Category War by Numbers

Yesterday, the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda published a report that stated “According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9,861 people killed and 16,153 wounded.”

According to CNN, the article was published Monday at 12:09 AM Moscow time. At 9:56 PM Moscow time the story was updated and removed all references to the death count. 

So, this article was updated because 1) this figure embarrassed the Russian government, or 2) the data was incorrect, or update: 3) it could be hackers. 

I have two problems with this report:

1. The wounded-to-killed ratio is way off.
2. This is an unexplainably high loss rate.

First, lets look at the wounded to killed ratios, which I have done blog posts on (see: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)) and have a chapter on in my book War by Numbers. The wounded-to-killed ratio is 1.64-to-1. Normally you would expect to see a figure like 3-to-1 or higher.

For example, the other Russian figure released: 498 killed and 1,597 wounded, has a wounded-to-killed ratio of 3.21-to-1. The Donetsk People’s Republic reported as of 17 March 349 killed and 1,930 wounded for a wounded-to-killed ratio of 5.53-to-1. And now suddenly, there is a wounded-to-killed ratio of 1.64-to-1. No war in American history has had a wounded-to-killed ratio that low.

So, either this data is under-reporting the wounded by at least a factor of two, or it is over-reporting the killed by a factor of two.

How does one over-report the killed? Well, this happened with the U.S. data on the Korea War, where the actual number killed in combat was 33,686, along with 2,830 non-battle deaths. But, there were 17,730 other deaths in the U.S. armed forces during the course of war due to natural causes and accidents. Some people lumped these figures together, producing a figure of 54,260 U.S. deaths for the Korea War. This higher figure was even published by the Pentagon (see:  How Many Americans Died in Korea?). You will still see that figure banded about on some websites.

Or, someone could have simply typed down the wrong number. Most people, news organizations and this blog do make typos. Regardless, the killed number is suspicious because it does not mesh well with the wounded figure. If, for example, there were three wounded for every killed, then this would mean the Russian casualties were about 40,000, which is very high. This leads us to our second point.

If the Russians lost 40,000 people out of a force of 150,000 this is unusually high losses. Over 25% of the force. Not only is this historically unusually high, but it is kind of hard to imagine. At 25% losses, the Russians would have certainly been stripped of almost all infantry from almost all units, plus a whole lot more. Yet I gather Russia still have units functioning in Ukraine.

Furthermore, it is estimated by the U.S. that Ukrainian losses are 2,000 to 4,000 killed. So, does this mean that Ukrainian Army is achieving a 5-to-1 kill ratio (or merely a 2.5-to-1 kill ratio)? That is a little hard to believe considering the advantages in firepower that the Russian Army has.

And then there is the question of actually how the Ukrainian Army managed to cause 40,000 casualties. The Ukrainians don’t have the firepower the Russians do, and at least during World War II 60% or more of casualties were caused by artillery. So, in that environment how do the Ukrainians suffer 2,000 to 4,000 dead and the Russians suffer 10,000? Were the Russians doing human waves attacks? We do not see evidence of that.

So, while I am hesitant to dismiss this report, I am also hesitant to accept it. One must hold out the possibility that this report is simply wrong.

 

Not much movement on the ground, but it does look like some serious fights the last couple of days around Mikolaiv and Kharkov. Front line trace is not moving much. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the ninth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. There have been some Russian tank and jet aircraft losses around this area.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Continue to see news reports (CNN and France 24) of the locals building up the defenses there. They did damage (sink?) a 1300-to-1700-ton patrol vessel yesterday: Vasily Bykov

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.  

There was at least one video-based report a couple of days ago of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. I then noted this recent video, which kind of looks like a recent Ukrainian counterattack. See: Welcome to Ukraine S…. This minute long video is definitely worth watching. It shows four tanks abandoned/destroyed, two Lt. Colonels were killed, and at least a half-dozen fuel trucks taken/destroyed.  The fight occurred at Chuhuiv, 35 km SE of Kharkov. It is on the map above.

As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. We do have a casualty report dated 7 March from the Donetsk People’s Republic saying they have 47 soldiers killed and 179 wounded.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 8 of the siege. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. 

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. There has been a lot of fighting here recently, but it looks like the Ukrainian Army is holding.

The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol. 

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to the Ukrainian defense minister, more have 140,000 Ukrainians has returned and more than 20,000 foreigners from 52 countries have appealed to fight for Ukraine. This includes about 3,000 Americans who have “expressed interest” according to Ukraine. This also includes “up to 500” Indians. I have seen reports of volunteers from places like Thailand and Japan (70 volunteers). All these figures are questionable, we shall see how many actually show up in Lviv.  According to Fox News some are being turned away because of a lack of weapons. According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble has rallied to 117.80 to a dollar as of 8:57 AM EST. Update: Ruble ended the day (4:45 PM) at 144.01, so not that good of a rally. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $123.08 as of 8:58 AM EST. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting for 8 March 474 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000 civilians killed. Ukraine is reporting on 1 March over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable).

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting on 7 March that they had 47 soldiers killed and 179 wounded (3.81-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting at this time 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

Russian Equipment Losses: As of 2100 hours on 7 March, @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Tanks: 141

AFVs: 89

IFVs: 131

APCs: 52

Jet aircraft: 10

Helicopters: 11

 

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: As of 2100 hours on 7 March, @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

Tanks: 46

AFVs: 38

IFVs: 33

APCs: 18

Jet aircraft: 6

Helicopters: 0

 

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 3,000 deaths. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian general staff that more than 11,000 Russian troops were killed in the first 10 days.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. Mariupol is supposed to have fallen already. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality,
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 9 March 2022.” View with caution.

There is really nothing new today. Not sure if that is because there is nothing new, or because the majority of reporters and analysts have the day off. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the sixth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. There is a video of a Russian airplane being shot down there yesterday. So, the forces there are clearly well-enough armed. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen CNN reports on the morning of 4 March of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated. There is at least one video-based report of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. Have no idea of its size or success. As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 5 of the siege. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol. There are videos showing large Ukrainian protests in Kherson, maybe around 2,000 people. This is in a city that is 20% Russian and 45% Russian speaking (in 2001).  

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 124.04 as of 9.57 AM EST. Has not changed since yesterday. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $118.05 (at 09:58 AM EST). Has not change since yesterday. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting 364 civilians confirmed dead in the war, 23 in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 3,000 deaths. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian general staff that more than 11,000 Russian troops were killed in the first 10 days.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly two days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 6 March 2022.” View with caution.

There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the fourth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said yesterday morning on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen reports yet again this morning of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 3 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Update: 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate (updated): 107.99 as of 10.42 AM EST. It was 124.75 rubles to a dollar when I checked it this morning, but this was a brief spike. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $113.84 (at 09:03 EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 331 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Update: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly four days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 4 March 2022.” View with caution.

 

Well, nothing much changing on the ground yet. Some shelling of Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

The big story is what appears to be the coming major attacks on Kiev and Kharkov. These are going to start either today or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It does take time to deploy all the reinforcements. This appears to be properly organized and supplied attacks with artillery support, and so forth. So far, they just appear to be shelling them. Not sure for what purpose.

I don’t think Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. CNN is reporting that Kiev is accessible. Is Russia going to try to surround one or both cities before going in (which does take some manpower) or are they just going to try to go in, under the assumption that under major pressure, the Ukrainians will fold? While the Russians are clearly concentrating considerable force to the north of both Kiev and Kharkov, is it not known to this writer how many trained Ukranian forces are defending each of these cities, is it 4,000 or 40,000? 

In a real sense, this first phase of this campaign is over, and Russia clearly did not win it. Having tried for the cheap and easy victory using “forward detachments,” now comes the serious fighting to either isolate and/or take Kiev and Kharkov. This is a new second phase of the campaign. My sense is that if these two cities hold out, then this war will probably be terminated sooner rather than later.

There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces to the east and the west of it. They already have the city wholly or partially enveloped. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

It does not appear that Belarus has committed any forces to the war, although Russia has been able to freely use their territory and facilities.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Update: Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen reports of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure if it has been completely isolated.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. Not sure if Russia is going to attack it. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): I gather Kherson fell to Russia over the last two days. I gather it was contested through, and there are still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. Not sure how secure is that control. There are Ukrainian protesters in Berdyansk. A certain amount of Russian occupation forces are going to be tied down. They didn’t have overwhelming force to start the offensive.

 

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is 6,817. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exhange rate: 104.4 rubles to a dollar. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $112.66 (at 08:48 EST)

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 136 civilians dead in the war (the previous day they reported 406). Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Update: Russia reports 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures.

Update: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

Update: Russian Troop Deaths Expose a Potential Weakness of Putin’s Strategy

It is clear that at least 1,000 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the military situation as of 13:36 (UTC), Wednesday, March 2, 2022. View with caution.

My opinion of this potential conflict is summarized in these two posts.  

So Is Russia going to actually attack Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Russian Invasions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The first post “Russian Invasions” was made on 5 December 2021. The next one was done on 22 January 2022. Over the last two months, nothing that has happened has changed my opinion. 

If I was going to invade Ukraine, I would use surprise, overwhelming force and hit them during good weather. This is not what is happening right now. So, I still have a hard time believing we are about to see a major conventional war starting this month. 

On the other hand, a lot of people are saying something very different. Let me address a few of their points:

Time:

Apparently, the current U.S. administration is saying that the attack may happen in the second half of this month. To quote from the New York Times article by Helen Cooper and David E. Sanger that I found here: U.S. Warns of Grim Toll if Putin Pursues Full Invasion of Ukraine

“Should Mr. Putin decide to invade, American officials believe he is not likely to move until the second half of February.”

So, maybe a five-week campaign season? Two weeks in February and maybe three weeks in March. In 1943, the German offensive past Belgorod was called off around 24 March 1943 because of mud. Don’t know if “mud season” arrives sooner now and have not done any analysis of the currently mobility of the modern Russian army in poor weather conditions, but I am guessing it will still be a problem. The “American officials” quote in the NYT article are apparently aware of this with their next sentence “By that point, more ground will have frozen, making it easier to move heavy vehicles and equipment….”

So… five, maybe six, weeks campaign season, then mud. 

As they note in the NYT article “…the officials warned that if Mr. Putin chose the most aggressive of his options, he could quickly surround or capture Kyiv…” 

Maybe. Back in 1943, the Russians during the Battle of Kursk started their offensive north of Belgorod on 3 August 1943 and took Kiev on 6 November 1943. I am assuming that the 170,000+ Ukrainian Army will have some ability to slow the Russians down (unlike the Afghani army in August of last year). 

Force Levels:

I gather Russia currently has around 110,000 troops and according to NYT “…the Russian military had assembled 70 percent of the forces it would need to mount a full invasion of Ukraine…who assessed that Mr. Putin had concluded that he would need some 150,000 troops from 110 battalion tactical groups to conquer Ukraine….”

So, they will have 150,000 troops “…to conquer Ukraine…”. I gather this includes the “Thirty thousand troops…now in Belarus.”

The Ukrainian Army is 170,000+. Now, I do not know how good the Ukrainian Army is relative to the Russian Army. Suspect the Russian communications, recon, spotting and artillery are pretty good (see: The Russian Artillery Strike That Spooked The U.S. Army | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)). They will certainly have air superiority (unless NATO decides to directly support Ukraine). So, they will have the advantage. The range of casualty estimates (see below) seem to give credit the Russians with a 1.7-to-1 to 2.5-to-1 advantage in casualty effectiveness.

Still, I do expect the Ukrainian army, on the defensive, in prepared positions, fully warned, recently supplemented, and maybe somewhat motivated to defend their homeland, is something more than just speed bumps. I don’t really see how Russia is going to take Kiev in a five-week campaign.

Casualties:

This one gives me real heartburn. My suspicion is that the officials briefed “casualties” and it ended up in the NYT as killed. Keep in mind “casualties” include killed, wounded, wounded and later died of wounds, missing and captured (and deserters). The number of wounded usually outnumbers the number killed by 3- or 4-to-1 and sometimes as high as 10-to-1. I do have a full chapter on the subject in my book War by Numbers. 

The NYT says “…potential deaths…of 5,000 to 25,000 members of the Ukrainian military…”

25,000 deaths times three wounded per person killed is 100,000 casualties. 100,000 casualties from a force of 170,000 is almost 60% losses. Are they really talking about an army-level force taking 60% losses in a five-week campaign? That has not happened a lot. Do those losses include the various reserves and militias that Ukraine can call up? If so, the numbers mesh together better.

The armed forces of Ukraine are 215,000 active (2022). Their reserves are 250,000 (2022). Available for military service is 11,139,646, ages 16-49 (2015). Fit for military service is 6,979,035 (2015). Reaching military age annually is 470,406 (2021). So, how big of a Ukrainian military are we talking about here? 170K in ground forces, or half-million or more counting reserves, militia and new call-ups? If Ukraine calls up its reserves and draft militia, is Russia really going to take (and hold) a lot of Ukraine with an army of 150,000? Anyhow, a lot of things don’t match up here. Perhaps that is because the NYT did not properly quote the “officials,” perhaps because of the details of some of the scenarios they drafted (which may be improbable), or perhaps because they have garbled their calculations (this has happened before, remember Afghanistan in August 2021).

Anyhow, it is hard for me to evaluate the data in the NYT article. In the meantime, I will stick to my opinions given in my first two blog posts on the subject.

Based upon on the buzz lately in the news and comments by some Western politicians, it appears that is only a question of when, not if, that Russia is going to attack Ukraine. Yet, Russia is saying they are not going to attack. So… who is right?

It still doesn’t look to me like they are going to attack. This opinion is not based upon any inside knowledge or deep understanding of the situation. I only know what I read in the news. But a few things get my attention:

Force Ratios: First of all, Russia has amassed a 100K+ troops along the border, plus some forces are in a training exercise in Belarus. I gather the actual figure is on the low side of 100,000, vice being near 200,000. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Army, before mobilization is almost 200,000. So, is Russia really massing so it can attack while outnumbered?

Now, there are a few other factors in what is not that simple of a comparison. First of all, Russia can move more troops into the area(s) of interest on short notice. So that buildup of 100K+ could quickly turn into 300K+. If Russia had more than 300K troops in the area, I would become very concerned. But right now, they do not.

Weather: People are making noise like something will happen in February. It is freakin’ cold at that time of year. There is snow on the ground. Do they really want to attack then? I would wait until after the spring thaw, like the Germans did in 1941, 1942 and 1943, when you have a nice long summer for your campaign.

Warning: Surprise is a nice force multiplier. I have a chapter on the subject in my book War by Numbers. It is now no surprise if an attack comes. Furthermore, they even lack strategic surprise, so Ukraine has been able to lobby for more aid and has received more weapons. Why would Russia help their potential adversary get prepared, which is what has happened over the last couple of months? Ukraine is receiving weaponry and support that is probably would not have otherwise received. So, did Russia really choose to give Ukraine 2-3 months of warning to prepare before they attack them? This seems counter-intuitive.

Again, I go back to my original post, which is here:

Russian Invasions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I may be proven wrong come February and Russia suddenly comes swarming across the border to take the rest of “New Russia,” to take Kharkov (the second largest city in Ukraine) and to cross the Pripet marshes and Chernobyl/Pripyat area to threaten Kiev, but right now, I am not sure this is the real scenario.

I still think the threats are part of a larger negotiation strategy (although I don’t rule out that the Russia government has simply made a mistake).