Category Iraq

Anyhow, this week it appears that the Iraqis have advanced more than halfway to Mosul. The town of Bartella was freed on Thursday: Raise flag in Bartella

They are now only 9 miles from Mosul. When the offensive started, it was more like 20 miles from the East. So progress is being made. Perhaps they will stick to the Peshmerga Brigadier General Barzani’s schedule of getting to Mosul in two weeks. The forces that took Bartella were Iraqi Army Special Forces vice Pesmerga.

By the way, Bartella has been a Christian center for almost 900 years. They had a population of around 30,000 before ISIL took over: Bartella

Retired Major General “Spider” Marks was on CNN this morning. He did not buy into the estimate of Mosul being taken in two-three months.

I suspect the duration will be driven by three or four factors:

1. How serious of a fight ISIL puts up in the areas in front of and around Mosul. I don’t think they will, as this is where they are going to get unfavorable exchanges and take considerable losses. So far it does not seem like they are putting up that serious of resistance.
2. How many people they decide to leave behind in Mosul. In the Second Battle of Fallujah (2004) the insurgents may have left behind less than a thousand fighters. Don’t have the stats at hand for the other battles. I would be surprised if they leave more.
3. How aggressive the Iraqi Army is. How hard do they work to finish this off. There is probably a trade-off between time and casualties, so there is a reason to take their time. On the other hand, political leaders usually prefer quick victories.
4. What is their level of competence.

OK…..someone published a duration estimate for Mosul: Mosul Estimate

Not sure a Peshmerga Brigadier General is supposed to be providing this information to the press, but I assume it comes from some of their planning.

The main points:

1. “The Battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS could take two months….”
2. “…said it would likely take two weeks for advancing forces to enter the city….”

So, a two-week advance and a six-week mop up. This actually sounds pretty reasonable, so I will avoid any “home before the leaves fall” references.

Lots of other articles on that page on Mosul, so certainly worth perusing.

By the way, this is the Peshmerga Brigadier General, Sidwan Barzani, who also happens to be a nephew of the Kurdish president and a telecommunications millionaire: Millionaire commander protects Kurdish capital

 

 

Washington Post article: kurds-pause-in-mosul-offensive-say-iraqi-army-will-advance

I gather there is some agreement negotiated in advance as to who is going to move into Mosul and who is not.

The Iraq Army’s 9th Division is reported on the outskirts of the town of al-Hamdaniyah (also known at Bakhdida), south of Mosul. This town is some 51 kilometers (32 miles) southeast of Mosul. Interesting place: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakhdida

The Federal Police reached the village of al–Houd, east of Mosul.

The Kurdish Peshmerga (operating to the east of Mosul) say they pushed the front line back 8 kilometers (5 miles). Their front line is now 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Mosul.

The most interesting paragraph in the article: “Turkey says the troops are training Iraqi fighters to help retake Mosul, and that they are there with the permission of the Iraqi government. Baghdad denies it granted permission and has ordered the Turks to withdraw — a call Ankara has ignored”

 

Day 2: One news channel last night claimed that the clearing of the city could take up to six months. That seemed excessive.

Basically, with ISIL being outnumbered and not having any real armored forces or artillery, they really have no way to contest the ground outside of Mosul. Like most of these other operations, I suspect that getting to and isolating the city won’t take that long (maybe a week or two). I also suspect that the majority of the ISIL fighters will withdraw and they will leave a holding force in Mosul. This is how these fights have happened several times before. Then there is a city-clearing operation, which is basically a mop-up operation. This could drag on for a while, depending on how aggressively it is pushed. The Second Battle of Fallujah in late 2004, primarily done by U.S. Army and Marines, took about six weeks. The Second Battle of Tikrit in 2015 also took around six weeks. The Battle of Ramadi in 2015-2016 took over ten weeks. The latest Battle of Fallujah in 2016 lasted about five weeks. Granted Mosul is bigger, but I can’t envision it will be that different. How many fighters is ISIL going to sacrifice to a lost cause?

Anyhow, article de jure on the war: Mosul offensive

I gather it is day 1 of the Battle for Mosul. A CNN article on the subject: Mosul operation begins

A couple of things that caught my eye:

1. CNN reporter witnessed an advance of “…about 6 kilometers towards the city, with sporadic fighting erupting as they encountered pockets of ISIS fighters”
2. “But on the whole, he said, Peshmerga commanders felt they were encountering less resistance than they had expected.”

The rest is material that has sort of already been reported.

Also, on MSNBC their reporter in Irbil was stating that the Kurdish Peshmerga were “within striking distance” of Mosul, but I believe they already started pretty close to Mosul to begin with.

 

It has started, or at least they have announced they have started: Iraq announces start of offensive to retake Mosul

Would not be surprised if it was underway before they announced it. I suspect it will take longer than three days. We shall see if it will take longer than three weeks. I am assuming at this point, that it will be successful.

Of course, success does not mean peace, but it is definitely an improvement.

Looks like we are dropping leaflets over Mosul: Iraq drops leaflets over Mosul ahead of battle

Does this mean we are days away from starting the offensive?

 

The Economist article on the Battle for Mosul: Imminent offensive hopes to end the jihadists reign of terror

Nothing earthshaking here but:

1. “All but two if IS’s founding fathers are believed to have been killed…”
2.  “‘It will be a military walk in the park’ says an Iraqi security official” (the rest of the article doesn’t really buy into that).

Also a Voice of America article on Mosul: Plans take shape for Iraqi assault on Mosul

An interesting tid-bit: “Twelve brigades of Iraq forces, each made up of 800 to 1,600 troops, are preparing for the assault.”

 

Anyhow, the subject of Mosul briefly came up in the presidential debate last night.