Category Coronavirus

Weekly update number 29 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. Not sure how many people are following this, but I kind of want to know.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,012 new cases. Last week there were 3,784 new cases. So back on the rise again. So we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 11K new cases for the day yesterday. They are now reporting twice as many cases per day as they were reporting with the initial infection they were dealing with in late March. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had:

Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (21K cases yesterday), France (21K) or Spain (14K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 60K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 sixteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,068….16,498………642
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,228……4,437………152
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..4,045…….4,144……….75
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……22,185…..22,849……..604
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………75………..75……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….144………157………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…7,303……7,634……..130
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……13,281….13,735……..222
Manassas…………………..41,641…..….1,998……2,018………27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……627….…..634……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,174……2,287………20
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….568………576………..6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….23,817….24,664……862
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….30,878….31,695……848
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..127,391..131,403….3,611

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.75%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.45% or one confirmed case for every 41 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,945 cases (2,864 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,701 cases (1,640 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,536 confirmed cases (1,467 last week) and 32 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,501 confirmed cases (1,443 last week) and 23 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,565 cases this week (2,381 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (910 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 341 cases (309 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

One of the issues with evaluating the impact of Coronavirus is that determining the cause of death is at best uncertain, and varies depending on who is counting and what the rules are. The example I have used several times is the difference between Belgium (pop. 11.5 million), which has 181,511 reported cases and 10,278 deaths compared to Germany (pop. 83.1 million) which was 344,487 cases and 9,724 deaths. The coronavirus statistics are even more confusing for those countries will poor reporting systems or who deliberately manipulate the statistics. In the end, it will be an analysis of “excess deaths” that may really explain what has happened.

There is an excess death study done by the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC). The links to that are here:
ttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Also see the article summarizing a study at Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) that indicates that the number of deaths from coronavirus may be 50% higher: 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/us-covid-deaths-75-k-more-americans-died-than-previously-recorded-excess-deaths/5935813002/

Study is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220

The actual number of reported cases for the U.S. (as of this morning) is 216,933. These studies strongly indicates that the U.S. reporting of deaths of somewhat close to reality. It is not an inflated count. It may be underreporting the extent of the tragedy.

I assume similar studies have been done for Belgium and Germany. An article addressing excess deaths in both countries is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/10/15/how-excess-mortality-in-2020-compares-infographic/#5ed4902f67a2

They report that excess mortality for Belgium is +67.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, while for Germany it is +10.0. I gather that means for Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has 7,797 excess deaths (vice 10,728 reported coronavirus deaths). For Germany, with a population of 83.1 million, this is 8,310 excess deaths (vice 9,724 reported coronavirus deaths). 

Excess mortality for the U.S. is given as +71.6. With a population of 330.5 million, this is 236,638 compared to 216,933 reported coronavirus deaths.

 

 

Weekly update number 28 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,784 new cases. Last week there were only 2,592 new cases. So back on the rise again. So we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 5,898 new cases for the day yesterday. They have almost climbed up to levels of infection they were at in late March. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (17K cases yesterday), France (22K) or Spain (7K cases yesterday but 28K the day before). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 52K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fifteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:24 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,652….16,068……637
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..4,068……4,228……152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,932……4,045……..73
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………21,414….22,185……599
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………72……….75…….…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….140……..144………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………7,026……7,303…….128
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,811.….13,281…….216
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,954…….1,998………25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..616………627……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,081…….2,174……..19
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…….553………568……….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..23,135…..23,817……859
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..30,153…..30,878…….840
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……123,607…127,391….3,576

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.81%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.37% or one confirmed case for every 42 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.” I personally do not know anyone that has been infected, although I know a few people who have been tested due to danger of exposure.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,864 cases (2,739 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,640 cases (1,558 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is re-opening again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,467 confirmed cases (1,383 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,443 confirmed cases (1,385 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is declining.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,381 cases this week (2,165 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is back up to over 1,000 cases a day. It did drop down to 623 new cases last week, but does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend. It continues running a thousand new cases a day.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 309 cases (293 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Weekly update number 27 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 2,592 new cases. Last week there were 3,111 new cases. This is the first time in over three months that there has been less than 3,000 cases a week. This is good. Hopefully it will continue to decline.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 2,677 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (15K cases yesterday), France (11K) or Spain (12K). The U.S., which had never gotten the virus under control, had 44K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fourteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,326…15,652….631
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..3,995…..4,068…..152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,852…..3,932….…71
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………20,981…21,414……592
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………70……….72………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….137……140……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………6,889….7,026…….126
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,567…12,811.…..208
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,931….1,954……..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….614……..616…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………2,028…..2,081………18
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…..547….…553………..5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……22,584….23,135……850
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..29,494….30,153…….831
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…121,015..123,607….3,531

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.86%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.30% or one confirmed case for every 43 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,739 cases (2,667 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,558 cases (1,460 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is about to re-open again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,383 confirmed cases (1,246 last week) and 30 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,385 confirmed cases (1,306 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is now stabilized.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,165 cases this week (1,997 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself seems to be finally declining. It was running near a thousand new cases a day. It is down to 623 new cases yesterday.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 293 cases (272 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there were 3,387 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,647 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 thirteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….15,050…..15,326…….627
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,877……3,995…….150
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,741……3,852………69
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….20,437…..20,981…….588
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….69…..…..70……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….134……..137………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,720…..6,889….…125
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……12,215…12,567….…205
Manassas…………………..41,641….…..1,904……1,931………26
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..607.…….614…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,971..…2,028……..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….531……..547…..….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,933.…22,584..…849
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,715.…29,494..…828
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..117,904…121,015…3,512

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.90%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.26% or one confirmed case for every 44 people. This is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,667 cases (2,541 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,460 cases (1,390 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,246 confirmed cases (1,105 last week) and 29 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,306 confirmed cases (1,203 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions this last week, so the number of new cases is now lower. They may have been better served to have tighter restrictions before they had a problem until waiting until they do.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,997 cases this week (1,783 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running a little under a thousand new cases a day right now (901 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 272 cases (264 last week) and 2 deaths.

Sweden is unique in that they were one of the few countries in the Western World that did not shut down to try to contain the coronavirus. Let’s briefly take a look and see how that worked:

Country…Population…Cases…..Deaths….Infection Rate…Death Rate…Morality Rate

Sweden….10.3………….90,923…….5,880…..0.0088…………..0.00057…………6.5%

Denmark….5.8………….13,627……….270…..0.0023…………..0.00005…………2.0%

Norway……5.4………….26,637……….649…..0.0048…………..0.00012…………2.4%

.

U.S………328.2………7,081,505…204,527….0.0216…………..0.00062………….2.9%

UK………..67.9…………431,824…..42,060…..0.0064…………..0.00062………….9.7%

Italy………60.3………….308,104….35,818…..0.0051…………..0.00059………..11.6%

 

This data is from the Johns Hopkins website as of 9:23 AM. Population is in millions and is the 2020 estimates.

A few observations:

1. Sweden’s mortality rate is a more than 10 times higher then Denmark, which did do a strict lockdown.
2. Note that the U.S., UK and Italy have a higher mortality rate even though Sweden has not done a lockdown.
   1. The U.S. mortality rate is the highest of any developed nation in the world.
3. The differences in mortality rates is certainly strongly influenced by the amount of testing done. The high mortality rate of Italy, UK and Sweden is certainly because of less extensive testing or failure to test.
   1. The real mortality rate is probably between 0.5% and 2%.
4. Of course, there is no way of knowing how accurate are each of these statistics. For example, who is counted as killed by the disease does vary from country to country (for example: Germany versus Belgium).
5. I have no way of easily comparing the economic impact of the various policies.
6. One could postulate that If Sweden has Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have over 5,000 less deaths.
7. One could postulate that if the United States had Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have almost 190,000 less deaths.
   1. Keep in mind these numbers are particularly fuzzy due to different reporting standards and definitions.

The picture is of a Grenadier of the Swedish Royal Guard. Sweden has not been in a war since 1815.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,387 new cases. Last week week there were 3,317 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now. Still, it does not appear to be getting any better.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,391 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twelve weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,376…..15,050……..621
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,779……3,877……..148
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,628……3,741…..….68
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….19,837…..20,437…….583
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….66……..…69…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….132………134………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,523…….6,720……123
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….11,810…..12,215……201
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,869…….1,904……..25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..…….….598……….607.….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,880….…1,971..…..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….518….……531..…….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,467……21,933……841
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,034……28,715……821
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..114,517….117,904…3,473

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.95%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.20% or one confirmed case for every 46 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students two weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students around a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,541 cases (2,293 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,390 cases (1,312 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,203 confirmed cases (1,145 last week) and 21 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 1,105 confirmed cases (935 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a a growth in cases since they reopened, now around two hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are still not that actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines. They report 569 cases since 17 August, which I gather is a higher percentage of student population then for Virginia Tech.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,783 cases this week (1,554 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (862 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 264 cases (260 last week) and 2 deaths.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,317 new cases. Last week week there were 3,132 new cases. This is not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,229 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eleven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,362…..14,376……..617
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..3,679…….3,779……..146
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..3,546…….3,628……….66
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……19,177……19,837……..572
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……..….66…………66…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….126……….132…….…..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….6,273…….6,523………119
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..11,364……11,810……..196
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,842…….1,869…..…..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………587……….598…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..1,799…….1,880………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…..511……….518…………5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..20,766……21,467……..835
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..27,102……28,034……..814
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…111,200….114,517…..3,428

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.99%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.13% or one confirmed case for every 47 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA opened up for students a week ago. The other two universities opened up for students three or four weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,293 cases (1,989 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,312 cases (1,183 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Week before last they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,145 confirmed cases (1,101 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 935 confirmed cases (819 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a small boom in cases since they reopened, over a hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are not actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines.

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students). That is a nice indication of the prevalence of active cases.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,554 cases this week (1,073 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (935 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 260 cases (254 last week) and 2 deaths.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,132 new cases. Last week week there were 3,828 new cases. This is still not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,369 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 ten weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,077…..14,362………..611
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,569…….3,679……….143
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,415……3,546………….62
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….18,606.…19,177………..566
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..66………..66………..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..121………126…………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…6,053.…..6,273……….118
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,944.…11,364………188
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,813……1,842………..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….571.……..587…………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,729.…..1,799………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….486……….511…………4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….20,190..…20,766……..828
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….26,428……27,102…….803
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..108,068….111,200…..3,381

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.04%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.07% or one confirmed case for every 48 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA is opening up for students this weekend. The other two universities opened up for students two or three weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 1,989 cases (1,496 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,183 cases (1,0808 last week) and 20 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Last week they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,101 confirmed cases (1,052 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 819 confirmed cases (699 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes.

UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,073 cases this week (600 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (834 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 254 cases (242 last week) and 2 deaths.

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,828 new cases. Last week week there were 3,044 new cases. This is definitely heading in the wrong direction. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 975 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nine weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….13,684…..14,077…..…..608
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,415.……3,569…..….141
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,309.……3,415…….…62
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..17,784.…18,606.……..561
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..66.………66…..…..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………106.….…121…..……..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,769……6,053……….118
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,470….10,944……….187
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,769……1,813…………24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……..…554………571……….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,612…….1,729………..11
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….455…..….486……….…5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..19,599…..20,190………821
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..25,648..…26,428..……796
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……104,240…108,068……3,355

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.11%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.01% or one confirmed case for every 50 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This included James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA is opening up for students this weekend. The other two universities opened up for students two or three weeks ago. They have both had problems. James Madison is now reporting over 500 cases on campus and have moved their classes to being online. Virginia Tech is now reporting at least 178 new cases on campus. Will UVA be next?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/james-madison-university-online-coronavirus/2020/09/01/2ebc9036-ecac-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html?ocid=uxbndlbing

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/total-number-of-virus-cases-at-virginia-tech-rises-to-178/ar-BB18ykh7

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 1,496 cases and 33 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,080 cases and 20 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,052 confirmed cases (975 last week) and 18 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 699 confirmed cases (592 last week) and 20 deaths. This is where UVA is located.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 600 cases this week (392 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now and has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 242 cases (233 last week) and 2 deaths.