Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 36 presentations scheduled by 25 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.
If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.
We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.
In the meantime, we have set up two potential group discussions: 1) Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?, and 2) Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022. I would prefer a presentation on these subjects, but I do think they need to addressed regardless.
The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road.
Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. I really think that is better than everyone standing in line of Tuesday morning while we collect payment for the conference. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.
We now have five virtual presentations, and we are set up for virtual attendees. To date we have not had anyone commit to being a virtual attendee.
Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Updated: 9 August 2022
Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks (new) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
0930 – 1030 Studying Combat (old) Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)
1030 – 1130 Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1130 – 1230 How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data
Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)
1230 – 1400 Lunch
1400 – 1500 Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data
Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1500 – 1600 How Important are Superior Numbers?
Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual
1600 – 1700 Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History
Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)
1700 – 1800 TND’s Theory of Combat Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos
Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare
0900 – 1000 Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1000 – 1100 History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934 Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1100 – 1200 Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Group Discussion: Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?
1400 – 1500 Close Combat Overmatch Weapons Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1500 – 1600 open
1600 – 1700 The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.
Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs
Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000 The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History
Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)
1000 – 1100 Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons
Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)
1100 – 1200 HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare
Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making Matt Tompkins
1400 – 1500 Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions
Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)
1500 – 1600 The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM
Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1600 – 1700 The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Evening: Happy hour – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin
Schedule: Einstein Conference Room
Day 1: Poster and Book Room
Opened at 0800
Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare
1400 – 1500 Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45
Daniel Horvath – virtual
1500 – 1600 Midway and the Aleutians Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)
1600 – 1700 Simulation-Based Historical Analysis: a France 1940 Concept
Timothy J. Smith, ONI
Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 1000 A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?
Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1000 – 1100 The Combat Assessment Technique William Sayers
1100 – 1200 Machine Learning the Lessons of History Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept
LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD
1400 – 1500 Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program
LtC. Adam. L. Taliaferro
1500 – 1600 Artillery Suppression: New Analysis of Core Data – virtual
Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes)
1600 – 1700 Urban Warfare (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?
Day 3: Researching Operations
0900 – 1000 The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918 Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1000 – 1100 Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943
Eugene Matyukhin
1100 – 1200 The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44
Dr. Richard Harrison
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Decline of War Since 1950
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1400 – 1500 Donbas Campaign 2014-2015
Amos Fox (PhD candidate, University of Reading)
1500 – 1600 Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020
Dr. Alexander Kotts (ARL)
1600 – 1700 Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion
Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual
1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022
Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling
Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare
Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis
Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis
