Category Historical Analysis Annual Conference

This June and July there are three conferences occurring that you should be aware of:

First is MORS 90th Symposium from 13 – 16 June at Quantico, Virginia: https://www.mors.org/

Next is ISMOR from 19 – 21 July at Royal Holloway University in London: http://ismor.com/

Finally, there is Connections on 26 – 29 July at IDA in Alexandria, VA.: https://connections-wargaming.com/

Finally, when the weather is cooler and DC is being embraced by the glorious fall weather, there is HAAC on 27-29 September in Tysons Corner, VA.: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Schedule is here: Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 6 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The Historical Analysis Annual Conferences (HAAC) are intended to be self-supporting and to have a life and longevity unrelated to me or The Dupuy Institute. It is my intention to establish an elected board of 7 to 9 members at the end of first conference in 27-29 September to run the future conferences. This is intended to be a Historical Analysis Annual Conference, not a Dupuy Institute Historical Analysis Annual Conference.

The main conference room (the appropriately named Pike and Gallows Conference Center) has a capacity of 69 and comfortably seats 40 or more. The rental cost for this conference room is $6,000 for the three days. This was the basis for original pricing for attendance to the conference of $150 (40 x $150 = $6,000). The pricing of the conference was intended to be as low as possible but still cover expenses.

Each subsequent conference room costs $2,000 and seats 30 or more people. I have reserved one other conference room and have the option to reserve two more. 

The upper limit of the attendance appears to be around 200 people. Having never done this before, we do not know if we will have 40 people or more than 200 attendees.

So, at this point I need to get people to start committing to attend and the only clear way to determine this is to collect the attendance fee of $150 from everyone. So please, when you have a moment, if you plan on attending, please make payments to our paypal account SRichTDI@aol.com. 

To summarize: 

1. Conference fee = $150
2. Attendance for one day = $60
3. Presenters get a $60 discount.
4. Student discounted price = $20 for a day.
5. The Dupuy Institute discount = free
   1. Former employees of TDI/TNDA/DMSI/HERO
   2. Former members of the board of TDI

We are set up to handle virtual attendees. They still need to pay the fee to reserve a slot. We do expect to have two virtual presenters (Helmbold and Fitzpatrick). We do have the option to record the conference but need to make some arrangements to do so. Not sure if this is something people are interested in, or would everyone prefer to comment, question, and discuss issues off camera? Let me know.

 

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is: Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 6 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

We do have 30 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 30 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 20 April 2022

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                             Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1400 – 1500    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1600 – 1700

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                                Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                                                            Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943

                                                                                    Eugene Matyukhin

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                                    Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1400 – 1500    Donbas Campaign 2014-2015                       LtC.  Amos Fox

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

 

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

 

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 29 presentations scheduled by 19 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

 

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 14 April 2022

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)              Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                      Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                     Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

                                                                               Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

                                                                                  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                                                                          Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

                                                                                 Dr. Michael Spagat (RHUL)

1400 – 1500    Infantry Support Weapon              Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

                                                                       Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                       Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

                                                                       Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                       Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                       Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

                                                                      Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                         LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)               Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                              Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                        Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200    The Decline of War Since 1950        

                                                                       Dr. Michael Spagat (RHUL)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Donbas Campaign 2014-2015            Reserved          

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700    Midway and the Aleutians   Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

 

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 27 presentations scheduled by 18 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine 2022. Looking for volunteers for that, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 5 April 2022

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                                Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1000 – 1100    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                                    Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200    Donbas Campaign 2014-2015                       (Reserved)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 25 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 20 March 2022

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1400 – 1500    Reserved                                              Reserved

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 
Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1000 – 1100   

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

 

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Researching Operations

This post is a repeat of our post on 9 March 2022, slightly updated.

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

This is first time we have tried such an effort, and hopefully it will be well enough received that it will become an annual (or even semi-annual) event. I was impressed with the level of support I received last fall when I first emailed people about this. I am very thankful for all the people who have volunteered to do presentations. We do have 25 presentations already lined up.

The cost of the conference is discussed in the link below. It is $150 for the whole three days, $60 for a day, $20 for “real” students. Presenters get a $60 discount. You have to cover your travel, hotel, meals and bar bill. Sorry.

Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Payment will be through Paypal. The account is our regular book ordering account of SRichTDI@aol.com. See: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications

Area hotels are listed in the link below. A couple are within walking distance. I have not put together a block of rooms at any hotel but can do so if people are interested. I suspect a lot of people attending the conference do live in the DC area.

Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The call for presentations is here: 

Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

If you are interested in presenting, just email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com. We have reserved two conference rooms and currently have 26 presentations scheduled by 17 presenters. We have slots for at least 8 more. If we get a lot more quality presentations, then I will expand our conference area, instead of turning people way. I will post a revised schedule on this blog tomorrow.

This post is a repeat of our post on 8 March 2022.

Just a reminder, we are hosting the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

Purpose:

To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.

It is built in part upon the work done by the HERO (Historical Evaluation Research Organization), TNDA (Trevor N. Dupuy and Associates), DMSI (Data Memory Systems Inc.), TMCI (The Military Conflict Institute), TDI (The Dupuy Institute) and elements of the Cornwallis Group. Similar in concept to the TMCI conferences.

First Conference:

Will be held 27-29 September 2022 at Tysons Corner, Virginia, near Washington, DC. It is in honor of the 60^th anniversary of the Trevor N. Dupuy founded organizations and the 30^th anniversary of The Dupuy Institute.

It is expected that the conference will include a wide range of attendees and presenters from private industry, academia, the U.S. government, the UK operational research and historical analysis community, and other interested parties.

The first day (Tuesday) of the conference with be focused on Analysis of Conventional Warfare, the second day (Wednesday) on Analysis of Unconventional Warfare and the third day (Thursday) with include Other Analysis of Warfare. Each presentation will be a maximum of 45 minutes with at least 15 minutes set aside for questions and discussion.

If demand is high enough, the conference will be broken into working groups as required.

Historical Analysis:

There is no clear definition as to what historical analysis consists of. For the purposes of this conference, it is that analysis of history that is focused on military affairs and is usually quantitative in approach and based upon a large number of cases (as opposed to being a case study). Historical Analysis is considered a proper subdiscipline of UK Operational Research. It is not considered part of Operations Research in the United States.

The UK Dstl defines historical analysis as “The use of mathematical, statistical, qualitative and other forms of analysis to understand historical engagements, operations, campaigns and conflicts for the purpose of providing impartial analysis and sensitive decision support to policy makers.”

The key elements of what The Dupuy Institute looks for in historical analysis is that it is 1) based upon history, with a strong bias towards primary sources (i.e. unit records), 2) it is a based upon a representative sample of cases, not just a case study of one or two cases, 3) it is analytical in approach, 4) it is using past real-world experience for analyzing and addressing a problem of today. Historical analysis is simply the analysis of real-world experiences.

There are people who are doing surveys of historical operations, basically doing multiple case studies to examine trends and patterns. While these are not based upon the large databases that The Dupuy Institute favors, these are efforts worth examining and such efforts will also be explored at our conferences.

Costs:

Cost of attendance will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Call for Presentations:

We are making a call for papers and presentations at that time. We have already set up a preliminary list of presenters.

Long-term Goal:

The long-term goal is a create a series of periodic conferences for the purposes of presenting, examining and encouraging historical analysis of military affairs across a wide-range of issues.

For questions, suggestions, comments, or to volunteer for presentations, please contact:

Christopher A. Lawrence

The Dupuy Institute

(703) 289-0007

LawrenceTDI@aol.com

 

 

P.S. In subsequent posts I will be posting the rates for the conference, the list of nearby hotels, and a preliminary list of presenters.

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 25 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 25 February 2022

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

1400 – 1500    Reserved                                              Reserved

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1000 – 1100   

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

 

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Researching Operations

The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

This is first time we have tried such an effort, and hopefully it will be well enough received that it will become an annual (or even semi-annual) event. I was impressed with the level of support I received last fall when I first emailed people about this. I am very thankful for all the people who have volunteered to do presentations. We do have 25 presentations already lined up.

The cost of the conference is discussed in the link below. It is $150 for the whole three days, $60 for a day, $20 for “real” students. Presenters get a $60 discount. You have to cover your travel, hotel, meals and bar bill. Sorry.

Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Payment will be through Paypal. The account is our regular book ordering account of SRichTDI@aol.com. See: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications

Area hotels are listed in the link below. A couple are within walking distance. I have not put together a block of rooms at any hotel but can do so if people are interested. I suspect a lot of people attending the conference do live in the DC area.

Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The call for presentations is here: 

Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

If you are interested in presenting, just email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com. We have reserved two conference rooms and currently have 25 presentations scheduled by 16 presenters. We have slots for at least 9 more. If we get a lot more quality presentations, then I will expand our conference area, instead of turning people way. I will post a revised schedule on this blog tomorrow.