A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map
It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.
There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail. I also don’t report on all the artillery shelling and missile strikes.
I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. It seems to be hanging on for far longer than I expected. Not sure why. I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.
This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or is it the two cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) in the Donetsk province?
Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson.
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are not many changes today. A tweet we made yesterday on BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) has gotten attention. We will be posting it up the blog later today. See: https://twitter.com/dupuyinstitute/status/1513243631066439691
This daily repeated blog post is at around 3,200 words. Debating if I should trim it down and is so, by how much.
We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.
1. Kiev – secure
2. Odessa – secure
3. Kharkov
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.
There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.
According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3rd of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army. There are reports of Russian reinforcements east of Kharkov, an eight-mile column.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.
Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.
Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692).
Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.
Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk, just had its rail station hit on 9 April with over 50 civilians killed.
It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day forty-one of the siege. It is clear that Ukraine is making an effort to hang on there. The defenders appear to have broken up into 2 or 3 pockets inside the city. There have been helicopters resupplying. Not sure what forces Ukraine still has there (besides parts of the Azov Regiment). I am still not sure how much longer they can hold out.
The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed, as has also the head of DPR (Donets People’s Republic). The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days.
It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs. SecDef Lloyd Austin acknowledged on 8 April that the U.S. is providing intelligence to Ukrainian forces. That was obvious from the beginning. Some of the intelligence provided is “near real time.” See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-giving-intel-to-ukraine-for-operations-in-donbas-defense-secretary-says/ar-AAVYrNp?ocid=BingNewsSearch
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.There are reports of Ukrainian activity in area in the last couple of days. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means that Odessa is safe from overland attack.
Weather: Kharkov at 3 PM: 67 degrees (19 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 44 degrees (7 Celsius). Precipitation forecast for today and the next three days.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.
Slovakia has now donated S-300 air defense missiles to Ukraine. According to Wikipedia, Slovakia had only one battery with up to 45 missiles. In exchange, the U.S. is deploying some Patriots to Slovakia (not that it is under attack). At the start of the war Ukraine had about 100 batteries of S-300s with as many as 300 launchers. They have lost at least 21 launchers according to video evidence. NATO members Bulgaria (4 launchers) and Greece (32 launchers, 175 missiles) also have S-300s.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From Where? What will be their training? How long will it take?
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus.
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 82.03 to a dollar as of 9:12 AM EST. This is “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $98.96 as of 9:14 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).
The value of the ruble seems to have stabilized at 82 per dollar. The oil prices continue to slowly drop. Lower oil prices due undercut the Russian government budget.
It has been estimated by the World Bank that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by an estimated 45.1% this year (which is a surprising precise estimate in the middle of a war).
Casualties: The UN is reporting on 10 April 1,793 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. A third prisoner exchange has just been announced that released 12 Ukrainian soldiers and 14 civilians. The number of Russians released has not been provided. BBC Russian Service as of 5 April has counted 1,083 confirmed killed, of which 217 are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels and 31 majors. This is certainly an undercount. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.
U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).
“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135 and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
0900, 30 March
Tanks: 336
AFVs: 239
IFVs: 320
APCs: 79
Jet aircraft: 15
Helicopters: 32
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
0900, 30 March
Tanks: 79
AFVs: 62
IFVs: 60
APCs: 29
Jet aircraft: 10
Helicopters: 1
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,793 + 767 = 5,211). It may be more like 10,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported.
Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March.
The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.
Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).
There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down.
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:
- Ukraine ceases military action,
- Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
- Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
- Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.
It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy. The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.
Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. They were saying up to 410 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel, with 150 to 300 in a mass grave in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. The reported body count from Bucha so far is 164.
There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.
Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.
The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 11 April, but I see no changes for the last two days.
