Category Eastern Europe

The Attack on Kharkov – part 5 of the First Phase of the War discussion

Christopher A. Lawrence
May 11, 2022

This is the fifth in a series of extended posts examining the First Phase of this war. The first post is here: The Assault on Kiev – part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Second post is here: The Assault on Kherson – part 2 of the First Phase of the War discussion | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The third post is here: The Attack on Mariupol – part 3 of the First Phase of the War discussion | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The fourth post is here: The Advance in the Northeast – part 4 of the First Phase of the War discussion | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Kharkov:

Kharkov (pop. 1,433,886) in my mind is extremely important to this entire war. Not only is it the second largest city in Ukraine, but it is largest Russian speaking majority city in Russia. Its unwillingness to join with Lugansk and Donetsk in revolting against the new Ukranian government in 2014 was significant then. A sniper did try to assassinate the mayor of Kharkov in April 2014, shooting him in the back and partly crippling him for life. He was a supporter of the Russian-favoring over-thrown Ukrainian President Yanukovich. Yet he opposed the Russian separatists in Kharkov. He died of Coronavirus in 2021 while still mayor.

The city’s willingness to defend itself now is also significant. It is right next to Russia, just south of Belgorod and the area of the Battle of Kursk. It was fought over four times during World War Two, once in 1941 and three times in 1943. It was the largest Russian city fought over in World War II and was used in our urban warfare studies. See: U-1, U-2 and U-3, Measuring the Effects of Combat in Cities, Phase I, II and III: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. Also see Chapter 16: Urban Legends and Chapter 17: The Use of Case Studies in War by Numbers. It is a big sprawling city, 24.3 kilometers from north to south and 25.2 kilometers from west to east.

The Attack on Kharkov:

Being only 19 miles south of the border, Kharkov (Kharkiv in Ukrainian) came under attack early in the campaign from forces advancing from Belgorod. They encountered resistance on the first day, slowing down their advance. They did shell the city the first day, 24 February 2022.

On the second day, the Russian advance had reached northern suburbs of the city, the village of Tsyrkuny. There the Ukrainian army put up a fight. See video (2:07): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDIQf10kHzY. Not the best weather for operations.

Heavy fighting continued outside the city the following day with Russian forces entering the city on the morning of the 27th. By the end of the day they were thrown back. A video of some of the fighting is here (1:59): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UreR-qYgZwU and here (2:46): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndTla7HQiFw

It is not sure what the strength was of the attacking Russian forces, but they did not seem significant. Not sure of the strength of the defenders either. It does seem like, as in the case of number of the other Russian advances, that they led into these suburban and urban areas with mobile forces with limited infantry support. The results were as expected.

On 27 February, the Russian forces were clearly repelled from Kharkov. It came under heavy artillery fire on the 28th. It is during these bombardments against the Kharkiv Tractor Plant, Moskovskyi district and Shevchenkivskyi district that cluster munitions were used (no need to use the word “alleged,” they clearly leave behind identifiable fragments).

This kind of became the norm from the subsequent month, with Russian forces operating just outside of the city, regularly bringing it under artillery fire. The governor of Kharkov said that between 24 February and 14 April, at least 503 civilians had been killed in the Kharkov region. Between 24 February to 28 April, 606 civilians were reported killed in the Kharkov region, according to the National Police. One Algerian student was reported killed by a sniper on 28 February, but I gather most civilians were killed due to artillery, missile and air strikes.

This was a strange operation, so it appears that the Russians never arrived with significant forces to take the city and did not have the forces to surround the city. Part of the reason may have been that Kharkov was better defended than Chernigov, Sumy, Kherson, Melitopol, etc. The Russians forces took over three days before they could advance into the city, and they never really seriously attempted to surround it. It is a case where the defenders not only held the city, but they held the countryside on both sides.

Military casualties are only hinted at with a report on 7 March 209 people had been killed, including 133 civilians, and 443 people has been wounded, including 319 civilians. This implies military deaths of 76 killed and 124 wounded, a 1.63-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio. Russian losses are not known, although it no reason to believe they were higher than Ukrainian losses. Unlike other operations and areas, there are no claims of BTGs getting destroyed, heavy fighting after the 27th of February, or anything similar. For a city this important, not that much happened.

Were the Russians trying to take too much with too little?

This does go to the question of the entire initial Russian operational forces. They sent significant forces to Kiev, a force of 3 to 6 BTGs to Chernigov and eventually to Kiev, forces to surround Sumy and forces to march through Konotop towards Kiev. This pretty much grabbed most of the northeastern Ukraine. Yet, they did not send significant forces to take, threaten, or surround Kharkov. Kharkov, for all practical purposes, anchored the entire northern flank of the Ukrainian Army holding the areas of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. A significant Russia armed force driving between Kharkov and Okyturka, a front over 60 miles wide (100 kilometers), could have potentially enveloped the city from the north. Instead 20,000 to 30,000 forces were encamped outside of Kiev, other forces that may have numbered more than 10,000 were taking the rest of northeast Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kharkov was holding out, and anchoring the entire line from the north. One can see the Russian line running northwest from Kharkov to Bohodukhiv (town of 14,882 which was never taken) to Okhtyrka (discussed in the last post). This was mostly open country. A concentrated force of 30,000 pushing in that area would have been hard to stop and probably could have surrounded Kharkov. That would have started a process that could have put Izium, then Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in danger. Instead, tens of thousands of Russian troops were stalled out in the marsh lands to the north of Kiev while thousands more were grabbing open ground in the rest of northeast Ukraine, while Kharkov held firm.

It does appear that the original Russian plan was to march in columns of troops from everywhere to everywhere, strongly indicating that they really did not expect any real resistance. If that was true, then their planned operations makes sense. As that was not the case, then their plan appears to make no sense. A discussion of the Russian thinking behind this is hard to address without more research, including interviews of the participants and decision makers.

Eastern Europe Russia War by Numbers

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 77 (ground actions)

Christopher A. Lawrence
May 11, 2022

Things are starting to heat up. Continued Ukrainian advances from Kharkov, Russian advances towards Lyman and Barvinkove and heavier fighting around Kherson.

Week eleven of the war. Clear weather until Saturday, then rain off and on for the next week. The major action continues to be a Ukrainian offensive to the north and east of Kharkov that took a half dozen villages in the last week, claimed four more villages on 9 May, and now claimed Ternova, on the Russian border. They clearly continue make progress around Kharkov, see map below. Not sure if this is because they have put together a powerful offensive force, the Russian morale is collapsing, or because the Russians have thinned this out to mass elsewhere for an offensive. Suspect the latter, but many other posting analysts seem to think it is because the Russian morale is collapsing.

Map showing front lines on 27 April and 11 May (cribbed from @War_Mapper):

Around Izium, Russia took one village near Lyman on 8 May and on 9 May took Velyka Komyshuvahka. Another map cribbed from @War_Mapper):

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics.

Still waiting for Russia to start its main offensive in earnest. It does appear that they thinned their forces around Kharkov and concentrated everything around Izium. They did erect a pontoon bridge across the Siversky Donets River near Bilohorivka (pop. 828), where an airstrike on 7 May killed around 60 civilians. Bilohorivka is due west of Sievierodonsk, setting up for a local envelopment of it and Lysyschansk. It was taken down by the Ukrainians on 9 May.

The real objective here seems to be the cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135), Lysychansk (pop. 95,031), Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) and Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084) in the Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. These are all very close to each other. Is Russia going to limit themselves to cleaning up the rest of the areas claimed by the LPR and DPR (and then try to negotiate a cease fire), or are they going to strike towards other areas, like Kharkov and Dnipro?

Russia controls the most of isolated Mariupol, with a group of over a thousand Ukrainians soldiers holding out in a steel mill. Russia renewed assaults on the steel mill the last couple of days. Russian troops are now inside the compound and the fighting continues. The defenders are not going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. They are supposed to have 20 BTGs in Russia.

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April.

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov – secure?

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure. See: Transnistria and the invasion of Odessa | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Video from near the famous Snake Island (just off the Romanian/Ukranian border): Shocking video shows Ukrainian drone destroying 2 Russian patrol boats.

There were claims that the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov (3,620 tons) has been damaged or sunk on 6 May by Ukrainian Neptune missiles. This is not the case. A Serna-class landing craft (60 tons) was damaged or sunk on 6 May by a Bayraktar TB2 drone.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. It is not yet out of artillery range, but probably will be soon as the Ukrainian army continues pushing the Russian army away from Kharkov. They captured the village last week of Molodova and on 9 May claimed to have re-taken the small villages of Verhknyi Saltiv, Zamulivka, Bayrak and Rubizhne (not the same place as Rubizhne in Donetsk province) and have now claimed Ternova, on the Russian border, along with Pytomnyk and Lyptsi.

It does appear that Russia has thinned out its forces in this area and Ukraine is taking advantage of that. They are still fighting over a front of over 900 kilometers or 600 miles (this is a rough eyeball guess; I have not measured it exactly as it does twist and turn). Russia supposedly only has 92 BTGs deployed in Ukraine, so if one is concentrating forces around Izium, still has a couple BTGs tied down in Mariupol, still has some holding Kherson, the area NE of Kherson, Melitopol and surrounding areas, etc., then this does not leave a whole lot for the Kharkov area. This is a problem Russia has warring with a defender who is roughly equal in deployed manpower.

There was an explosion on 3 May in the Belgorod region at Tomorovka (map in my Kursk book). A rail bridge also went down near Kursk. The provincial governor said it was sabotage. On 26 April an ammo depot near Belgorod, Russia was attacked. There was also a major fire also reported at an oil storage facility this last week in the Bryansk region near the border. There was a report this weekend of a Ukrainian aircraft “shelling” a village of Zhecha in the Bryansk Region in Russia.

The Russians continued to expand southward from Izium, which is listed here as it is in the Kharkov Province even though their advance is heading south. They have captured the town of Zavody and the NE outskirts of Velyka Komyshuvakha. The Russians do appear to have been pushing to the southwest towards Barvinkove (pop. 8,110), vice the south or southeast. So it is either a broader encirclement of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, or the rumored drive on Dnipro (which I really don’t believe they are going to try). Still, no villages have been reported taken in this area for the last few days. Are they taking a breather before the start of the main offensive?

A video from Sky News from Barvinkove (3:58): Ukraine War: Ukrainian soldiers stand firm in Barvinkove. Trench warfare (2:14)?

The Russians have two options for an encirclement of the Ukrainian areas of Lugansk and Donetsk province. One is the “smaller option” of striking from Kreminna and near Soledar to surround Sieverierodonesk and Lysychansk. The other is a “larger option” to strike from Izium and surround Sloviansk and Kramatorsk also. They may try both. If they are doing that, then I assume options like a renewed assault on Kharkov or a drive towards Dnipro (which is a good distance away) are off the table.

On the other hand, depending on how the Ukrainian offensive develops around Kharkov and if any forces are freed from it, it is possible that some Ukranian forces (i.e. 92nd and 93d Mechanized Brigades) could be turned south towards Izium, greatly complicating the Russian offensive there. Izium is only 60 miles south of Kharkov. According to one newspaper account (Forbes), advancing out of Izium are a dozen of Russia’s “best” BTGs. The Ukrainian forces defending south of Izium include the 4th and 17th Tank Brigades and 95th Air Assault Brigade.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 5 May that they had 1,622 soldiers killed and 6,525 wounded (4.02-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 41% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious. They have been surprisingly diligent about regularly reporting their casualty figures. One wonders if some Russian losses or contractors are being included in these figures. Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) is reported as of 5 April to have had 500-600 killed out of an estimated force of 14,000. This is 21% casualties, assuming a 4-to-1 killed ratio. Don’t know how many of DPR and LPR forces are Russians from Russia as opposed to locals.

Zelensky in an interview on CNN on 17 April said they had 44,000 professional military men in the Donbas.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692) and pushing down from the north from Kreminna and Rubizhne and from the south from Novotoshkivske. Due west of Sievierodonesk Russia did erect a pontoon bridge across the Siversky Donets River near Bilohorivka (pop. 828), where an airstrike on 7 May killed around 60 civilians. This appears to be setting up for a local envelopment of it and Lysyschansk. The Ukrainians took it down on 9 May.

The Russian and LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) have taken Kreminna (pop. 18,417). This village is to the NW of Sievierdonetsk and Lysychansk (pop. 95,031). Videos verified by CNN show Russian forces in central Rubizhne (pop. 56,066) on 20 April. It is to the northwest of Sievierodonetsk. I gather it is still being contested. It does look the Russians are slowly advancing towards Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north, northwest and maybe the west. This metropolitan area has a combined population of around 350,000.

They are reporting advancing to the north of Lyman (pop. 20,469), capturing the town of Zarichne (Ukraine report). Torske (pop. 1,653) is reported as contested, but I gather is still in Ukrainian hands. The Russians did claim to have taken the village of Shandryhove on 8 May. This is the first forward movement on this front we have seen for a week.

The Russians are reported to be advancing to the south of Sievierodonetsk, capturing the town of Novotoshkivske (pop. 2,170) according to a Ukraine report. Popasna (pop. 19,672) is also reported as contested, but it appears that Ukraine is still holding it.

Further south Avdiyivka (31,940) is still in Ukranian hands.

Between the advances south of Izium, near Lyman, at Rubizhne, the pontoon bridge near Bilohorivka and south of Sievierdonetsk, I am guessing that these are preparatory actions before the main Russian offensive.

Borrowed a map from Dr. Michael Mackay @mhmck, which shows the area (I hope he does not mind). The area between Bilohorivka and Popasna threatened with encirclement contain the cities of Sievierdonetsk and Lysychansk and had a population in excess of 350,000:

It does show Poposna under Russian control. Ukraine admitted on 8 May to have withdrawn from it. This may have occurred before 8 May. The map is showing Poposna as taken on 7 May.

Slovyansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk. It had its rail station hit on 9 April with over 50 civilians killed.

To the southwest of this fight, the Ukrainians have retaken Maryinka (pop. 9,256) on 19 April, which had been taken by the DPR on 17 March. There is still fighting “in the direction of” (but not at?) Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Trudoliubivka, on the route to Zaporizhzhia.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day seventy-one of the siege! The Alamo held out for 13 days. The Germans surrounded in Stalingrad held out for 72 days. Over this last week, apparently all the civilians (over 300) have been evacuated from the encircled Azovstal steel mill. Most of the steel mill, which covers 4 square miles and includes a network of tunnels, is under Ukrainian control. A thousand or more fighters remain. The commander there reported on 27 April that more than 600 were wounded.

There have been unconfirmed reports of phosphorus bombs and munitions being used in Mariupol, including claims made by the Azov Regiment on 27 April. All claims I have heard have only come from the Azov Regiment, which does maintain its own website.

Major Sergiy Volina, CO 36th Marine Brigade

The failure of the Russians to complete the conquest of Mariupol is probably due to a shortage of good infantry. If you are going to do urban operations, you need infantry. Otherwise, you are going to have to shell everything to oblivion, which appears to be what they are doing. Following video of street fighting in Mariupol was just released by the Azov Regiment (0:58): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6UOYKQ8JD8

According to the DOD on 18 April there are almost a dozen BTGs in Mariupol. As each BTG has about 200 infantry, then 11 x 200 gives us 2,200 infantry. They have already probably had heavy infantry losses though, so could have less than half of those troops available.

The population of the city is down to 100,000 or less. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 10,000 people have been killed. The head of DPR (Donets People’s Republic) has said over 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days.

The U.S. DOD claimed yesterday that 2,000 troops and some Chechen fighters are still in Mariupol and that 10 BTGs are now moving north. Does this portend an offensive south of Sievierdonetsk pushing north in the next few days? They do indicates that some of the BTGs appears to have paused to be refitted, which is not all that surprising.

There is a mass grave being reported outside of Mariupol near the town of Manhush. It looks like around 200 graves have been dug. Another mass grave is also being reported on 23 April. So far, they appear to be graves for hundreds of people, vice thousands. A third mass grave is now reported. There has been no new reports on this for a while.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take back Kherson? My suspicion is that Ukraine is going to launch an operation to try to reclaim Kherson and Kherson Province. Reports are that the fighting is getting heavier there.

Weather: Kharkov at 4 PM: 63 degrees (17 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 45 degrees (7 Celsius). Rain forecasted for Saturday (50%), Tuesday (50%), Wednesday (60%) and Thursday (40%). Does this mean that everyone will have to wait a week or longer before conducting any major operations?

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. Wikipedia was reporting 209,000 in their armed forces and 102,000 paramilitary. They are now reporting their armed forces at 196,600. But, the Azov Regiment that is holding in Mariupol is actually a militia unit. That may be the case from some of the foreign volunteer battalions also. There are some foreign volunteer units that have been there a while, including two Chechen battalions and a Georgian unit. I have yet to any statistics as to how many other foreign volunteers have been deployed, just individual stories.

There also the independent Belarussian Kastus Kalinouski Battalion, which as of 5 March is reported to have 200 members. They were serving in Irpin (near Kiev). It is reported that they have had thousands of volunteers. The deputy commander of the battalion (age 31) was killed on action on 13 March and another member was lost on 24 March in Irpin. This, of course, threatens to bring the war into Belarus at some point.

Outside support for Ukraine is considerable and reported in a separate blog post: Outside Support for Ukraine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). U.S. has just announced another $150 million in aid, including 25,000 155mm artillery rounds. The U.S. is claiming that 89 of the 90 Howitzers they have sent are now in Ukrainian hands.

The U.S. is now admitting that it helped target Russian generals. See: American intel used to kill Russian generals in Ukraine: US officials. This is something we had assumed for a while. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and How Much is U.S. intelligence helping Ukraine? – part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). And then yesterday they admitted that U.S. intel helped with tracking the sunk Russian cruiser Moskva, some we also assumed: Official: US gave intel before Ukraine sank Russian warship. Apparently, they did not provide specific targeting information.

Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the tenth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From where? What will be their training? How long will it take?

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. Russia appears to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war. As it did not happen on Victory Day, then one wonders when this happens. I do not think Russia can win this war without further mobilization.

The Russian Home Front: Latest video from Moscow: (20+) Facebook

The discussion of the home front and the economic situation in Russia is reported in a separate blog post: The Home Fronts during the Russo-Ukranian War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Casualties: Ukraine admitted on 29 April that they have suffered “serious losses” in battles. We take that claim at face value. They also claim that Russian losses are “colossal.” That claim has not been confirmed. Zelensky told CNN on 15 April that Ukrainian Army had lost between 2,500-3,000 troops since the fighting has begun and about 10,000 have been wounded (wounded-to-killed ratio of 4.00- or 3.33-to-1). If Ukrainian military deaths are between 2,500 and 3,000, then I assume Russian military deaths are at least as many. Ukraine is claiming as of 19 April that 20,800 Russian and DPR soldiers have been killed, Russians are claiming as of 16 April that 23,367 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Are both sets of figures similarly inflated?

There has been another prisoner swap of 41 people (29 military and 13 civilians).

The UN is reporting on 9 May at least 3,381 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Of those 1,810 of the deaths are in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk with 111 in territory controlled by Russian separatists.

It is clear that more than 12,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 (Russian Army) + at least 2,000 more (Russian Army) + 3,000 (Ukrainian Army) + 3,381 (Civilians) + 1,622 (DPR) + 600 (LPR) = 11,954). It is probably in excess of 15,000 total deaths depending on Russian military deaths and the real count of civilian losses. The number of deaths of Mariupol are unverified and unknown and could add thousands to these totals.

A more detailed discussion is provided here: Losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov. Yesterday, the U.S. was claiming that the Russians flew 300 sorties over Ukraine in the last 24 hours. It has been pretty consistent reporting of 250-300 sorties a day for quite some time now.

The pilot Major Stepan Tarabalka, age 29, died on 13 March piloting a MiG-29. Some claimed he was the “Ghost of Kiev.” The Ukrainians claim as of 30 April 190 Russian aircraft destroyed, and the “Ghost of Kiev” is credited with 40 kills. The videos evidence has confirmed as of 2 May that 23 Russian jets destroyed.

Somewhat relevant (23 x 8 = 184):

Soviet versus German kill claims at Kursk | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

And don’t have a publication date yet, but the publisher has the manuscript:

Aces at Kursk – Summation | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. On the morning of 16 April in the Lvov region, Ukraine claimed it downed four cruise missiles fired by Su-35s operating from Belarus. Zelensky claimed on 26 April that Russians have fired more than 1,100 missiles at Ukraine. The U.S. DOD claimed on 29 April that more than 1,950 missiles have been fired at Ukraine since the start of the war and they are currently firing about 50 a day.

End of the War: It does look like Russia intends to take and hold onto all of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, and possibly all of Kherson province and four-fifths of Zaporizhzhia province. The capital Zaporizhzhia (pop. 722,713) may not be on their list of areas to take. So, four out of Ukraine’s 24 provinces and Crimea.

Populations of partly or completely occupied areas (2019 estimates):

Donetsk: 4,165,901

Lugansk: 2,151,833

Crimea: 2,033,700 (2001 census)

Zaporizhzhia: 1,705,836

Kherson: 1,037,640

Sevastopol: 509,992 (2021 estimate)

Population of Ukraine (excluding Crimea), 2022 estimate: 41,167,336

What they are willing to later negotiate away to achieve peace or a ceasefire is unknown. What Ukraine is willing to negotiate away is also unknown, although they are now saying the war will continue until all areas are freed. Does that include the LPR, DPR and Crimea? When they are ready to return to talks is unknown. This is beginning to look like an extended war.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. The latest figure (12 April) is that 403 civilians were killed in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. Additional reports from Ukraine have put the body count of civilians found in the towns and villages surround Kiev at 1,222. This has not been independently confirmed. Ukraine has identified ten Russian soldiers wanted for “pre-mediated murder” in Bucha. They are all enlisted from the 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. These are the first charges unveiled of over 8,000 criminal investigations. The U.S. is claiming it has “credible information” of Russians killing Ukrainians in the vicinity of Donetsk who were trying to surrender.

There are also various accusations against the Russian Army Chechen unit operating around Bucha: Brutal Sect of Putin’s Army Accused of Murdering Their Own Comrades.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on Youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

There are also some retribution killings going on: Ukrainian Chief Intelligence Directorate: another traitor of Ukraine found shot.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them. Widespread protests in Armenia this weekend over Nagorno-Karabakh followed by 180 detentions. There were more protests this Sunday and another 237 protesters were detained. On Tuesday (yesterday) another 61 protesters were detained.

Finland and Sweden are seriously discussing joining NATO later this year. They are rumored to be submitting their applications together by 22 May. I assume NATO will welcome them with open arms. It does add an 810-mile (1300 km) border with Russia, but NATO already abuts Russian and Belarussian territory in the Baltic states. The Finnish parliament’s defense committee recommended yesterday to request to join NATO. I gather the polling is showing 76% support for this.

Ukraine was supposed to be on the fast track to join the European Union, which was the issue that started all the turmoil in 2013. But EU member Austria has objected, and now France is saying that it may take years. All EU members must unanimously agree for a country’s membership negotiations to begin. Hate to add another opinion to this debate, but as this issue is what fueled all the conflict over the last nine years, it does seem like they can fast track this for Ukraine. The conflicts include the whole three-month Euromaidan revolt in the dead of winter of 2013-2014 that led to over 100 Ukrainians being killed, many protesters shot in the street by President Yanokovich’s security forces; the seizure of Crimea; the creation of LPR and DPR; the subsequent war; and now this war. Ukraine certainly has paid a much higher cost to join the EU than anyone else ever has. Current polling (Reuters April 5) shows that 91% of the Ukrainians support joining the EU. Perhaps the citizens of France, Germany, Austria and other recalcitrant EU governments can pressure their governments to do the right thing!

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 11 May and shows the front line changing around Kharkov. There are now more blue arrows on map.

Eastern Europe Russia

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 76 (ground actions)

Things remain relatively quiet. Debating if I need to continue to post every day.

Week eleven of the war. Clear weather until Friday, then rain off and on for the next week. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to the north and east of Kharkov that took a half dozen villages in the last week and Ukraine claimed four more villages yesterday. They clearly continue make progress around Kharkov. Not sure if this is because they have put together a powerful offensive force, the Russian morale is collapsing, or because the Russians have thinned this out to mass elsewhere for an offensive. Suspect the latter.

Russia took one village near Lyman on 8 May.

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics.

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April.

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.