Category Iraq

Ran across this very optimistic article on Mosul: Uncertainly Roils Planning for Mosul Liberation

As the sub-headline notes, “ISIS fighters fleeing Iraq’s second largest city as coalition forces prepare for tough fight.” If ISIL fighters are fleeing the city….it may not be that tough of a fight.

A few notes:

1. U.S. Army asked for another 500 troops (I gather the real number is 615).
2. U.S. “authorities” say they will need at least 24,000 trained, well equipped Iraqi soldiers (this is less than the 30,000 reported in some articles).
3. Provides three specific accounts of recent ISIL losses in battle (from sources I don’t know). The two from air strikes that could easily be over-estimated, but the 40 lost from a counterattack in the Qayara area gets my attention. Was this a company-sized attack?
4. Approximately 20,000 “terrorists” are in Mosul.
5. There is a force of 1,000 “resistance fighters” in the city, meaning a Iraqi fifth column.

Article was written by someone named Douglas Burton who is: “…a former U.S. State Department official in Kirkuk, Iraq and writes news and commentary from Washington, D.C.”

Anyhow, unusually optimistic article. If true, Mosul could easily fall. We have seen before in Iraq and Afghanistan that some of these climatic fights are indeed anti-climatic as the defending force mostly bails out ahead of time.

Another article on Mosul: In battle for Iraq’s Mosul, many forces with many motives

The line that caught my attention: “Still, Iraq’s military is thousands of soldiers short of the estimated 30,000 troops needed to launch the assault, and the existing forces are stretched thin trying to hold other recaptured territory, particularly in western Anbar province.”

A series of articles over the last week or so that seems to have bits and pieces as to what are the strength of forces around Mosul. They are:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/us-troops-mosul-base/index.html

http://time.com/4485212/iraq-mosul-isis-baghdadi-united-nations/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37353081

The estimates they provide include:

1. Could began next month (October)
2. There are 3,000 to 4,5000 ISIS fighters in Mosul.
3. Their forces are estimated at between 3,000 and 9,000
4. “…20,000 to 30,000 Iraqi troops expected to be used in the campaign….”
5. “…could take another two months.”
6. And there is the Pershmerga (Kurdish forces)
7. “…but might not enter central districts to avoid aggravating political sensitivities.”
8. And perhaps Shiite militias (the Hashid Shaabi)
9. The Peshmerga general has 23,000 men under his command

So….40,000 to 60,000 or more Iraqi, Peshmerga and Hashid Shaabi versus 3,000 to 9,000 ISIL fighters.

Our previous posts on the subject, dating back to July, include the following estimates (check the category “Iraq”)

1. The U.S. has 5,000 troops in Iraq.
2. 5,000 or so fighters inside Mosul.
3. There are also ISIL fighters outside of Mosul.
4. The Islamic States has roughly 19,000 to 25,000 fighters, about half in Iraq and half in Syria.
5. Most of the 10,000 to 12,000 in Iraq are concentrated around Mosul, in the Tal Afar area, and elsewhere in Nineveh Province.
6. The Anbar Sunnis can contribute at most 10,000 soldiers to the Mosul effort.
7. IS fighters in Mosul vary from a few thousand to not more than 10,000.
8. Retaking Mosul would require 80,000 men, of whom 15,000 are expect to come from Shiite militias.
9. Might happen in October
10. Campaign needs 20,000 to 30,000 troops
11. A few thousand police and 15,000 local fighters to hold land after assault.
12. Up to 10,000 jihadists are in the city.

I guess that is the best we can do from open sources right now.

 

Nothing new here, just a nice summary article: Retaking Mosul from ISIS

A few notes:

1. As many as 1 1/2 million residents could be affected by the battle (and thee is a link the to the U.N. report on the subject).
   1. There has been 90,000 displaced people since June
   2. One camp houses more than 36,000 people in a camp with tents for around 10,000.
2. We will be providing air support
3. We have 5,000 troops in Iraq
4. There is a slide show: Slideshow

 

Another Iraq article: Airstrikes

A couple of things that caught my attention:

1. 9,400 coalition airstrikes (in Iraq and Syria?) since August 8, 2014
   1. 55 civilians killed by airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, or 1,568 depending on who you wish to believe.
2. 3,800 U.S forces currently in Iraq
   1. not including hundreds who are on temporary duty
   2. not including 560 additional troops approved last month?
   3. Are we going to be over 5,000?

Does anyone know what the current Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is?

IS Weakening Inside Mosul

Key quote: “We still anticipate that somewhere between 5,000 or so fighters are inside Mosul,” Garver said. “We’re still anticipating a tough fight.”

There are also ISIL fighters outside of Mosul. Note that the article states that Mosul is the home of 2 million. This is probably not the case after two years of Islamic State rule. I have seen estimates as low as 500,000.