Category National Security Policy

Aegis, THAAD, Patriots and GBI

Don’t want to steal Shawn’s thunder as he is working up an article on THAAD, but this is a nice little graphic showing the defense of the area: U.S. can Intercept North Korean ICBMs with 36 Deployed Interceptors

We do have THAADs deployed in Hawaii, Guam, South Korea and Alaska (the map does not show them in Hawaii, South Korea nor Alaska). The U.S. Army has five THAAD batteries that are part of the 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade.

There are only 4 GBI’s (ground based interceptors) in Vandenberg. There is some question over the ability of a THAAD to intercept an ICBM (vice an IRBM), but we will let Shawn discuss that. Not sure how many Aegis systems we have in the area, but as they are sea based, it could several and they can move. Again, not sure about their ability to intercept an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile vice the much smaller IRBM, Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile). Korea is currently threatening Guam with four IRBMs. They most likely do not yet have a nuclear warhead with a working ballistic vehicle (BV) connected to an ICBM, but may be less than a year away from this capability.

U.S. And China: Deterrence And Resolve Over North Korea

U.S. B-1 bombers overfly Korean Peninsula after North’s ICBM test, June 20th, 2017. [picture-alliance/AP Photo/Lee Jin-man]

While North Korea tests its inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM)s, the U.S. and China demonstrate their capabilities and resolve to use force, both nuclear and conventional. These shows of force seem to be ratcheting up, as the North Korean tests occur more frequently.  Flights of bombers and naval exercises are also complemented by words, sometimes quite strong words, such as those by the U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander, Admiral Scott Smith, who while speaking at the Australian National University’s security conference in late July, said,

Every member of the U.S. military has sworn an oath to defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic and to obey the officers and the president of the United States as commander and chief appointed over us.

Asked by an academic in the audience whether he would make a nuclear attack on China next week if President Trump ordered it, Swift replied: “The answer would be: yes.”  These words are then reported in the press as “US admiral would ‘nuke China next week’ if Trump ordered it.” (South China Morning Post)  That kind of bombast is sensational, and intended to draw in readers. The reality of nuclear deterrence is that it has to be credible, meaning that the target nation must believe that nuclear weapons would be used if a certain line is crossed. This may make uncomfortable reading today, as Cold War memories are fading, but it has been reality since 1945.

[Photo deleted at the request of AFP]

China, meanwhile, has staged two different naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, likely organized to mark the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) 90th Anniversary on August 1st, 2017. It is ironic that naval exercises celebrate the Army’s anniversary, and that concurrently the PLA is shrinking relative to the Chinese Navy and Air Force. “The PLA Army will likely take the brunt of the reduction, and the PLA Navy and Air Force are expected to increase in size,” according to Dr. David Finkelstein of the Center for Naval Analysis. Both the Navy, officially the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Air Force, officially the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) are nominally part of the PLA.

It is also ironic that these naval exercises will close a portion of the maritime commons to commercial traffic, also known as Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC), articulated by Alfred Thayer Mahan, of the U.S. Naval War College.

The PLA Navy’s North Sea Fleet and the Shandong Maritime Safety Administration announced in the past two days that the central part of the Yellow Sea would be cordoned off to all marine traffic from Thursday for military purposes. An area of about 40,000 square kilometres off the coastal city of Qingdao, where the North Sea Fleet is headquartered, was expected to be affected by the drill, which would involve live ammunition, Weihai Evening Post reported on Wednesday. [Korea Times]

A US Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II VFMA 121 refuels using a KC-130J Hercules with VMGR 152 during Aviation Delivered Ground Refueling training at MCAS Iwakuni, Japan, on 11 April. The technique will increase the STOVL fighter’s ability to refuel in austere locations when other resources may not be available. [USMC]

The US Marine Corps (USMC) has deployed the F-35B to their forward operating base in Iwakuni Japan, and continues to innovate with their doctrine and Concepts Of Operation (CONOPS), as previously reported in this blog. This stealth strike fighter capability, on the relative doorstep of North Korea, and also relatively difficult to reprisal strikes from North Korea, seems to be one of the strongest deterrent forces.

More to follow on the on-going F-35 debate, as retired Marine Lt. Col. David Berke (also previously quoted in this blog), and Pierre Sprey go head to head on the topic in an Aviation Week podcast.

Largest Armed Forces in the World

Just a listing by strength of active duty personnel (Army, Navy and Air Force). U.S. and some of its allies are in bold. Allies = countries we are obligated to defend by treaty or law (Taiwan), a total of 48 (in bold are the 27 NATO members, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Australia), including 16 Latin American nations in the Rio pact (but not placed in bold):

  1. China: 2,233,000
  2. United States: 1,492,200
  3. India: 1,325,000
  4. North Korea: 1,190,000
  5. Russia: 845,000
  6. Pakistan: 643,800
  7. South Korea: 630,000
  8. Iran: 523,000
  9. Algeria: 520,000
  10. Turkey: 510,600
  11. Vietnam: 482,000
  12. Colombia: 466,713
  13. Egypt: 438,500
  14. Burma: 406,000
  15. Indonesia: 395,500
  16. Thailand: 360,850
  17. Brazil: 318,480
  18. Taiwan: 290,000
  19. Sri Lanka: 276,700
  20. Iraq: 271,500
  21. Mexico: 270,250
  22. Ukraine: 250,000
  23. Japan: 247,150
  24. Sudan: 244,300
  25. Saudi Arabia: 233,500
  26. France: 222,200
  27. South Sudan: 210,000
  28. Eritrea: 201,750
  29. Morocco: 195,800
  30. Germany: 186,450
  31. Afghanistan: 185,800
  32. Israel: 176,500
  33. Italy: 176,000
  34. United Kingdom: 169,150
  35. Canada: 166,000
  36. Bangladesh: 157,050
  37. Greece: 143,350
  38. Ethiopia: 138,000
  39. Spain: 134,900
  40. Democratic Republic of the Congo: 134,250
  41. Philippines: 125,000
  42. Syria: 125,000
  43. Cambodia: 124,300
  44. Peru: 115,000
  45. Venezuela: 115,000
  46. Malaysia: 109,000
  47. Angola: 107,000
  48. Jordan: 100,500
  49. Poland: 99,300
  50. Nepal: 95,750
  51. Nigeria: 80,000
  52. Argentina: 73,100
  53. Singapore: 72,500
  54. Romania: 71,400

……

61. Australia: 56,200
71. Portugal: 42,600
75. Netherlands: 37,400 
78. Bulgaria: 31,300
79. Belgium: 30,700
83. Hungary: 26,500
84: Norway: 25,800
88. Czech Republic: 23,650
97. Denmark: 17,200
98. Lithuania: 17,131
100. Slovakia: 15,850
107. Croatia: 14,506
108: Albania: 14,250
129: New Zealand: 8,550 (U.S. suspended obligations in 1986)
133. Slovenia: 7,600
138. Estonia: 5,750
140: Latvia: 5,310
161: Luxembourg: 900
167+: Iceland: 0

Rio Pact includes Argentina, Bahamas, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and of course, the United States.

This listing is drawn from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

It is based upon the 2014 edition of “The Military Balance” by IISS.

They also have a number of other lists…if that is your thing:

The Challenge of Getting to a 350-Ship Fleet

This article, while a little more political than I prefer, does nicely address the reasons why building up to a 350-355 ship navy is going to be a challenge: Trumps-navy-is-already-sunk

The main points are:

  1. Current fleet is 275 warships
  2. The proposed DOD budget for FY2018 is $603, which is only $18 million over the previous administration’s projected budget.
  3. Proposed budget only asks for 8 new ships, which is been the build rate for a while.
  4. The fleet is on track to expand to 308-310 ships.
  5. Previous ship-building account was $15 billion annually. This is on track for a 308-310 ship fleet.
  6. To grow the fleet to 350-355 ships would require a budget of $27 billion annually (and I assume increased costs for operation and maintenance also).
  7. I assume this would take around eight years or more of increased building at these increased costs (so at least $90 billion more total).
  8. The U.S. industrial base is sized to build 6-9 warships a year, the rate would have to increase to 12-15 warships a year for a 350-355 ship fleet.
  9. Article concludes that a 350-355 ship fleet is not going to happen (it will be at 308-310 ships) and notes that no naval production increase was in the proposed 2018 budget.

 

Oh Well

Mark Green has been nominated as Secretary of the Army: army-secretary-pick

Here is his Wikipedia bio: Mark_Green_(politician)

West Point class of 1986. Platoon and Company commander, then went to medical school becoming a doctor. Was a flight surgeon in special operations. Served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Was the doctor who first sat with and interviewed Saddam Hussein when he was captured. Wrote a book about it: night-saddam-Mark-Green-md

Left service in 2006 after 20 years. Founded a medical company. Elected to the Tennessee Senate in 2012.

I guess we will have to see how the third nominee for Secretary of the Army fares.

mark-green-trump-army-secretary-withdraws

10% Part II

With the budget resolution voted in by congress that runs until the September of this year (end of the fiscal year), I gather the defense budget is the Obama proposed 2017 defense budget plus $15 billion (which is half of the additional budget that Trump requested for 2017)….so total budget of around $583 (2017 request) or $596 (actually spent) + $15 billion: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/lawmakers-common-ground-1t-plan-201456675.html

Also see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The big increase will have to wait for the FY 2018 budget, proposed to be $639 billion (I gather, although the figure $603 was put out when Trump first announced his 10% increase). Of course, they did not fully sort out the FY2017 budget until five months before fiscal year 2017 ended, so I am not giving much of chance that they will get the FY 2018 budget sorted out before the start of the next fiscal year (this coming October), as I gather there a few controversial expenditures and cuts in the next government budget. So defense spending will remain fairly level for some months to come.

…

P.S.: The 15 billion increase is an additional 12.5 billion  for this fiscal year (ends Sept. 30) and “…an additional $2.5 billion contingent on Trump delivering a plan to Congress for defeating the Islamic State militant group.” This last part seems a little odd: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2017/0501/To-avoid-government-shutdown-negotiators-reach-deal-on-1-trillion-budget

Re-Making the NSC

Well, it looks like the National Security Council has been re-structured in the first three months of the administration, with the original head Flynn replaced by H.R. McMaster, Steve Bannon removed from it, the Chairmen of the JCS and Director of National Intelligence invited back,  and Deputy National Security Advisor K.T. McFarland “promoted” to ambassador to Singapore. Dina Powell remains as the Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy. This is a wholesale change in the first three months of the administration. It is still lacking the traditional highly experienced foreign policy scholar or professional in the mode of a Kissinger, Brzezinski, or Scowcroft. McMaster’s reputation was as a combat commander, not a foreign policy expert.

My old post on the subject was: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2016/12/15/what-is-missing/

I tend to have a bias towards experienced professionals running government agencies.

Mark Green nominated as Secretary of the Army

Mark Green has been nominated as Secretary of the Army: army-secretary-pick

Here is his Wikipedia bio: Mark_Green_(politician)

West Point class of 1986. Platoon and Company commander, then went to medical school becoming a doctor. Was a flight surgeon in special operations. Served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Was the doctor who first sat with and interviewed Saddam Hussein when he was captured. Wrote a book about it: night-saddam-Mark-Green-md

Left service in 2006 after 20 years. Founded a medical company. Elected to the Tennessee Senate in 2012.