Category Coronavirus

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 7

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 3:32:46 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445…..6,584………7,551……….407

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…..1,416………1,728…….….81

Alexandria VA………….…160,530……1,240………1,577…….…34

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……6,470……….8,163……..302

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772………..37…………..44……..….5

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574……..…40……….…47…………3

Loudoun County, VA………406,850…..1,210………1,579…..…..49

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..3,078………4,054…….…79

Manassas…………………….41,641…..…430…………699…….….6

Manassas Park………….…..17,307…..…139……….…207………..3

Stafford Country, VA………149,960………396………….514……….4

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…………66………….101……….0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567……..7,283………9,052…….515

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308….…10,072……..12,446…….453

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425…….38,461……..47,762….1,941

 

The number of cases was doubling at every locale each week for the first three weeks I was tracking this. Four weeks ago it only went up by a little more than half (actually 58%), three week ago went up by half (actually 50%), two weeks ago it went up less than half (actually 39%) and last week it went up only 27%. The week not much progress. the number of cases went up 24%. The actual number of cases went up 9,301, compared to 8,200 new cases last week and 8,547 new cases the week before that. This really is not under control.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 4.06%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 0.89%. or one confirmed case for every 112 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

Last week the governor of Virginia (who is actually a medical doctor) extended the shut-down in Northern Virginia until 29 May. Certainly still needed and suspect he will need to extend it further. He gave a list of locales that were under that order, and it included every place mentioned above except Fredericksburg.

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 142 confirmed cases (124 last week) and 4 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 72 confirmed cases (68 last week) and 2 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is unchanged with 66 cases this week (66 last week) and 1 death. Of course, who know what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 6

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 10:32:27 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445…..5,322….…6,584……….350

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…..1,169……1,416…………66

Alexandria VA………….…160,530………983……1,240…………30

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……4,834……6,470……….253

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772…..…..36…….….37……….….4

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574………..33….……40……….…3

Loudoun County, VA………406,850….…998…..1,210………….35

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..2,223…..3,078……….…58

Manassas…………………….41,641……..289….…430…………….3

Manassas Park………….…..17,307…..…..96…..…139……………3

Stafford Country, VA………149,960…..…308……..396…………….4

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144……..….45………..66…………..0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567…..…5,790……7,283………422

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308….……8,135….10,072………389

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425….…30,261…..38,461……1,620

 

The number of cases was doubling at every locale each week for the first three weeks I was tracking this. Thee weeks ago it only went up by a little more than half (actually 58%). Two week ago went up by half (actually 50%) and last week is went up less than half (actually 39%). This week it has gone up only 27%, although this is still over 8,000 new cases. This is not anywhere near zero. So, a positive downward trend, although painfully slow.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 4.21%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 0.72%. or one confirmed case for every 140 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

This week the governor of Virginia (who is actually a medical doctor) extended the shut-down in Northern Virginia until 29 May. Certainly needed. He gave a list of locales that were under that order, and it included every place mentioned above except Fredericksburg. Does this mean I can drive down to Fredericksburg and have a beer?

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 124 confirmed cases (110 last week) and 4 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 68 confirmed cases (64 last week) and 2 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 66 cases (61 last week) and 1 death. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 4

This updated post addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the seven worst plagued countries in the world (see post from yesterday on the “big seven”). We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 12:32:33 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea, population 52 million. They have 10,822 reported cases, only 120 more cases than reported around this same time two weeks ago. This is clearly what controlling the virus looks like. They have had a total of 256 deaths, for a mortality rate of 2.37%

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, are the United States (1,263,052 reported cases), Spain (221,447 reported cases), Italy (217,185 reported cases), United Kingdom (212,626 reported cases), Russia (187,859 reported cases), France (174,918 reported cases) and Germany (169,430 reported cases). It looks like Spain, Italy, France and Germany are reaching their deflection point. The United States, United Kingdom and Russia clearly have not. The graphs from yesterday are in this post:

Coronavirus and the big seven

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (15,477 cases and 577 deaths), Taiwan (440 cases and 6 deaths) and Vietnam (288 cases and no reported deaths). Not sure why Japan does not have the virus under control like South Korea does. This would be worth looking into.

And here is China (83,976 reported cases and 4,637 reported deaths), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add to this collection of graphs Austria (15,774 reported cases and 614 deaths), Denmark (10,416 reported case and 522 deaths), Czech Republic (8,065 reported cases and 271 deaths), Norway (8,055 reported cases and 218 deaths), Australia (6,914 reported cases and 97 reported deaths), Iceland (1,801 reported cases, only 16 new cases in the last two week), and New Zealand (1,490 reported cases, only 39 new cases since last week, and 21 deaths). It appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off. I gather New Zealand is now reporting no new cases.

 

And then there is Singapore. Three weeks ago it had 3,614 reported cases. Two weeks ago it had 11,178 reported cases. Now it has 21,707 reported cases and 20 reported deaths. It appears that they have lost control of the situation again.

And then there is Sweden, which I gather did not do any lockdown procedures. They have 25,265 reported cases and 3,175 deaths. Compare their graph and their stats to their neighbors Denmark and Norway.

 

Coronavirus and the big seven

Not quite done blogging about the Coronavirus yet, as it is not quite done with us…yet.

The seven countries with the highest number of reported cases is the United States and six European Countries. These account for five of the ten richest countries in the world. They are shown below in order of number of cases (as of 9:33:26):

First is the United States (population 330 million) with 1,229K cases and over 73K deaths. This graph is of the number of cases over time, as are the rest.

Next is Spain (47 million) with 220K cases and 26K deaths.

Third on the list is Italy (60 million) with 214K cases and almost 30K deaths.

Fourth on the list is the United Kingdom (68 million) with 202K cases and over 30K deaths. The UK has clearly boggled their response worse than any other country on this listing, with the highest numbers of cases per capita and deaths per capita. This is from an island nation that had warning after Italy and Spain were struck with the virus.

Fifth is Russia (147 million) with 177K cases but only 1,625 deaths. This last figure is may be questionable. Right now their mortality rate is 0.92%.

Sixth is France (67 million) with 174K cases and 26K deaths.

Then there is Germany (83 million) with 168K cases and only 7,277 deaths. This is a morality rate of 4.33%, which is still high. Germany has certainly does the best job of all these countries in containing the virus. This is a country that is densely populated and mostly land borders. Their death figures are probably underreported due to their definitions of what constitutes a death due to coronavirus as opposed to other causes.

Also of note, are three other “western” countries: Canada, Netherlands and Belgium:

Canada (38 million) has 65K cases and only 4,366 deaths. Compared to the United States, it has 13% of the population, 5% of the cases and 6% of the deaths. Basically per capita, it infection and mortality rate is half compared to the United. U.S. mortality rate is 5.97%, strongly indicated that there are a lot more cases out there than we have not tested for. Canada’s mortality rate 6.75%, which means that they appear to have the same problem.

There is Belgium (11.5 million) with 51K cases and 8,415 deaths. This is more deaths than reported for Germany and the highest number of deaths per capita among these ten countries. Part of the reason may be again reporting, with Belgium claiming to be very “honest” in their reporting. In the end, people are going to have to look at “excess deaths” since the beginning of this year to get a proper feel of what the real comparative death counts are.

Finally, there is the Netherlands (17.5 million) has 42K case and 5,305 deaths.

It does appear like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Holland are bringing the virus under control. Clearly the United States, United Kingdom, Russia and Canada have not.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 5

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 11:32:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445…..4,106……5,322….…..264

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521….…912……1,169………..49

Alexandria VA………….…160,530………653………983…….…26

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……3,448……4,834………201

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772……….26………..36………….4

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574……….27……….33…………2

Loudoun County, VA………406,850……..727………998……….24

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011……1,449……2,223………33

Manassas…………………….41,641……..175………289……….1

Manassas Park………….…..17,307………..53……….96…….….2

Stafford Country, VA………149,960………221………308………..2

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144……..….27……….45………..0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567….…4,152……5,790..….333

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308………5,738……8,135…….311

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425……21,714…..30,261….1,252

 

The number of cases was doubling at every locale each week for the first three weeks I was tracking this. Week before last it only went by a little more than half (actually 58%). Last week it went up by half (actually 50%) and this week is went up less than half (actually 39%). So, a positive downward trend. although painfully slow.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 4.14%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 0.56%. or one confirmed case for every 177 people. It may be that around 2% of the area has been infected.

From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities. They do say that this area will become one of the next hotspots, but because it is spread out and primarily suburban, I don’t think it will be anything like New York. The fact that the rate of spread has been declining for three weeks is a positive sign.

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 110 confirmed cases (81 last week) and 4 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 64 confirmed cases (51 last week) and 2 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 61 cases (54 last week) and 1 death. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 4

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 10:32:29 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445…,.3,098…..….4,106………..205

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…,….625….…..…912………….32

Alexandria VA………….…160,530…,…..462.……..…653…………20

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……2,077……….3,448………124

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772………..24…………….26………….2

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574………..22…………….27…………2

Loudoun County, VA………406,850……..468.…………727…….…14

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..…867………1,449…….…20

Manassas…………………….41,641……..110………….175………….2

Manassas Park………….…..17,307………..31…………..53………….1

Stafford Country, VA………149,960…..….164…………221………….2

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…….……17………….27…………..0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567……..2,768…..…4,152……….242

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308…..….3,734……..5,738……….224

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425……14,467……21,714…..….890

 

The number of cases was doubling at every locale each week for the previous three weeks. Last week it only went up by half (actually 58%). This week is went up by half (actually 50%). So, this is a more positive trend.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 4.10%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 0.40%. or one confirmed case for every 247 people. Probably over 1% of the area has been infected.

From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities. They do say that this area will become one of the next hotspots, but because it is spread out and primarily suburban, I don’t think it will be anything like New York. The fact that the rate of spread has been declining for two weeks is a positive sign.

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 81 confirmed cases (66 last week) and 4 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 51 confirmed cases (41 last week) and 2 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 54 cases (48 last week) and 1 death. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 3

I may continue updating this post for a while. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 8:31:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (10,702 reported cases, only 89 more case than reported around this same time last week):

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, here are the graphs for the United States (842,624 reported cases), Spain (213,024 reported cases) and Italy (187,327 reported cases). It looks like Spain and Italy are reaching their deflection point:

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (11,950 cases), Taiwan (427 cases) and Vietnam (268 cases, the same as last week). Not sure why Japan does not have the virus under control like South Korea does. This would be worth looking into.

And here is China (83,878 reported cases), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austria (15,002 reported cases), Norway (7,338 reported cases), Australia (6,547 reported cases and only 85 new cases since last week), the Czech Republic (7,136 reported cases), Iceland (1,785 reported cases and only 58 new cases since last week) and New Zealand (1,451 reported cases and only 50 new cases since last week) to this collection of graphs as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off:

Finally, there is Germany, which has the fifth highest number of reported cases (at 150,773). They also appear to be bringing this under control.

And then there is Singapore. Last week it had 3,614 reported cases. Now it has 11,178 reported cases. It appears that they have lost control of the situation again.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 3

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 8:39:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from the post three weeks ago, two weeks ago, last week’s post followed by the number of cases this week. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…..Week 3…Week 2…Week 1….Week 0…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445……..507…….1,211……2,058… 3,098……..112

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…….104……….237………401……..625..…….22

Alexandria VA………….…160,530……….30…..…..126……..247……..462…………8

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……..244……….532……1,207……2,077………37

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772……………………………..….2………..24

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574……………………………..…1…………22

Loudoun County, VA………406,850………87….……209…..…344……..468.………8

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…..….94….……236……..508………867……….1

Manassas…………………….41,641………………………………49………110

Manassas Park………….…..17,307………………………………13…………31

Stafford Country, VA………149,960…..….24….….….49…….…95………164

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…………1……….….8………14………..17

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567……..447…..……871..…1,883…….2,768..…116

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308……….403……..1,020……2,356…….3,734……118

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425….…1,941……..4,499……9,178……14,467……422

 

The number of cases appeared to be doubling at every locale each week for the last three weeks. This week, it only went up by half (actually 58%). So, this is a more positive trend. There were 23 deaths recorded three weeks ago, 76 two weeks ago, 222 last week and 422 this week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.92%. The population known to be infected is 0.27%. or one confirmed case for every 371 people. As I suspect the real morality rate is 1% or lower, then probably about 1% of the area is infected.

From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities. They do say that this area will become one of the next hotspots, but because it is spread out and primarily suburban, I don’t think it will be anything like New York. The fact that the rate of spread is already declining is a positive sign.

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 66 confirmed cases (50 last week) and Charlottesville, VA which has 41 confirmed cases (36 last week) and 1 death. Montgomery County, VA has 48 cases (33 last week). These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment.

Coronavius Mortality Rates update 15

This is my last update of this post for a while. My first post on Mortality Rates was on 27 February. At that time there was 4,051 cases of Coronavirus outside of China and only 66 deaths outside of China. It is here:

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

I am looking at shifting away from Coronavirus posts and focusing more time on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase,  as sadly are the number of deaths, and so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 3.31%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000 residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the data is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. China has had 83,853 cases of which 77,799 recovered and 4,636 have died. If these figures are correct, this means that there are only 1,418 active cases left in China. In contrast, the United States has staggering 788,110 cases with only 73,533 recovered and a depressing 42,458 deaths. We are now 32% of the world’s reported cases and 25% of the world’s reported deaths. We are 4% of the world’s population.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……2,499,723….171,718…..…6.87%

United States…….788,110……42,458…..…5.39%

Spain………..……204,178……21,282……10.42%

Italy………..….…..181,228……24,114..….13.31%

France………….…156,493……20,265……12.95%

Germany…….……147,103….…4,869…..….3.31%

United Kingdom….125,856……16,509…….13.12%

Turkey…….……..…90,980….….2,140……..2.35%

Iran………………….84,802……..5,297…..…6.25%

China.………………83,853……..4,636.…….5.54%

Russia…….……..…52,763…….…456….….0.86%

Belgium….………….40,956……..5,998……14.64%

Brazil…………………40,814….….2,588…..…6.34%

Canada………………37,933……..1,753……..4.62%

Netherlands.……..…34,317……..3,916……11.41%

Switzerland…………28,063……..1,436……..5.12%

Portugal.…..…….….21,379…….….762.….…3.56%

India…………………18,985……..…603.……..3.18%

Peru………….………16,325……..…445.……..2.73%

Ireland………….……15,652……..…687.……..4.39%

Sweden…..…….……15,322………1,765…….11.52%

Austria………………14,873…………491………3.30%

Israel…….……….…13,883…….…..181………1.31%

Saudi Arabia……….11,631…………109……….0.94%

Japan……………….11,135…..……..263.….…..2.36%

S. Korea……….…..10,683…………237…..…..2.22%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

Pakistan…………….…9,216……..…192……….2.08%

Singapore…..…………9,125…………11……..…0.12%

Mexico…………………8,772…..……712……..…8.12%

Denmark..….…………7,891………..370…….…4.69%

Norway……………..…7,191..………182…….…2.53%

Indonesia….……..……7,135…….….616………..8.63%

Czechia…………………6,914…..…….196…….…2.83%

Australia………..……..6,547..……..….67….……1.02%

Ukraine…………………6,125…..…….161……..…2.63%

Egypt…………..….…..3,333…….……250…..……7.50%

Hungary……………….2,098……..….213……….10.15%

Bahrain……….……….1,952………….…7…….…..0.36%

Iceland…………..……1,778……………10…………0.56%

Iraq…..…………….…..1,574..…..…….82…..…..…5.21%

New Zealand…………1,445…………..13…………0.90%

Hong Kong….….…….1,029……….…4………..…0.39%

Afghanistan……………1,092….…..…..36………….3.30%

Andorra……….…….……717.…..……..37……..….5.16%

Lebanon……..…….….…677..…………21……..….3.10%

San Marino………………476……..……40………….8.40%

Palestine…..……………..461…..……..…4………….0.87%

Taiwan………………..…425………….…6….………1.41%

Vietnam….………..….…268………….…0………….0%

North Korea..………….…..0……..…..…0…….….…0%

Syria……….………….……..0……..……..0……….…0%

Yemen………………………..1……..……..0…..…..…0%

Libya……….………..……….0………..…..0………..…0%

Diamond Princess…….….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/21/20 as of 9:38.33 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.

U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt correction

Testing on the USS Theodore Roosevelt

I stated in the previous post on this subject that “They probably picked up the virus around 9 March while making a port call in Da Nang, Vietnam.” According to this article, this may not be the case: https://news.yahoo.com/navy-believes-delivery-flights-not-205814720.html

According to this article, they might have picked up the virus due to delivery flights made to the carrier, not from Vietnam. The navy officials say they have been unable to make a definitive link between the Vietnam port call and the cases that have occurred on the ship. The Carrier onboard deliveries (COD) flights would have originated from the Philippines or Japan.