Category Coronavirus

The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 44 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,498 new cases. Last week it was 16,058 new cases and the week before it was 18,934 new cases. Thirteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (17K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (29K), Germany (8K) and Russia (16K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 114K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (50 cases), Japan (2,313), South Korea (467), Taiwan (3), Vietnam (32), Singapore (19), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3 cases on 1 Feb). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:21 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….35,865…..37,199……..926
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..11,414…..11,867……..203
Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,236…….9,544……..104
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……58,092….60,265………792
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.…….….285………296…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…….413………437………..12
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…19,508….20,791………184

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….34,314…..35,693………317
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,608……3,753………..33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,062……1,073……..…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..7,586……8,123……….50
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,468……1,569……….14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….57,685….59,439……1,320
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….66,535.…68,490……1,243
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……307,041…318,539……5,212

 

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 167 new fatalities reported out of 11,498 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%. This high mortality is probably as a result of the number of cases dropping, while the mortality numbers are tied to the number of cases several weeks earlier. The population known to have been infected is 5.94% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions this week.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,364 cases (5,223 last week) and 63 deaths (up 15 these last three weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,589 cases (5,434 last week) and 74 deaths (up 20 these last three weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,752 cases (2,681 last week) and 39 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,966 cases (3,789 last week) and 36 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,279 cases (6,003 last week) cases and 79 deaths (19 deaths these last two weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,414 cases (6,188 last week) and 65 deaths (up 17 these last three weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,740 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,701 cases (1,629 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Update to this post: The lockdowns from Coronavirus are over in 6 months? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The original goal was to inoculate 20 million people by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months.

According to one of the trackers I am watching (Bloomberg), as of 1 Feb. we have administered almost 33 million doses. The last couple of days we have been administering 1.3 or more million doses a day. This is better than the original needed goal of a million a day. Of course, most of these cases are the first of two doses, although I gather there are around six million people who have now received both doses. It does look like this is now on track. 

The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (20K yesterday) although much better. Yesterday they reported for France (22K), Spain (36K), Germany (9K) and Russia (18K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 147K new cases yesterday. This is improvement. This is in contrast to places like China (139 cases), Japan (3,861), South Korea (554), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (14), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 4:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….34,403……35,865…..895
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,860……11,414…..197
Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,810…….9,236…..102
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……54,918……58,092…..762
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……243……….285………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……373………..413…….10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…17,236……19,508…..173

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….32,237……34,314…..295
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,458.,…….3,608…….33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,041…..….1,062………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..6,887……..7,586……45
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,310……..1,468…….14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……55,203……57,685…1,292
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……63,994……66,535…1,213
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…290,973…..307,041…5,045

 

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 178 new fatalities reported out of 16,058 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.11%. The population known to have been infected is 5.72% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,223 cases (5,080 last week) and 59 deaths (up 11 these last two weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,434 cases (5,097 last week) and 69 deaths (up 15 these last two weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,681 cases (2,586 last week) and 38 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,789 cases (3,575 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,003 cases (5,514 last week) cases and 68 deaths (8 deaths this week).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,188 cases (5,894 last week) and 61 deaths (up 13 these last two weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,707 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,526. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,629 cases (1,523 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Inauguration of a new president today in D.C. Meanwhile the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus continue to rise nationally, although the rate of has declined. This is weekly update number 42 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 18,934 new cases. Last week it was 17,973 new cases. Eleven weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (33K yesterday), France (24K), Spain (34K), Germany (12K) and Russia (21K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 177K new cases yesterday. This is a downward trend. This is in contrast to places like China (159 cases), Japan (5,284), South Korea (403), Taiwan (6), Vietnam (1), Singapore (30), Australia (9) and New Zealand (5). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-nine weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….32,600…..34,403……863
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,277..…10,860……189
Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,307……8,810……..96
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……50,705…..54,918……733
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……210………243……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..342………373……..10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…15,711…..17,236……170
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….28,987…..32,237……278
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,184……3,458.,……30
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,004……1,041..,..….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….……6,192……6,887…….35
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,180…….1,310…….13
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……52,368…..55,203…1,245
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..60,972……63,994…1,191
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…272,039…290,973….4,867

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.67%. This last week, there were 156 new fatalities reported out of 18,934 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.82%. The population known to have been infected is 5.42% or one confirmed case for every 18 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,080 cases (4,888 last week) and 55 deaths (up 7 this last week!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,097 cases (4,737 last week) and 63 deaths (up 9 this last week!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,586 cases (2,482 last week) and 35 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,575  cases (3,366 last week) and 34 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 5,514 cases (5,040 last week) cases and 60 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 5,894 cases (5,691 last week) and 54 deaths (up 6 this last week!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,526 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,561. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,523 cases (1,346 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Amid all the other drama in D.C, we are also setting new national records this last week for the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus. The same with the D.C. area.

This is weekly update number 41 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 17,973 new cases. Last week it was 16,305 new cases. Ten weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 14K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (46K yesterday), France (20K), Spain (25K), Germany (27K) and Russia (23K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 225K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (175 cases), Japan (4,575), South Korea (561), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (5), Singapore (17), Australia (16) and New Zealand (6). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-eight weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of around 11 AM (forgot to check the time): Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….30,482……32,600……831
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..……9,420……10,277……187
Alexandria VA……………160,530………7,676……..8,307……..91
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..46,776…….50,705……720
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….…..194……….210………..6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..311………..342………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…14,973…..15,711…….165
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….27,297……28,987……268
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,025…….3,184……..29
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…….972…….1,004……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….….5,684……..6,192……..30
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,106….…1,180……..12
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……48,864…..52,368…1,203
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……57,286…..60,972…1,151
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…254,066….272,039…4,711

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.73%. This last week, there were 159 new fatalities reported out of 17,973 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.88%. The population known to have been infected is 5.07% or one confirmed case for every 20 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 4,888 cases (4,593 last week) and 48 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 4,737 cases (4,313 last week) and 54 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,482 confirmed cases (2,303 last week) and 35 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,366 confirmed cases (3,009 last week) and 34 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 5,040 cases and 60 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 5,691 cases this week (5,398 last week) and 48 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,561 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,377. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,346 cases (1,167 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Sorry for the late posting today, but was a little distracted by events in DC. They were not always socially distancing.

Weekly update number 40 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,305 new cases. Last week it was 16,418 new cases, the week before 12,087 cases, as the week before that there were 15,323 new cases. Nine weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 15K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (61K yesterday), France (21K), Spain (24K), Germany (18K) and Russia (24K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 230K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (64 cases), Japan (4,946), South Korea (839), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (7), Singapore (28), Australia (19) and New Zealand (4 on 1/04). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-seven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….28,758…..30,482……806
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..……8,786…….9,420……184
Alexandria VA……………160,530…..…7,231……..7,676……..89
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..43,434…..46,776…….691
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….…..174……….194……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..304………311………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…13,996….14,973….…161
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….25,247….27,297….…263
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….2,867…..3,025…..….29
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……926….….972……..…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….….5,099……5,684…..….26
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,021……1,106……….11
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..45,791…..48,864…..1,157
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..54,127….57,286…..1,111
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…237,761..254,066…..4,552

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.79%. This last week, there were 125 new fatalities reported out of 16,305 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.77%. The population known to have been infected is 4.74% or one confirmed case for every 21 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,593 cases (4,343 last week) and 46 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 4,313 cases (3,842 last week) and 48 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,303 confirmed cases (2,182 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 3,009 confirmed cases (2,756 last week) and 33 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 5,398 cases this week (5,138 last week) and 43 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,377 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,122. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,167 cases (996 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

 

We now have two working vaccines in America and are starting to distribute. The goal was to inoculate 20 million by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months. We fell short of the first goal (only inoculated around 2 million), but hopefully we are on track to inoculate a million people a day for here on out. We shall see.

Assuming you can inoculate a million people a day (it is a lot), then by the end of June we should have around 180 million people inoculated. There are currently over 20 million who have been tested with the virus, so they theoretically don’t need inoculation. The number who have had the virus but not been tested is probably around 20 to 60 million. The United States is currently accumulating more than 200,000 new reported infections a day, so if it continues at that rate (and I am not sure it will decline soon) by the end of June we may have another 36 million cases (and possibly another 180,000 to 360,000 deaths). The United States has a population of 331 million.

So, in an ideal scenario we would have by the end of June 180 million people inoculated, 20 million already infected, another 36 million infected over the six months, at least 20 million infected but not tested, an additional 36 million new cases of people infected by not tested, less all those people who have been infected but get the vaccine anyway (lets say 1/2 or – 56 million). So 180 + 20 + 36 + 20 + 36 – 56 = 236 million people protected/inoculated. This is 71% of the U.S. population vaccinated or previously infected. This is close to the infamous “herd immunity” which I gather should be 80% or greater.

There may be a group of people who resist or reject the vaccine. This is not a big issue for this calculation, as it simply means other people will get vaccinated instead.

Now, there are a lot of factors that will influence these figures. First and most important is can the United States vaccinate a million people a day? Right now, they have not. If they cannot then the point of recovery may slide out until the fall or even to the end of the year.

 

P.S. In the last three days we have administered 500,000 vaccines a day. See: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

 

Weekly update number 39 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,418 new cases. This is worse, but the statistics may be distorted because of the holidays. Last week it improved to be at 12,087 cases, as the week before there were 15,323 new cases. Eight weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (53K yesterday, it was 19K two weeks ago), France (11K), Spain (14K), Germany (19K) and Russia (27K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 202K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases three Tuesdays ago. This is in contrast to places like China (77 cases), Japan (3,629), South Korea (1,048), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (3), Singapore (13), Australia (32) and New Zealand (7 on 12/28). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….26,900……28,758……..780
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………8,121……..8,786…….181
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…6,782……..7,231…..….87
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….40,483……43,434…….679
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..157……..…174……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..281……….304………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……12,925……13,996……158
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….23,041……25,247……256
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,708……..2,867…….30
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………869……….926………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….4,578…….5,099…….24
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..941……..1,021……..9
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..42,551…..45,791..1,120
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..51,006….54,127…1,079
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……221,343…237,761..4,427

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.86%. This last week, there were 174 new fatalities reported out of 16,418 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.06%. This increased mortality rate is almost certainly driven by people who got ill several weeks ago, so in sense, the figures are now catching up from the lower mortality rates over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 4.43% or one confirmed case for every 23 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,343 cases (4,098 last week) and 44 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,842 cases (3,386 last week) and 47 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,182 confirmed cases (2,089 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,756 confirmed cases (2,509 last week) and 31 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 5,138 cases this week (4,853 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were, reinforcing my point that college students appear to be more responsible than many adults.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,122 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,591. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 996 cases (888 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.