Mystics & Statistics

A blog on quantitative historical analysis hosted by The Dupuy Institute

H. R. McMaster

Lt. General H. R. McMaster is now the National Security Advisor: H._R._McMaster

He has been a particularly successful combat commander, from leading the a troop of an armored cavalry regiment in the Battle of 73 Easting, to commanding the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Iraq, to later service in Afghanistan; he has served very successfully in three of our wars. Yet he was passed over twice for promotion to Brigadier General. His career has mostly been related to combat, combat arms and further development of our combat capabilities.

Probably one of the more interesting aspects of his career is that while he was a major he published a book in 1997 called Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies that Led to Vietnam. It was originally his PhD thesis for his degree in history. Sad to say, I have not read it (yet).

He is still on active duty, which is not the first time this has happened (Brent Scowcroft and Colin Powell).

 

Multi-Domain Battle And The Maneuver Warfare Debate

The recent commitment by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps to developing the concept of multi-domain battle led me to wonder: is this going to re-ignite the currently-dormant-but-unresolved debate over maneuver vs. attrition in American land warfare thinking? Will long-range precision fires and cross-domain targeting change the relationship between fire and maneuver in modern combat tactics? With an emphasis on fires of the kinetic and non-kinetic variety as the remedy to the challenge of anti-access/area denial capabilities and strategies, are multi-domain warfare theorists swinging the pendulum to the side of attrition?

What Is The Role of Maneuver In Multi-Domain Battle?

Consider this description of the Army’s conception of multi-domain battle offered by General David G. Perkins, Commander, United States Army Training and Doctrine Command:

[F]uture multifunctional Army fires units will provide the joint task force with a single unit combining surface-to-surface (land and maritime), surface-to-air, electromagnetic, and cyberspace cross-domain fires. These fires formations integrate with emerging Navy, Air Force, Marine and special operations forces capabilities to provide the commander multiple resilient options for striking the enemy and covering joint force maneuver.

At the same time, ground forces with improved maneuver and close combat capabilities allow the joint force to overwhelm or infiltrate dispersed enemy formations concealed from joint targeting and fires. A joint force containing effective ground forces requires the enemy to expose their dispersed forces to defeat in ground combat, face destruction from joint fires if they concentrate, or the loss of key terrain if they displace.

Future Army and Marine tactical ground maneuver units will combine sufficient cross-domain fires capability to enable decentralized ground maneuver and the creation of durable domain windows for the joint force with the mobility, lethality and protection to close with and destroy enemy ground forces in close combat. With combined arms pushed to the lowest practical level, these units will be flexible and resilient with the ability to operate in degraded conditions and with sufficient endurance to sustain losses and continue operations for extended periods and across wide areas.

The Army clearly sees maneuver to be an integral part of multi-domain battle, with an emphasis on closing with enemy forces to engage in close combat. However, it seems to me that the same technological changes that are prompting consideration of the new concept raise some questions:

  • What does close combat mean when ground maneuver elements can be brought under devastating surprise long-range precision fire barrages enabled by drone reconnaissance and cyber and information operations long before they close with enemy combat forces?
  • If even infantry squads are equipped with stand-off weapons, what is the future of close quarters combat?
  • Is the ability to take and hold ground an anachronism in anti-access/area-denial environments?
  • Will the purpose of maneuver be to force enemy ground maneuver elements to expose themselves to targeting by long-range precision fires? Or will maneuver mean movement to advantageous long-range precision firing positions, particularly if targeting across domains?
  • Is an emphasis on technological determinism reducing the capabilities of land combat units to just what they shoot?

The Maneuver Warfare Debate

Such questions seem sure to renew debates regarding the relationship between fire and maneuver in U.S. land warfare doctrine. The contemporary concept of maneuver warfare emerged in the early 1980s, as military and civilian practitioners and thinkers in the U.S. and the NATO countries came to grips with the challenges posed by Soviet military power in Europe. Inspired by the tactical and operational successes of the German Army during World War II, William Lind, John Boyd, Robert Leonhard, and Richard Simpkin, among others, drew upon a variety of American, British, German, and even Soviet sources to fashion a concept that established maneuver and attrition as distinct forms of warfare. In this telling, the First World War had been dominated by an overemphasis on the attritional effects of firepower, which yielded only bloody positional stalemate. In response, the Germans innovated new tactics to restore maneuver to the battlefield, which when combined with tanks and aircraft, led to their spectacular “blitzkrieg” victories in World War II. Their adversaries learned and adapted in turn, and developed maneuver doctrines of their own that helped defeat the Germans.

Maneuver warfare theories informed development of the U.S. Army’s AirLand Battle concept and operational doctrine of the late 1980s. The U.S. Marine Corps also integrated maneuver warfare into its doctrine in the 1997 edition of its capstone manual, MCDP-1 Warfighting. The idea of a maneuver style of warfare had plenty of critics, however. By the early 1990s, the Army had settled for a balance between maneuver and firepower in its combat doctrine. Debates and discussions about deep operations persisted into the late 1990s, but were preempted in large measure by the shift to irregular warfare and counterinsurgency after September 11, 2001. U.S. land warfare doctrine did get a brief test during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but the woefully outclassed Iraq Army was quickly and decisively overwhelmed by American combat power, yielding few insights into future warfare against peer or near-peer opponents.

The last notable public exchange on this topic occurred in 2008 in Small Wars Journal. British defense writer and analyst William F. Owen, argued that a distinction between maneuver and attrition “styles” of warfare was artificial and lacked intellectual rigor and historical support. Eric Walter, a contributor to U.S. Marine Corps doctrinal publications, conceded that existing maneuver warfare theorizing was “fuzzy” in some respects, but countered that the intellectual thinking behind it nevertheless stimulated the U.S. military to sharpen its conception and conduct of warfare. The ensuing discussion thread fleshed out the respective perspectives and the debate continues.

Despite the official enthusiasm of the Army and Marine Corps, there are many aspects of the concept of multi-domain warfare that will need to be worked out if it is to become a viable combat doctrine and not simply justification for development of new weapons. One task will be to overcome the suspicions of the sister services that it is merely a gambit in the ongoing interservice budget battles. (Similar skepticism dogs the associated Third Offset Strategy.) Developing a better sense of exactly how long-range precision fires, cyber and information operations, and other innovative technologies might affect ground combat would be a good place to start.

Chinese Economy

Economic slowdowns get my attention. Latest article from CNBC at China: China’s Economy Doesn’t Look so Wonderful

Article discusses money reserves and other issues, but the major points are:

  1. “She estimates that about $65 to $70 billion leaves the country every month, including more than $80 billion in January alone.”
  2. “The eventual deflating of China’s property market is a constant concern for those worried about a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.”
  3. According to peerform reviews, they did manage to get the word “inscrutable” put into an article on China (“That means more loans were issued by unregulated financial institutions, or the shadow banking system—a growing and largely inscrutable area of China’s financial system.”)
  4.  “China reported growth of 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest in 26 years.”
  5. “Most economists outside China doubt the credibility of its growth announcements.”
  6. “That said, China watchers are generally confident in Beijing’s ability to prevent a sharp economic slowdown…”

Troop Increase in Afghanistan?

Nicely prepared article that just reinforces my last post on the subject: Trump Mulls US Troop Surge in Afghanistan

  1. 8,400 U.S. troops and 4,900 from 38 other NATO countries.
  2. 57.2% of the countries 407 districts are under Afghan government control (and it used to be better).
  3. In 2010, the US/NATO peak strength was 130,000

We await a decision, but expect that it will be to increase U.S. troops levels (and keep on keeping on).

Next National Security Advisor

This was the person who turned down the job: Robert_Harward

There were two other names floated by the administration, including the acting National Security Advisor: Keith_Kellogg and the more famous David_Petraeus. Patraeus was a four-star general while Harward and Kellogg were three-stars (Vice Admiral and Lt. General).

I don’t recall another case of someone ever turning down the offer to be National Security Advisor, although there may be. But, it is probably best for the administration to make sure that they have a clear “yes” from the candidate before they announce/leak him as a candidate. Harward was offered the job on the 14th and turned down the job two days later. Lots of speculation out there of exactly why he turned down the job, but not a whole lot of people seem to be willing to accept his response that it was for “personal reasons.”

How Many Troops?

Now things are getting interesting: pentagon-considering-recommending-combat-troops-in-syria

Hard to imagine that it would not be tens of thousands, as one has to provide a supply route and have enough force to engaged ISIL (which has been estimated to be at 20,000 or more guerillas). I gather the area of operations would cover half of Syria, parts of Northern Iraq (at least to Mosul) and the supply routes would be probably have to go through Turkey.

Of course, the Assad government in Syria has troops there, along with Hezbollah, Iranian volunteers, Kurdish volunteers and Russia. This could get very complicated.

Flynn is Out

No new rhyming headlines, but NSC Director Lt. General Michael T. Flynn has resigned. He now holds the record for the shortest serving NSC Director, having only held the seat for 24 days. The longest serving holder of that office lasted 2478 days (Henry Kissinger).

With Flynn having been fired by the previous administration and resigned from this one, I suspect this ends his career in government. He might end up as a news commentator.

The acting NSC Director is another U.S. Army Lt. General Keith Kellogg. His Wikipedia page is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Kellogg

Oh…and we still don’t have a Secretary of the Army (Robert M. Speer is acting secretary).

Iraq After Mosul

As Chris mentioned last week, Lieutenant General Stephen J. Townsend, the Commanding General of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation INHERENT RESOLVE, which is working with Iraqi, Kurdish, and Syrian forces to defeat Da’esh, expressed optimism that the campaigns to retake Mosul and Raqaa, the Da’esh stronghold in Syria, would conclude successfully within the next six months. The recapture of Mosul has been a standing objective for the Iraqi government since the city fell to Da’esh militants in 2014. While the liberation of Mosul may be a foregone conclusion at this point, it seems unlikely to mark the end of political turmoil and violence in that country.

A New Sunni Insurgency?

The Institute for the Study of War recently warned that there are signs that that a post-Da’esh insurgency is brewing in Iraq among neo-Bathist Sunni groups and the lingering al-Qaeda (AQ) presence in the country. Da’esh militants also continue to perpetrate attacks in liberated eastern Mosul, as well as outside the city, and will likely transition back to insurgent tactics.

The absence of a political settlement among Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni, and Kurdish political factions continues to feed the ongoing sectarian conflict driving the insurgent violence. AQ and the Neo-Bathist groups are positioned to exploit Sunni fears of Iranian influence over the Shi’a majority government and the Iranian-supported Shi’a militias (Hash’d al Shaabi).

Trump Administration Policy In Flux

The administration of Donald Trump has had little official to say regarding U.S. policy toward Iraq. However, recent comments by the president that the U.S. should have “kept” Iraq’s oil and the inclusion of the country in his travel ban have roiled Iraqi politics and undercut embattled Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Some Iraqi lawmakers have demanded that  al-Abadi reduce cooperation with the U.S., limit U.S. troop deployments there, and impose a reciprocal travel ban on U.S. citizens. Hashd members have threatened to retaliate against U.S. troops in Iraq should Iran be attacked.

In a conversation with al-Abadi last week, Trump promised greater U.S. assistance against terrorism. While Trump has expressed a clear intent to ramp up efforts to destroy Da’esh, accomplishing that goal would have little effect on the underlying political divisions afflicting Iraq. Given Iraq’s military dependence on Iranian assistance, increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran would place al-Abadi’s government in an even more difficult position.