…….256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,799……11,831…….137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,717…..76,877….1,092
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….434………433……….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….557………560………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,817…..27,889…….278
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,197…..45,361……..500
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,302…….4,307………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,218…….1,217………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,327……11,393………79
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,122…….2,133………24
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,686…..70,743….1,537
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……84,561…..84,876….1,500
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….400,650…401,726….6,620

The Mortality Rate is 1.65%. There were 35 fatalities in the last week compared to 1,076 new cases or a weekly mortality rate of 3.25%. This is almost certainly caused by the lag in mortality compared to the declining number of cases. The population known to have been infected is 7.49% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

The Virginia University Towns:

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. I gather that they have all emptied out now and gone home for the summer. Therefore, let us take a look at the stats for the area for a second.

UVA seemed to have the strictest and best covid control efforts. It shows:

Charlottesville (pop. 47K) with 4,011 cases and 57 deaths 

Albemarle County (pop. 109K) with 5,787 cases and 83 deaths.

This comes out to 85 and 53 cases per thousand people and 1.21 and 0.76 deaths per thousand people.

To compare them to other areas:

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) with 6,495 cases and 94 deaths

Rockingham County (pop. 81K) with 6,800 cases and 108 deaths.

This comes out to 120 and 84 cases per thousand people and 1.74 and 1.33 deaths per thousand people.

This is an indirect comparison of James Madison University policy and UVA policy, which was radically different, especially in the fall. One can see the difference in the figures of for the overall population.

To the south is Liberty U and Virginia Tech. Lynchburg (home of Liberty U.) did not fare well.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K) with 7,881 cases and 154 deaths.
For Lynchburg this comes out to 96 cases per thousand people and 1.88 deaths per thousand people. They have the highest death rate, leading me to suspect that the testing was less.

 

Montgomery County (pop. 99K) with 9,399 cases and 97 deaths.

For Montgomery Country this comes out to 95 cases per thousand people and 0.97 deaths per thousand people.


This was somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you had four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They did show different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 654 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 378 cases. Seventeen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,136 cases (2,123 last week) and 10 deaths.

JSTOR, Trevor Dupuy, Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule

In moments of quiet I sometimes search the internet to see if people are referencing our work. Sometimes I run across articles and discussions I have forgotten about. This was one of them: Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule

We have blogged about this subject a few times before (and even referenced the JSTOR article):

The Source of the U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 49 U.S. Civil War battles | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 243 Battles 1600-1900 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Great 3-1 Rule Debate | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The 3-to-1 Rule in Recent History Books | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Questioning The Validity Of The 3-1 Rule Of Combat | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Comparing the RAND Version of the 3:1 Rule to Real-World Data | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

TDI Friday Read: The Validity Of The 3-1 Rule Of Combat | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The 3-to-1 Rule in Histories | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Trevor Dupuy and the 3-1 Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 59

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 59 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased slightly to 2,015 new cases. Last week it was lower than it was forty-six weeks ago. There were 1,981 new cases last week and 3,676 new cases the week before. Seventeen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 4K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK continues to keep the virus under control with 2K new cases reported for 17 May. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 108,208 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,956 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 124,646 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 17K new cases, so they do appear to be getting this back under control. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 4K, for Germany it is 8K and Russia remains at 8K as it has for weeks (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 28K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (no report, but very low), Japan (5,204), South Korea (653), Taiwan (243, which is one of their highest daily totals), Vietnam (153, which is one of their highest daily totals), Singapore (38), Australia (9) and New Zealand (5).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 1:20 PM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,282….48,634…..1,124
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,239….15,279……..256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,759….11,799……..135
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,460….76,717…..1,081
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430……..434…………9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………556…..…557………..19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,686….27,817…..…277
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,064….45,197……..496
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,296……4,302……….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217……1,218….……11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,239…..11,327….…..79
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,122…….2,122….…..23
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,298.…70,686…..1,537
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……83,987.…84,561…..1,491
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….398,635…400,650…..6,585


This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate is 1.64%. Three weeks ago there were 6,457 fatalities reported, now it is up to 6,585 total fatalities or 128 fatalities in the last three weeks. The number of new cases in the last three weeks is 400,650 – 392,978 = 7,672. This is a mortality rate of 1.67%. The population known to have been infected is 7.47% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) is around 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. I gather that they have all emptied out now and gone home for the summer. Therefore, this will be the last time I report on this.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,489 cases (6,477 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,770 cases (6,739 last week) and 107 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 4,011 cases (4,010 last week) and 57 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,784 cases (5,760 last week) and 83 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA, https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker, after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (5/17) there were no new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,841 cases (7,744 last week) cases and 150 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,390 cases (9,363 last week) and 96 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 378 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 600 cases. Sixteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,123 cases (2,114 last week) and 10 deaths.

Will China take the risk and actually invade Taiwan?

One of our commenters asked the question “So what if the PRC President for Life takes a gamble?”

Invading Taiwan is a high risk operation as discussed in our previous posts:

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – wherefore and why? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The potential cost of such an operation is a loss of 60-80% of trade, a loss of 60% of their oil and a temporary decline in their economy of 30-40% (just a guess). It is unknown how long this economic decline would be, but it could last for several years. The resulting economic decline could also result in civil unrest, protests and even the overthrow of the government. The invasion could also fail. We will discuss some of these examples of failed gambles in a later post.

Still, one cannot rule out the leadership of a nation doing something risky, or pushing the limits or simply making a mistake. There is more than enough historical examples of mind-boggling idiocy by senior leadership of nations.

Now, there is not a lot history of military adventurism on the part of China. Their armed forces have operated in country and only on the edge of their borders for most of their history. The current head of the Peoples Republic of China, XI Jinping, has been in charge since 15 November 2012. He came up through the communist party and the communist system, although his parents were suppressed during the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). He is a “princeling” or a “Party’s Crown Princes” meaning a descendent of prominent and influential senior communist officials who, not surprisingly, often also rise of prominent positions in the Chinese hierarchy. He spent much of his career as a politician. Various descriptions of him tend to reinforce his image as pragmatic, serious and cautious. He is also very much the dictator.

He does report to a politburo. So while the head of any communist party system has significant power, these politburos are not without influence. They have been known to occasionally replace heads of the party that have had repeated problems. For the Soviet Union this includes Khrushchev in 1964 and for China, the list is longer: Chen Duxiu in 1927, Xiang Zhongfa in 1931, Qin Bangxian (or Bo Gu) in 1935, Zhang Wentian in 1943, Hua Guofeng in 1981, Hu Yaobang in 1987, and Zhao Ziyang in 1989, Jiang Zemin in 2002, and Hu Jintao in 2012. So, it is not like Xi Jinping can wake up one morning and decide to invade Taiwan. This almost certainly has to be discussed with and supported by the Politburo. So even if Xi Jinping was a risk taker, which he does not appear to be, then is debatable if the majority of the Politburo will be risk takers. Usually Politburo’s tend to be conservative. For example, the “Khrushchev thaw” from mid-1950s to the mid-1960s was reeled in by Brezhnev and the politburo, as were the economic reforms of Alexei Kosygin that were initiated in 1965. By the same token, the coup that was conducted in the Soviet Union in August 1991 was for the sake of getting Gorbachev to restrict or restrain the degree and extent of reforms. In the case of China they have their own complex history wrapped up around the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. I can’t think of any examples of a politburo forcing the leadership to be more adventurous and less conservative. They traditionally serve as a brake to adventurism.

So, Xi Jinping is 67 years old. He could easily be there for another 20 years. He is not a risk taker and politburo’s tend to not be risk takers. So, my suspicion is that China would not take the risk of invading Taiwan any time in the near future, and probably not at any time when Xi Jinping in charge. I suspect that any scenario that endangers Taiwan will only come about once Xi Jinping has retired or expired.

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 58

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit


This is weekly update number 58 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to only 1,981 new cases. This lower than it was forty-five weeks ago. There were 3,676 new cases last week. Sixteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 7K new cases for yesterday. The UK has brought it under control with 2K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 107,096 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,890 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 123,282 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 20K new cases, so they do appear to be getting this back under control. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 5K, for Germany it is 20K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures and will blog about this soon). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 34K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (17), Japan (6,360 and rising), South Korea (635), Taiwan (11), Vietnam (82), Singapore (25), Australia (8) and New Zealand (2 on 9 May).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 9:20 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,041…….48,282…1,104
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,156……15,239……252
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,700……11,759…….133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,144……76,460….1,070
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….425………..430…….…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….552………..556………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,483…….27,686……274
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….44,806…….45,064……479
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,289………4,296…….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,215………1,217……..12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,155……..11,239……..74
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,109………2,122……..22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,075……70,298….1,521
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……83,504……83,987….1,442
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….396,654.…398,635…..6,457


This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area two weeks ago was 1.64%. Due to technical difficulties I was unable to get the death counts for any fo these locales the last two weeks except for DC (which is up to 1,113). Therefore deaths from two weeks ago are still reported. Two weeks ago there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.43% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. It is clear that now that number vaccinated and the number previously infected is 70-80% of the population of the area and as a result we are seeing a noticeable and sudden decline in cases.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. They are now emptying out and the semester is ending. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers. Again, I have not been able to get updated death figures for the last two weeks.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,477 cases (6,465 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,739 cases (6,712 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 4,010 cases (4,013 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,760 cases (5,739 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA, https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker, after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (5/10) there were only 2 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also last week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. So far there has been no increase in the number of cases as a result.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,744 cases (7,650 last week) cases and 146 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,363 cases (9,320 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 600 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 779 cases. Fifteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,114 cases (2,087 last week) and 10 deaths.

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight?

So, the question is, what are we really looking at for an invasion of Taiwan?

A few caveats: 1) I am no China expert, 2) I have never been involved in gaming or analyzing the defense of Taiwan, and 3) I have no real “insider” knowledge of the subject at hand.

The armed forces of Taiwan consist of (according to Wikipedia) 163,000 active personnel and 1,657,000 reserve personnel. Their defense budget is $13.1 billion in 2020 and that makes up 2.3% of their GDP. That last figure is very interesting, for the United States spends 3.4% of our GDP on defense (2019). So, if there is a imminent threat of invasion (like in the next six years). then why are they not spending more? Does Taiwan discount this threat or are some people outside of Taiwan overrating the possibility of it occurring? Do some people sitting in the United States understand the threat and possibility of it occurring better than the people sitting in Taiwan?

Now, Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of China at the narrowest part. There are also a few smaller islands controlled by Taiwan in between them.  So, what we are looking at is:

  1. Operations to seize some of these outlying lslands like Kinmen (Quemoy), Wucious and Matsu. Kinmen (Quemoy) is only 1.5 miles off the coast of Red China. 
  2. Some fifth column or hybrid warfare arrangement to seize the main island. Unless there is some large armed fifth column currently located in Taiwan that is strong enough to seize port facilities, etc., I don’t think this is a practical possibility.
  3. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan across the 80+ miles of the Taiwan Strait.

Needless to say, China is probably not interest is taking the economic hit for taking a couple of small islands and I don’t think any form of warfare less than an actual amphibious invasion will actually take the main island… so, I think the scenario we are looking at is invariably a “hot war” scenario of a conventional amphibious invasion.

So, how big would such an invasion force have to be?

Well, the Taiwanese Army is around 130,000. It is estimated that 80% is located on Taiwan, while the rest are stationed on the various smaller island. The forces consist of 4 armor brigades, 5 mechanized infantry brigades, 3 air cavalry brigades, 9 active infantry Brigades, and 24 reserve brigades (to be activated in time of war), and lots of other odds and ends and support troops. This is a modern, well-developed armed force. It does not have any combat experience, but neither does the Red Chinese Army (unless you count getting your ass handed to you by the Vietnamese Army in 1979). 

Now, the Taiwanese armor and offensive assets are significant. I gather their plan includes counterattacking any establish beachheads with their armor forces. This forces included 460 M60A3s, 450 CM-11s, 100 CM-12s, 50 M48A, and even around a hundred M41s. Some of these are with reserve forces. They also have 414 CM-32 IFVS, 300 V-150s and a spare thousand M-113s. This is a pretty significant force. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Republic_of_China_Army

Their supporting helicopters included 29 AH-64 Apaches, and 62 AH-1 Supercobras. So, mixed in with 9 armored and mechanized brigades and 3 air cavalry brigades, there is some real offensive punch here.

So, how big of a force would Red China have to send across? Well, I think it would have to be a well-sported force of tens of thousands to initially establish a beachhead. On D-day (6 June 1944) the Americans, British and Canadians landed 156,115 men. This is the largest invasion in history. So, we are looking at something here of at least 20,000 to 40,000 on the first day, and having to be reinforced heavily over the next few days. It will have to be a force capable of defeating the fully mobilized 1.8 million man Taiwanese Army. This is a major undertaking. 

Now… invading is one thing, but invasion forces have to be sustained. They will have to build up an army of 100,000 or more across the straits. Each person needs at least 10 to 20 pounds of food, water and fuel a day. If it is a mechanized force, it will be more. So, probably a thousand or more tons of supply that have to be transported across the strait every single day. The ships carrying these are targets. This can be intercepted by air or sea forces.

So, there is the Taiwanese air force. Their main fighter force consists of 113 F-16s, 46 Mirage 2000, 103 AIDC F-CK-1 (their own multirole fighter made in Taiwan). So, 262 fighters, plus trainers (another 62 fighters) and support aircraft.

This air force I assume will be supported by the U.S. Navy and the U. S. Air Force. That is some 40 to 60 fighters per carrier committed (I am guessing at least three) and however many fighters we choose to fly over there (we have around 1,700 fighters). Of course the Chinese have a load of fighters also, around 1,300 but lot of them are J-7, which are Chinese variants of very obsolete Mig-21s. Their more modern fighters include around 700 planes, most of them being J-10s and J-11/16. They are certainly not superior to the planes used by Taiwan or the United States. So we are looking at an air battle of maybe on the Taiwanese side of 262 + 62 + 180 (carriers) + 200 (USAF) = 704 vs 700 Chinese fighters. So this will certainly be a contested air fight and the U.S//Taiwanese aircraft will probably have the advantage. I recall only one amphibious invasion that occurred during an extended contested air fight (Falklands). I can’t recall any successful amphibious invasions that occurred where the defender had air superiority. Will the Chinese be able to establish air superiority? Will Taiwan and the U.S. be able to establish air superiority?

Needless to say, the air situation is not particularly positive for mainland China and argues against them attempting such an invasion…and that is before looking at the naval assets.

Naval assets are pretty one-sided. The Taiwanese fleet consists of 26 frigates and destroyer and 4 subs. I assume it would be supported by the U.S. Navy, which is in whole different league in size and seriousness. I don’t even need to do a “net assessment” comparison here on this one, the data is below, and it is pretty lopsided.

See: The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

And: Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Navy is here: U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This does not address any support provided by the U.S. allies in the region, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. They may well provide additional air and naval assets.

Finally, if this did grow into a “hot war” scenario then the United States would certainly maintain control of the seas away from the Chinese coast. So in addition to being able to intercept almost all seaborne trade and oil going to and from China, they could easily take control of Chinese facilities and bases at the Spratley islands. Nothing China could do about that. So, any “hot war” scenario would include a loss of 60-80% of their trade, a loss of 60% of their oil, the loss of the Spratly Islands (perhaps handed back to the Philippines and Vietnam) and the other resulting long term economic impact. This is not a cheap or convenient effort. It is not the same as Russia taking Crimea.

Now, there are some relevant links I can point you too. They are below. Some of these I question. Mainland China can certainly get a significant force across the straits, but may not be able to maintain air superiority and may not be able to maintain control of the Taiwan Straights. Nothing like sending a 100,000 people across the straights and not being able to feed them. I do find the idea that mainland China will invade Taiwan in the next 6 years to be somewhat loopy.

For mainland China to seriously consider invading Taiwan, it is going to take another decade of two of serious development of their air force and particular their fighter arm. They only have about 50 modern “stealth fighters.” It will also need to have a naval force at least capable of securing the Taiwan Straights. Can’t envision they will have a naval force in the next 20 years large enough to protect the Spratley Islands from the U.S. or secure their overseas trade and oil.

 

——-Other Articles and blog posts———–

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html

http://theglitteringeye.com/wargaming-a-china-u-s-war/

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/09/01/what-war-with-china-could-look-like/

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/can-america-successfully-repel-chinese-invasion-taiwan-166350

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/09/if-china-invades-taiwan-taipei-plans-to-throw-a-thousand-tanks-at-the-beachhead/?sh=be8a96a6f93b

https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-games-over-china-threat-warn-of-likely-defeat-report/

https://topics.amcham.com.tw/2021/04/taiwan-defense-asymmetric-indigenous-capabilities/

https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1217.html

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 57

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 57 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 3,676 new cases. There were 4,620 new cases last week. Fifteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 9K new cases for yesterday. The UK has brought it under control with 2K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 105,792 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,830 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 122,005 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 24K new cases. They are only very slowly getting control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 16K for 5/03, for Germany it is 24K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 41K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (19 cases on 5/03), Japan (4,197), South Korea (676), Taiwan (8), Vietnam (10), Singapore (17), Australia (15) and New Zealand (6).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-four weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 2:20 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….47,533……48,041…….1,104
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….15,020……15,156…….…252
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,595……11,700……….133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……75,478……76,144…….1,070
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………423…………425…………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………544…………552……….19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……27,159…….27,483……..274

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….44,414……44,806………479
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,297……..4,289………..47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,195……..1,215……….12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,979…….11,155……….74
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….2,054………2,109……….22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……69,624……70,075……1,521
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……82,663……83,504……1,442
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..392,978…396,654……..6,457

 

This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area last week was 1.64%. Due to technical difficulties I was unable to get the death counts for any locale this week except for DC (which is up to 1,019). Therefore last weeks deaths are still reported. Last week there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.39% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,465 cases (6,434 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,712 cases (6,636 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 4,013 cases (3,993 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,739 cases (5,673 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/26) there were only 2 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also last week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. So far there has been no increase in the number of cases as a result.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,650 cases (7,549 last week) cases and 146 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,320 cases (9,226 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.  

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 779 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,091 cases. Fourteen weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,087 cases (2,074 last week) and 10 deaths.

So should Ukraine join NATO?

I gather that we are on the path for Ukraine to NATO at some point in the future. It is clearly something that the current government of Ukraine wants, although Russia is hostile to the idea and the west is wary. Ukraine was in the Partnership for Peace program and working towards joining NATO until Viktor Yanokovich was elected President of Ukraine in 2010. He shut that effort down but was thrown out of power in 2014. The efforts of Ukraine to join NATO has now been re-activated.

Now, it is clear that Ukraine is back on the path to joining NATO and probably will at some point. Needless to say, Russia is not very happy about this. I gather the real question is whether this will be something that will be done sometime in the next 10-20 years or whether it is something that needs to be accelerated to maybe the next three years.

Russia’s saber rattling last week does sort of make the argument for three years vice 20 years. On the other hand, NATO has become an alliance of 30 western democracies, although a couple are what I call “troubled democracies” (Turkey and Hungary). Gone are the days when dictatorships like Portugal were part of NATO. So, it is now sort of expected that countries that join will have democratic structures and low levels of corruption. Ukraine posses several problems in that it is still a fledgling democracy, there is a lot of corruption, there are two “people’s republics” in an armed warlike state, and part of Ukraine (Crimea) has been occupied by Russia.

If a country joins NATO that is fighting a separatist movement, does NATO have an obligation to help? England was fighting in Northern Ireland for three decades and it was never a NATO problem. On the other hand, if a country joins NATO that has territory occupied by Russia, what is NATO’s responsibility for that? NATO is a defensive alliance. Does Ukraine joining NATO give it a free hand to try to change the status of Donetsk, Lugansk or Crimea? What if Russia responds? What are the requirements of the alliance then? Maybe entry into NATO needs to be delayed until these issues are resolved. As we have seen through, these can sometimes take a while (the Transnistia republic in Moldovia has been independent for 30 years, Taiwan has been independent for over 70 years).

So, should Ukraine join NATO
1. In the near team (3-5 years)?
2. In the long team (10-20 years)?
3. Not until all major outstanding international issues are resolved (which I gather means not in our lifetime)?
4. Never?

 

A few links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

So the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis is Over for now?

Well, it looks like Russia has pulled back some of its troops and equipment for the moment. So a lot of noise, but no action.

One does wonder why this occurred. Possibilities include:

1. They wanted to make a little noise to make some point to Ukraine. Possibly anger over President Zelensky banning three pro-Russian media channels and imposing sanctions against individuals and companies.

2. They wanted to make a little noise to tell the Biden administration that they needed to respect them (especially after Biden’s comments about Putin and the additional sanctions imposed).

3. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Ukraine/Crimea.

4. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Kaliningrad, their isolated city between Lithuania and Poland.

5. This may have been a “routine” training exercise.

6. They wanted to distract from the internal issues, especially Navalny and their shutting down of protests.

7. They just wanted to make a little noise so people still “respect” them.

8. Some or all of the above.

Anyhow, looks like things will be “peaceful” for another year. That said, there is still two armed and active “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk, and there is still sniping and shelling and other activities. Ukraine is still losing a couple of soldiers of month from all this. They are still armed and active war zones.

 

Some stories:

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-162144377.html

https://www.unian.info/politics/sanctions-zelensky-enacts-nsdc-decision-against-95-companies-13-individuals-11396413.html

https://www.unian.info/politics/sanctions-zelensky-enacts-decree-on-27-ex-officials-incl-yanukovych-azarov-11383270.html

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 56

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 56 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased ever so slightly to 4,620 new cases. There were 4,753 new cases last week. Fourteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 10K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 103,764 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,734 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 119,912 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 30K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 8K, for Germany it is 26K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 51K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (20 cases), Japan (4,966), South Korea (775), Taiwan (6), Vietnam (5), Singapore (12), Australia (33) and New Zealand (8 on 4/26).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-three weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,869……47,533……1,104
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,861……15,020…….…252
Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,491..….11,595………..133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..74,708..….75,478……..1,070
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………415……….423……………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………539……….544………….19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,795…..27,159………..274

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….43,957….44,414…..……479
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,278……4,297…………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,184……1,195…….…..12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,789…..10,979…….….74
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….2,004…….2,054……..…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,945..…69,624……1,521
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……81,523…..82,663……1,442
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..388,358…392,978……6,457

 

This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.32% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,434 cases (6,377 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,636 cases (6,572 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,993 cases (3,944 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,673 cases (5,555 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/26) there were only 4 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also this week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. We shall see if the number of cases increase as a result.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,549 cases (7,465 last week) cases and 146 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,226 cases (9,140 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.  

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,091 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,2368 cases. Thirteen weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,074 cases (2,054 last week) and 10 deaths.