Category Syria

So Why Are Iraqi Records Important?

Last preachy post on this subject:

The Sad Story Of The Captured Iraqi DESERT STORM Documents

So, why does it matter? Well, Iraq has been involved in three wars in recent time that are significant.

We engaged them in the 1991 Gulf War. Even though this was a truly lopsided result, we do not have good two-sided data available for this war (it may exist, but it is classified/closed). As this was our largest conventional operation since the Korean War (1950-1953), then having good two-sided data for this war would be useful. As it is, the last major conventional fight that the U.S. participated in where there is good two-sided data is in Italy through June 1944. After that, German records significantly degrade and we do not have a good collection of opposing force data for Korea, Vietnam or Iraq….although we do have it for Grenada ;).

Then we invaded and conquered Iraq in 2003. This was effectively a three-division operation that went extremely well also. As this was the last major conventional operation we conducted, it would be useful to have good data for the opposing side (hopefully we do, but again, it is classified/closed).

But, probably most significant is the Iran-Iraq War from 1980-1988. This was the largest conventional war since the early 1970s (India-Pakistan in 1971 and the Arab-Israeli War of 1973). This was also the first major war that used chemical weapons since World War I (1914-1918). Chemical weapons and nerve agents were used extensively by Iraq against the Iranians, and also brutally against Kurdish civilians. Iran did make limited used of chemical weapons in response. It is also the only extensive use of nerve agents in warfare. This is probably important to understand and analyze. We do not have records from the Iranian side, so it would be nice to have records from the Iraqi side. Hard to analyze their operations if we have records from neither side. We really have no actual operational data on the effects of chemical weapons in combat since 1918, and we have no operational data on the effects of nerve agents in combat. This could be a major shortfall.

Now, the documents destroyed, according to the article we originally cited, was only the material captured during the 1991 Gulf War, with records dating back to 1978.  Some of it (at least 60%) was preserved on digital tapes. And, perhaps we have preserved all the military records we captured in 2003. So, in fact there may be an extensive collection available (at least 725,000 pages), although it is classified or closed to researchers. Based upon our track record of record preservation from Vietnam and onward, I have reason to be concerned.

Anyhow, a related link on our chemical warfare studies (including links to articles on the Iran-Iraq War):

Survey of German WWI Records

 

P.S. There are over a dozen counties in the world that still have chemical warfare arsenals, including Syria, Iran and North Korea.

 

Raqqa Has Fallen

It would appear that Raqqa has fallen: https://www.yahoo.com/news/islamic-state-raqqa-mounts-last-stand-around-city-083330251.html

  1. This announcement comes from U.S.-backed militias.
  2. It was only a four-month battle (in contrast to Mosul).
  3. “A formal declaration of victory in Raqqa will be made soon”

This does appear to end the current phase of the Islamic State, which exploded out of the desert to take Raqqa and Mosul in the first half of 2014. It lasted less than 4 years. It was an interesting experiment for a guerilla movement to suddenly try to seize power in several cities and establish a functioning state in the middle of a war. Sort of gave conventional forces something to attack. You wonder if this worked to the advantage of ISIL in the long run or not.

I gather now that the state-less Islamic state will go back to being a guerilla movement. Not sure what its long term prognosis is. This is still a far-from-resolved civil war going on in Syria.

Deployed Troop Counts

Well, turns out we have a little more deployed troops in Afghanistan than is previously reported. Previously it has been reported to be 8,400. Turns out we have 11,000. This does not include the 3,900 that have been recently authorized to go there.

We also have officially 5,262 in Iraq and 503 in Syria. These figures are low with a couple of thousand more troops in both countries (not sure if that is supposed to a couple of thousand more in each of these two countries).

So potentially we are looking at around 15,000 troops in Afghanistan and may have around 8,000 troops in Iraq and Syria.

Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-military-idUSKCN1BA2IF

 

 

Why did the AIM-9X Sidewinder Miss?

This article from Popular Mechanics speculates why the AIM-9X Sidewinder was distracted by the Syrian Su-22’s flares (and missed the plane):

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/news/a27094/su-22-dodge-aim-9x-sidewinder/

Over Syria on 18 June a U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet locked onto a Su-22 Fitter at a range of 1.5. miles. It fired an AIM-9X heat-seeking Sidewinder missile at it. The Syrian pilot was able to send off flares to draw the missile away from the Su-22. The AIM-9X is not supposed to be so easily distracted. They had to shoot down the Su-22 with a radar guided AMRAAM missile.

Anyhow, the article speculates that this is because the missiles are not calibrated to Soviet flares, instead being calibrated to American flares. Have no idea how much of this is a plausible explanation.

 

New Details of Shoot Down

Article on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/21/politics/us-syria-russia-dogfight/index.html

Highlights:

  1. It was a pair of U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets
  2. They were operating from the carrier USS George H. W. Bush
  3. They fired an AIM-9 Sidewinder at half a mile away
  4. Syrian Su-22 deployed defensive flares causing the U.S. missile to miss.
  5. They then fire an AIM-120 AMRAAM which hit the Su-22.
  6. Syrian pilot ejected and probably landed in ISIL-controlled territory. Syria states that he is missing.

According to an email sent to me from sources that I cannot confirm the veracity of:

According to a source in the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF), Lieutenant Colonel Ali Fahd took off in the afternoon of June 18 from the T4 airbase east of Homs.  We know that the warplane is a Soviet made ground attack Su-22M4 with the serial number “3224”.

According to our source the Su-22M4 was loaded with six general purpose OFAB 250-270 bombs. Ali Fahd’s mission was to strike ISIS fighters and vehicles attempting to withdrew from Rusafah in the province of Raqqah towards Sukhnah in the province of Homs and Oqerbat in the eastern Hama countryside – near Ali Fahd’s home town of Salamyiah. Connection with Ali Fahd was lost after reaching the operation area over Rusafah.

According to Ali Fahd’s relative Al-Masdar News reporter, Majd Fahed, Ali Fahd was captured by the SDF and Tiger Forces Leader General Suheil Al-Hassan is negotiating with SDF in order to free Ali Fahd.

The SDF side has released no official comments on the situation. However, SDF sources confirmed that Ali Fahd was captured by the SDF suggesting that the group will release him in the end.

Anyhow, really don’t want to get into “reporting” as I have books to write.

Syrian SU-22 shot down by U.S. Navy F/A-18E

Well, this is not the first drama over the skies of Syria: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/u-shoots-down-syrian-fighter-jet-over-syria-210705900–abc-news-topstories.html

Back on 24 November 2015, a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian SU-24M with a AIM-9X Sidewinder missile. Turkey is a member of NATO.

This is the first plane the U.S. has shot down since Kosovo in 1999. In 1999 Serbia lost 6 Mig-29s: three shot down by USAF F-15s, one by a USAF F-16, one by a RNAF F-16 (Royal Netherlands Air Force) and one probably by friendly (Serbian) fire from the ground. The U.S. lost an F-16C and F-117 Nighthawk from anti-aircraft.

 

Finally going for Raqqa

Well, Mosul has taken a while….and it is not quite over yet. Now we are finally going after Raqqa. Some say it will be quicker (hard to imagine that it could be slower): https://uk.news.yahoo.com/battle-liberate-raqqa-isis-apos-152800876.html

A few highlights from the article:

  1. Awad of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) says it will be quicker. Not sure what his expertise is.
  2. Raqqa has (or had) a population of 300,000 (compared to Mosul which had 1.3 million).
  3. SDF has 45,000 people of which 13,000 are Arab fighters (and most of the rest are Kurds?).
  4. They are 1 km away from Raqqa in the east, and 3 km away in the west and north.
  5. The U.S. estimates 3,000 to 4,000 ISIL fighters in Raqqa.
  6. Turkey is not particularly happy with the SDF.

 

 

Economics of Warfare 17-3

Finishing up the examination of the seventeenth lecture from Professor Michael Spagat’s Economics of Warfare course that he gives at Royal Holloway University. It is posted on his blog Wars, Numbers and Human Losses at:

https://mikespagat.wordpress.com/

The first two posts on this lecture addressed the impact of climate change on political violence and civil conflict. This third part “completely shifts gears” and looks at the war in Syria (starting slide 31).  He provides data for percent of men, woman and children killed by weapon type (i.e. Air attack, mortar, small arms) for Iraq (slide 33) and Syria (slide 34). There are a higher percent of woman and children casualties in Iraq than Syria. Not sure what conclusion to draw from that little factoid without further study.

The link to his lecture is here (with the part on Syria covered in slides 31-35): http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Economics%20of%20Warfare/Lecture%2017.pdf

Mosul Battle will be finished in days?

By the way, in between all the other rather dramatic news, there is still a battle raging in Mosul. Now, the Iraqi’s are claiming it will be over in days (before 26 May): http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39882257

The statement was made on the 10th, and it is now the 20th.

Just as a reminder, as it is been a while since we looked at the timeline, back around 18 October, they were claiming that it could take two months: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2016/10/18/duration-estimate-for-mosul/

  1. They started the offensive around 15 October https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2016/10/16/its-started/
  2. Arrived to the outskirts of Mosul and started taking parts of Mosul in early November: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2016/11/10/taking-mosul/
  3. Took the Eastern half of Mosul around 22 January: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2017/01/23/east-mosul-taken/
  4. And then they started fighting for the western half of Mosul around 18 February: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2017/02/19/offensive-to-re-take-western-mosul-has-started/

Not the fastest offensive we have seen. For example, the Germans arrived on the outskirts of Stalingrad in August 1942, had taken most of the city by the end of November, and were still there, surrounded and starving, in February 1943.

One final note, remember this prediction in early February: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2017/02/09/timeline-for-mosul-and-raqqa/

It stated that U.S. commander in Iraq, U.S. Army Lt. General Stephan Townsend, said “within the next six months I think we’ll see both (the Mosul and Raqqa campaigns) conclude.”

So, are we still on track to take Raqqa by the end of July?

Syria and Sarin

Interesting article from the British doctor who examined the samples from the chemical attack last week: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/11/opinions/trump-right-syria-strike-opinion-de-bretton-gordon/

  1. It was Sarin
  2. Sarin used in East Ghouta in August 2013 (up to 1,500 killed)
  3. Chlorine used in Aleppo in December 2016
  4. In October 2013 the Syrian regime declared 1,300 tons of chemicals, but only 16 tons of Mustard gas.
    1. No Sarin was declared