Category Coronavirus

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week the previous month to less than 3,000 cases a week. This week is was 2,681 new cases, which is an increase over last week’s count of 2,406. This decline in cases occurred during the protests. We have just gotten through the 4th of July weekend. Still, this is not great. For example, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 137 cases yesterday. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:33:48 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….10,365……10,569……..561
Arlington, VA……………..237,521….…..2,484……..2,558…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,325……..2,408………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795….…13,864.……14,253…….495
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..…..…52………….54…….…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….……..70………….72…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….4,047……….4,282…..…98
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….7,331……….7,664…….151
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…1,414……….1,464………18
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….430………….449…….…6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..…990…..….1,029…….…5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….…249………….263…….…0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……14,803…….15,400…….752
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,645…….19,285……699
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……77,069……79,750…..2,989

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.75%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.49% or one confirmed case for every 67 people.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 498 confirmed cases (407 last week) and 10 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 241 confirmed cases (216 last week) and 7 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 170 cases this week (147 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 82 cases (59 last week) and 1 death. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate.

The virus has been going on for a while, and a number of countries have been hard hit but are now successful in containing it, some contained it early on and were never hard hit, some have been less successful, and some really have not contained the virus. Let us look at some mortality rates from a few selected countries:

UK (44K/67M): 0.07% or 1 out of every 1,523 people

Spain (28K/47M): 0.06%

Italy (35K/60M): 0.06%

France (30K/67M): 0.04%

USA (129K/330M): 0.04% or 1 out of every 2,558 people

Canada (8.7K/38M): 0.02%

Germany (9K/83M): 0.01%
Japan (1K/136M): 0.0007%

.

These include seven of the ten richest countries in the world.

A few others of note:

Belgium (9.8K/11.5M): 0.08% or 1 out of every 1,173 people
Holland (6.1K/17.5M): 0.03%

.

Australia (0.1K/26 M): 0.0004%
New Zealand (0.02K/5M): 0.0004%

.

Sweden (5.4K/10.3M): 0.05% or 1 out of every 1,907 people
Denmark (0.6K/5.8M): 0.01%
Norway (0.25K/5.4M): 0.005%
Finland (0.3K/5.5 M): 0.005%

 

This is all based upon Johns Hopkins CSSE reports. Deaths are rounded to the nearest thousand. Population data is from estimates for either late 2019 or mid-2020 (courtesy of Wikipedia) and rounded to the nearest million. For some countries, there are questions about the accuracy of their statistics, although I don’t think the data from any of these countries are in much doubt. All of these countries are wealthy, developed economies with democratic governance and a free press. I do think there is a difference of interpretation between cause of deaths between say Germany and Belgium, which may be part of the difference between their rates. This will need to be addressed by a study on “excess mortality.”

The mortality rates of most of these countries are not going to increase by much more because they have mostly brought the virus under control. This is not the case for Sweden and the United States.

The graph of the daily cases for the U.S. is:

In contrast, Italy is:

 

Another weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to near 5,400 new cases four weeks ago to near 3,200 cases three weeks ago and down near 2,600 new cases two weeks ago. Over this last week there were 2,406 new cases. This decline occurred during the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:33:53 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……10,128……10,365……..553
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..2,438……..2,484…….132
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2.258….…2,325………57
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….13,588…..13,864.……488
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…..….….57…….…52…………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………69………..70…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.……..3,683…….4,047…..…87
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… .7,038…….7,331…….144
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,370…….1,414……..18
Manassas Park………….…17,307…….….416…….…430………6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…………949………990………5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..…235………249………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….14,283…..14,803……739
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……18,151..…18,645……686
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.……74,663…..77,069…2,930

The number of new cases dropped to 5,384 four weeks ago down to 3,216 new cases three weeks ago, down to 2,617 new cases two weeks ago and was 2,406 new cases this last week (measured from my previous Wednesday posting to this Wednesday posting). It was 9,301 new cases seven weeks ago, 8,591 new cases six weeks ago, 7,094 new cases five weeks ago and 5,384 new cases four weeks ago. Keep in mind a number of states are currently running 4,000 to 6,000 new cases a day! This is a 3% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.80%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.44% or one confirmed case for every 70 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 407 confirmed cases (359 last week) and 9 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 216 confirmed cases (182 last week) and 4 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 147 cases this week (116 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 59 cases (31 last week) and 1 death.

One more weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases four weeks ago to near 5,000 cases three weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases two weeks ago., Over this last week there were 2,617 new cases. So far, it does not look like a real negative impact from all the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:33:35 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….9,847……10,128……..541
Arlington, VA……………..237,521…….2,372….….2,438……..126
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….2,175..……2.258…….…50
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……13,153…..13,588………450
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………58…….….57…….….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….……..68…………69…….….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.…….3,458….…3,683………84
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… 6,654…….7,038…..…136
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,320……1,370……….16
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….390……….416…………5
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………..906….…..949…………5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….215…..….235…………0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……13,819…..14,283…….728
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..17,611…..18,151..……662
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..72,046..…74,663……2,817

The number of new cases the previous week dropped to 5,384 two weeks, down to 3,216 new cases last week and 2,617 new cases this week. It was 9,301 new cases five weeks ago, 8,591 new cases four weeks ago, 7,094 new cases three weeks ago and 5,384 new cases two weeks ago. We shall see if it holds. This is a 4% increase since last week. The number of deaths increased this last week by less than a hundred.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.77%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.39% or one confirmed case for every 72 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 359 confirmed cases (293 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 182 confirmed cases (161 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 116 cases this week (97 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 31 cases (25 last week) and 1 death.

Below are the case charts by day for DC, Maryland and Virginia (for the entire state in the case of Maryland and Virginia). They all show a positive pattern:

Just doing my weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last three weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases three weeks ago to near 5,000 cases two weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases over this last week. So far, it does not look like a real negative impact from all the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:33:26 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….9,474……9,847……..523
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……2,280…….2,372….….124
Alexandria VA……………160,530……2,125……..2,175..….…48
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…..12,746…..13,153…..….429
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..56….…….58……..….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….…….69………..68….…….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.…….3,180……3,458………80
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… 6,376……6,654…..…127
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,262……1,320……….14
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….360…..….390…..…….6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….831..……906………….5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………194………215….……..0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..13,124….13,819…..….672
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..16,753….17,611….…..648
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..68,830….72,046..….2,690

The number of new cases the previous week dropped to 5,384 and this week down to 3,216 new cases. It was 9,301 new cases four weeks ago, 8,591 new cases three weeks ago, 7,094 new cases two weeks ago and 5,384 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 5% increase since last week. The number of deaths increased this last week by less than a hundred.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.73%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.34%. or one confirmed case for every 74 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 293 confirmed cases (260 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 161 confirmed cases (142 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 97 cases this week (96 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 25 cases (25 last week) and 1 death.

Below are the case charts by day for DC, Maryland and Virginia (for the entire state in the case of Maryland and Virginia). They all show a positive pattern:

Still maintain weekly updates of this coronavirus post. The last two weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases two weeks ago to near 5,000 cases this last week. Wondering, with all the protests, if that decline will continue. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:33:09 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……9,016….…9,474………..495
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……2,142….…2,280……….121
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….2,016….…2,125……..…47
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…..11,596…..12,746……….422
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..55…..……56………….8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574………..67………. 69……….…6
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….2,659….…3,180…………67
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….5,837…… 6,376…….…118
Manassas…………………..41,641…….1,154……1,262…..…….12
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….332….…..360………….6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….738………831………….5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……….172……..194…………..0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……11,924….13,124……….672
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308……15,738….16,753………613
Total……….…….………..5,365,425……63,446….68,830…….2,592

This is real progress, as the number of new cases dropped to 5,384. It was 8,200 new cases four weeks ago, 9,301 new cases three weeks ago, 8,591 new cases two weeks ago and 7,094 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 8% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.77%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.28%. or one confirmed case for every 78 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 260 confirmed cases (204 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 142 confirmed cases (128 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 96 cases this week (80 last week) and 1 death. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 25 cases (22 last week) and 1 death.

I am trying to get out of the business of blogging about the coronavirus and move onto other subjects…but, it is kind of hard to ignore.

The nine countries with the highest number of reported cases is the United States, six European Countries, Brazil and India. These account for seven of the ten richest countries in the world. They are shown below, mostly in order of the number of cases (as of 9:32:58 AM EST): Johns Hopkins CSSE

First is the United States (population 330 million) with 1,853K cases and over 107K deaths. The United States now has the highest number of reported cases per capita of any of the “big nine.” This graph is of the number of cases over time, as are the rest.

Next is Brazil (population of 210 million) with 584K cases and over 32K deaths.

Third on the list is Russia (147 million) with 441K cases but only 5,376 deaths. There is some suspicion that the mortality figure is under-reported. That figure gives them a mortality rate of 1.22%. Right now the restrictions in Moscow are very limited (far more so than anyplace in the U.S.).

Fourth is the United Kingdom (68 million) with 281K cases and almost 40K deaths. The UK still has the highest number of deaths per capita of any of the “big nine,” but it does appear that they are bringing the number of cases down now. Still, this was an island nation that had warning after Italy and Spain were struck with the virus.

And:

These four counties have two things in common, first their graphs are pretty much showing a straight line to hell, and second, in my opinion, they all have poorly handled the response to the Coronavirus. They certainly have when compared to the four countries below, all European. They all appear to have brought the virus under control.

Fifth on the list of cases is Spain (47 million) with 240K cases and 27K deaths.

Sixth on the list is Italy (60 million) with almost 234K cases and over 33K deaths. This was the first country in Europe to be seriously hit by the virus.

Eighth is France (67 million) with almost 189K cases and 29K deaths.

Ninth on the list is Germany (83 million) with over 184K cases and only 8,627 deaths. This is a morality rate of 4.68%, which is still high. Germany has certainly does the best job of all these countries in containing the virus. This is a country that is densely populated and mostly land borders. Their death figures may be unreported compared to other countries (for example Belgium) due to definitions of what constitutes a death due to coronavirus as opposed to other causes.

Also on the “big nine” list is India, now seventh on the list and unfortunately is going to rise much higher. They have a population of 1,363 million, with almost 218K cases but only 6,104 reported deaths. This is a mortality rate of 2.80%

 

There are three other “western” countries of interest to me: Canada, Netherlands and Belgium:

Canada (38 million) has over 94K cases and only 7,579 deaths. Compared to the United States, it has 13% of the population, 5% of the cases and 7% of the deaths. Basically per capita, it infection and mortality rate is half compared to the United. U.S. mortality rate is 5.79%, strongly indicated that there are a lot more cases out there than we have not tested for. Canada’s mortality rate 8.00%, which means that they appear to have the same problem.

There is Belgium (11.5 million) with almost 59K cases and 9,548 deaths. This is more deaths than reported for Germany and the highest number of deaths per capita among these twelve countries. Part of the reason may be again reporting, with Belgium claiming to be very “honest” in their reporting. In the end, people are going to have to look at “excess deaths” since the beginning of this year to get a proper feel of what the real comparative death counts are.

Finally, there is the Netherlands (17.5 million) has 47K cases and 6,009 deaths.

It does appear like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Holland are bringing the virus under control. Clearly the United States, Brazil, Russia, India and Canada have not. Hopefully, the United Kingdom is finally starting to.

Still trying to keep this as a weekly update, although I have been a little busy lately.

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 2:33:17 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445……8,406…..….9,016………..473

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521……1,988………2,142……….120

Alexandria VA………….…160,530…….1,824………2,016…………46

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……10,069…….11,596……….396

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772…………53…………..55………….8

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574…….…..59…………..67…………6

Loudoun County, VA………406,850…….2,274………2,659………..67

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011…….5,074……….5,837…..…109

Manassas…………………….41,641…..…..966………1,154………..12

Manassas Park………….…..17,307……….280………….332………….6

Stafford Country, VA………149,960………..657…………738………….5

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…….…..136………….172……..….0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567……..10,467………11,924……..633

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308……….14,100……..15,738……..565

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425………56,353……..63,446…..2,446

 

Well, this is real progress, as the number of new cases dropped to 7,093. It was 8,547 new cases four weeks ago, 8,200 new cases three weeks ago, 9,301 new cases two weeks ago and 8,591 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 13% increase since last week.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.86%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.18%. or one confirmed case for every 85 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 204 confirmed cases (168 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 128 confirmed cases (97 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 80 cases this week (70 last week) and 1 death.  Of course, who know what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina was 22 cases (22 last week) and 3 deaths.

As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 11:32:33 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………….….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths

Washington D.C…………..702,445…..7,551………8,406…..….445

Arlington, VA…………..…..237,521…..1,728………1,988………109

Alexandria VA………….…160,530……1,577………1,824………..42

Fairfax County, VA……..1,150,795……8,163…….10,069………364

Falls Church, VA……..…….14,772………..44………….53………….8

Fairfax City, VA……..………24,574…….…47……..……59…………4

Loudoun County, VA………406,850……1,579………2,274………..53

Prince Williams C., VA….…468,011……4,054……..5,074……..…99

Manassas…………………….41,641…..…699…………966………..10

Manassas Park………….…..17,307………207…………280…….…..6

Stafford Country, VA………149,960………514…………657…….….4

Fredericksburg, VA…….…..29,144…….…101…………136…….….0

Montgomery C., MD….…1,052,567….…9,052……..10,467……..572

Prince Georges C., MD….909,308…….12,446………14,100…….520

Total……….…….…….…5,365,425……47,762………56,353…..2,236

 

The number of cases was doubling at every locale each week for the first three weeks I was tracking this. The rate of decreased, but primarily because the denominator got large. So it went to 58% increase, then 50%, then 39%, then 27% and last week only increased by 24%. This week the increase was only 18% but the actual number of cases went up 8,591. It has been in the that range for a while (9,301 new cases last week, 8,200 new cases the week before that and 8,547 new cases three weeks ago). This is still not under control.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.97%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.05%. or one confirmed case for every 95 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The governor of Virginia (who is actually a medical doctor) extended the shut-down in Northern Virginia until 29 May. Certainly still needed and suspect he will need to extend it further. He gave a list of locales that were under that order, and it included every place mentioned above except Fredericksburg.

The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia. Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 168 confirmed cases (142 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 97 confirmed cases (72 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is unchanged with 70 cases this week (66 last week) and 1 death. Of course, who know what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. They are in the part of Virginia where restrictions have been relaxed.