Category Historical Analysis Annual Conference

Here is a review of the book Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century by Jim Storr: #WavellReviews “Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century” by Jim Storr » Wavell Room

Jim Storr was a speaker at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) and his presentation on “Weaponizing Historical Analysis: A Case Study of the Introduction of HA into Doctrine” was well received.

I have not read the book, but note in the review: “Ultimately, the lack of real military science and study (something Storr is also keen to highlight) means we are stuck with the sources we have.”

Amazon link to book: Amazon.com: Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century: 9781912440320: Storr, Jim: Books

Jim Storr is the author of several other books, 1) King Arthur’s Wars, 2) The Human Face of War, 3) The Hall of Mirrors, 4) Battlegroup!, and 5) Something Rotten: Amazon.com: Jim Storr: Books, Biography, Blog, Audiobooks, Kindle

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is done. It ran from 27-29 September of last week. Planning has started for the second one.

I do want to thank all the people who took their time to come and present. We did have 30 presentations by 22 speakers and two good group discussions. We did follow the schedule: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Only two presentations were not done: Artillery Suppression and Urban Warfare on Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room.  Maybe next year.

I do want to thank all the people who helped me with the conference: Shawn Woodford, Roger Kaplan, Stiles Peabody, Joe Follansbee and especially the hard-working multi-talented Jay Karamales. Also, would like to thank Brandon Barr and the staff of Intelligent Office for their gracious support.

We will be hosting the second HAAC sometime in October 2023, either 3-5 October, 10-12 October, or 17-19 October. Have not settled on a date yet. October 9 is a U.S. federal holiday, so debating if we should schedule the conference just before the three-day weekend, just after it, or a week after it. I am already building the schedule for 2023, so looking for presentations for next year.

We did record most of the presentations. Because of other work, it may take me a few weeks before I can review them and make a decision on their disposition. Nothing will be published without the permission of the participants.

We are talking about two conferences in 2024, one in the United Kingdom.

 

It is open invitation. A payment to Paypal reserves a seat or you can show up at the door.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The background of the presenters is here: Summation of Who’s Who at HAAC (revised) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. This is across the street by Tysons Corner shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit for Tysons Corner from 495 (the Beltway). It is on the third floor of the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Free parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We can accept and register attendees at the door on the morning of the conference. Just trying to get everyone to pay ahead of time, as I really don’t want a line at the door in the morning.

Look forward to seeing you all there.

It is open invitation. A payment to Paypal reserves a seat or you can show up at the door.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The background of the presenters is here: Summation of Who’s Who at HAAC (revised) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. This is across the street by Tysons Corner shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit for Tysons Corner from 495 (the Beltway). It is on the third floor of the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Free parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We can accept and register attendees at the door on the morning of the conference. Just trying to get everyone to pay ahead of time, as I really don’t want a line at the door in the morning.

Look forward to seeing you all there.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The background of the presenters is here: Summation of Who’s Who at HAAC (revised) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. This is across the street by Tysons Corner shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit for Tysons Corner from 495 (the Beltway). It is on the third floor of the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Free parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We can accept and register attendees at the door on the morning of the conference. Just trying to get everyone to pay ahead of time, as I really don’t want a line at the door in the morning.

Look forward to seeing you all there.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The background of the presenters is here: Summation of Who’s Who at HAAC (revised) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. This is across the street by Tysons Corner shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit for Tysons Corner from 495 (the Beltway). It is on the third floor of the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Free parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We can accept and register attendees at the door on the morning of the conference. Just trying to get everyone to pay ahead of time, as I really don’t want a line at the door in the morning.

Look forward to seeing you all there.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts in one week on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The background of the presenters is here: Summation of Who’s Who at HAAC (revised) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit for Tysons Corner from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. I really think that is better than everyone standing in line of Tuesday morning while we collect payments for the conference. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

The last time anything similar was held was over two decades ago: The Third Special Conference on Historical Data Analysis (SCOHDA III) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Look forward to seeing you all there.

 

Latest update to the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 32 presentations scheduled by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

We are looking to add to presentations on Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at. We have set up two group discussions: 1) Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?, and 2) Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022. I would prefer a presentation on these subjects, but I do think they need to be addressed regardless.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. I really think that is better than everyone standing in line of Tuesday morning while we collect payment for the conference. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.

We are also now set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We do have six virtual presentations and we are set up for virtual attendees. To date, we have one person who will be attending the first day as a virtual attendee. We do have the option to record the presentations. I am not sure this is something we should do, but open to debating this. It does tend to suppress discussion.

 

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 16 September 2022

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)             Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                      Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames                     Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual

1500 – 1600    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History                                                    Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)

1600 – 1700     Weaponizing Historical Analysis: A Case Study of the Introduction of HA into Doctrine                              Jim Storr

1700 – 1800    TND’s Theory of Combat                  Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                             Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Group Discussion: Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?

1400 – 1500    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons               Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1500 – 1600    Contentious Issues in Syria:  the Alawi Religion, their Political Struggles, Chemical Warfare in Syria and a Hypothesized Religicide of the Alawis                                            Jennifer Schlacht, M.A.

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                       Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                        Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1400 – 1500    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    open

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500    Open

1500 – 1600    Midway and the Aleutians            Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1600 – 1700    Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45

            Daniel Horvath – virtual

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?                                                                Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique   

William Sayers – virtual

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500    Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program

                                                                                    LtC. Adam. L. Taliaferro

1500 – 1600    Artillery Suppression: New Analysis of Core Data – virtual

                                    Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes)

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                      Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943                                                                            Eugene Matyukhin

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                                    Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1400 – 1500    Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion                                 Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual

1500 – 1600    Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020

                                                                               Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022

 

Just searching around the internet on definitions of what historical analysis is and stumbled across this: /tardir/tiffs/a377305.tiff (dtic.mil). 

This Historical Data Analysis conference (SCOHDA IIII) was hosted by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) at Fort Belvoir. This conference occurred in March 2000. Previous conferences had occurred in 1989 and 1995. I had never heard of these conferences, although I was currently working on the Capture Rate Studies for CAA at that time and knew a number of the people involved. One speaker at that conference is also speaking at our Historical Analysis conference the week after next.

There were 14 presentations and 26 attendees. The 14 presentations are listed on page 9 (electronic page 16) and are:

1. The Application of Historical Analysis (John Harding)
2. The Simple Battlegroup (SIMBAT) Model (Paul Glover)
3. The Influence of Nationality Factors on Force Effectiveness (David Rowland)
4. Historical Analysis of Operations-Other-Than-War (Nigel Poole)
5. Stochastic Analysis of Resources for Deployments and Excursions (Touggy
   Orgeron)
6. Historical Ammunition Rates (Robert Helmbold)
7. Data Used to Support the Combat Simulation of Desert Storm (Jeff Appleget)
8. Historical Analysis of Crisis Feasibility (Alistair Morley)
9. Public Opinion and Casualty Levels (David Rowland)
10. UK Historical Data Analysis of Air Warfare (Andrew Hossack)
11. Trends in Land Combat (Robert Helmbold)
12. Findings from Developmental Tests – An Information Source for Warfighters
    (Richard Cozby)
13. The Battle of the Atlantic -Giant Database and Workshop: Opportunities
    for Creative Synergy (Jock Gardner)
14. Quantification of the Battle of Kursk (Walter Bauman)

There are abstracts of these presentations on pages 10-23.

I gather there has never been a subsequent such conference (a SCOHDA IV).

This is very similar to our Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in both style and content. They only held it every 5 or 6 years and have not held it since 2000. 

The schedule for our conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 15 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).