Category Coronavirus

I have not posted for a while on the Coronavirus. I noticed on my twitter that people have posted the following stats on COVID from the CDC (Center for Disease Control):

Mortality Rates:

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100K
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100K
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100K


I went to their websites and tried to find the stats from the original source, but couldn’t find the magic button that led me to the magic stats, so I will just go with what I saw on twitter. After all, that is the data that is being transmitted through the aether.

Now I gather around 62% of Americans are partially or wholly vaccinated. 38% have taken no vaccines.

Now, there are a mere 331,893,745 people in the U.S. (2021 estimate).

So, 62% of 331,893,745/100K x 0.1 = 206 deaths

In this case, I am assuming that those vaccinated will be boosted. 

And, 38% of 331,893,745/100K x 6.1 = 7,693.

In this case, I am assuming these 38% will not get vaccinated. I would not be surprised if up to half of them do.

Does this really mean we are at the point that the total additional cost of the Coronavirus in the United States is less than 10,000 more lives? I find that hard to believe. In the last 28 days we have lost 35,492. Last week we lost 8,442 people.

To date, we have lost 812,283. This is out of a reported 51,564,141 cases. This calculates at a mortality rate of 1.575% or 1,575 deaths per 100K. This is much higher than 6.1 per 100K. There seems to be a disconnect here.

1. Are the CDC statistics as transmitted by twitter incorrect (I first saw them on Anthony Scaramucci’s feed, but have seen the statistics repeated on other feeds. It was labeled “Latest CDC statistic on deaths from known COVID cases”)?

2. Is the mortality rate of the Delta and Omicron variants much lower than the original virus?

3. Is this just the statistical anomaly created by the most vulnerable people having been vaccinated (or worse) and the unvaccinated are mostly younger and healthier, with a much lower mortality rate?

4. Did I make a math error here somewhere?

 

This is update number 69 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Missed doing one last week and this one is a day late. So this one covers 15 days. I am probably going to quit doing this on a weekly basis, unless there is demand for it. Instead update it a couple of times a month.

These last two weeks the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 6,806 new cases. The previous week was 940 new cases over the shortened week. The week before that it was 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. The week before that it was 446 new cases. Twenty-eight weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe has lost control of the situation, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 7K new cases for Wednesday (and 5K for Tuesdays). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that is still not completely under control. They are reporting 29K new cases Wednesday (and 22K on for Tuesday) but it is not as bad as it was two weeks ago. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January and they reached another peak on 17 July with 54K new cases in a day. It was down below 2K cases a day three months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fifth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India, Brazil and now Russia). They reported for France 29K new cases Wednesday (and 24K on Tuesday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has remained high with 22K new cases for Wednesday (and 20K for Tuesday). As for Germany it is only 4K new cases on Wednesday (and 2.5K cases on Tuesday) and for Russia it is 23K new cases on Wednesday (and 21K cases on Tuesday). Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 93K new cases on Wednesday (and 107K new cases on Tuesday). Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January and we hit another peak on 30 July of 195K. We did have it down to around 12K new cases a day in June.

In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Wednesday/Tuesday: China remains low (87/104), Japan continues to rise (14,114/12,045), South Korea is stabilizing (1,776/1,723), Taiwan (21/19 after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam has boomed (7,295/16,954), Singapore has stabilized (95/102), Australia continues to rise (302/253) and New Zealand remains low (1/2). Again, these are daily rates.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two less days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,827…..50,858……1,149
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,404…..15,727………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,972…..12,227………141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,612.….78,955……1,126
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………432………….8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….568….……574………..19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,292.….28,559……….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….46,069…..46,848……….514
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,325…….4,360……..…48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,223…….1,232……..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,644…..11,986…………83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,173.……2,230……..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,538…..72,596…….1,634
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……86,014.…87,313…….1,607
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…407,091….413,897……6,906

The Mortality Rate is 1.67%. There were 20 fatalities in the last two weeks compared to 6,806 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.29%, which is very low. The population known to have been infected is 7.71% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,717, new cases yesterday and 1,403 new cases on Tuesday. Two weeks ago it was 721 new cases on Tuesday, the week before that it was 346 new cases on Tuesday and the week before that it was 132 cases. Twenty-six weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,457 total cases (2,275 cases two weeks ago) and 10 deaths.

This is really only a five-day update, as I was delayed two days last week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. This is weekly update number 68 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 940 new cases over the shortened week. Last week is was 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. The week before last it was 446 new cases. Twenty-six weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe appears to be losing control of the situation again, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 3,555 new cases for Tuesday. The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to be sliding out of control. They are reporting 47K new cases Tuesday. This is new cases per day! Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day two months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fifth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India, Brazil and now Russia). They reported for France 18K new cases Tuesday. The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased dramatically to 27K for Tuesday. As for Germany it is only 1,626 new cases Tuesday and for Russia it is 23K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 43K new cases Tuesday, and it is continuing to rise. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. We did have it down to around 12K new cases a day in June, but it has been on the rise in July.

In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Tuesday: China (7), Japan continues to rise (3,836), South Korea continues to rise (1,784), Taiwan (24, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam continues to rise (5,427), Singapore is rising (195), Australia continues to rise (146) and New Zealand (6). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country that is hosting the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two less days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,616…..49,827…..1,146
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,372…..15,404…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,943…..11,972……..141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,465…..77,612….1,124
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430……….430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….576…….…568………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,207…..28,292…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,993.….46,069……..511
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,320…….4,325………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,222…….1,223………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,610.….11,644………83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,165.…..2,173………25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,396.…71,538…..1,628
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,836….86,014…..1,601
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…406,151…407,091…..6,886

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 4 fatalities in the last week compared to 940 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.43%. The low mortality rate appears to be caused by a lack of the reporting for the two counties in Maryland. The population known to have been infected is 7.59% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 721 new cases on Tuesday. Last week it was 346 new cases on Tuesday. The week before that it was 132 cases. Twenty-five weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,275 cases (2,246 last week) and 10 deaths.

Like the Coronavirus, this weekly blog post never seems to end. It was delayed two days this week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. Probably a limitation at my end. This is weekly update number 67 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. Last week it was 446 new cases. Twenty-five weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe appears to be losing control of the situation again, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 1,530 new cases for Tuesday (just to keep the reporting consistent, and 2,473 cases on Thursday). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to be sliding out of control. They are reporting 37K new cases Tuesday (and 49K new cases yesterday). This is new cases per day! Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day two months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). They reported for France 7K new cases Tuesday (and 11K new cases yesterday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased dramatically to 44K for Tuesday. As for Germany it is only 1,027 new cases Tuesday and for Russia it is up to 24K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 26K new cases Tuesday, and it is continuing to rise. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Tuesday: China (52 on 7/11), Japan is rising (2,396), South Korea continues to rise (1,615), Taiwan (29, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam is rising (2,744 and is up to 4K yesterday), Singapore (26), Australia is rising (106) and New Zealand (4). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7/16, 9:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two extra days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,417….49,616……1,145
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,321….15,372………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,900…..11,943……..141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,210….77,465…..1,124
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….574………576………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,100…..28,207…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,847.….45,993…….510
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,317……4,320………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,222……1,222…..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,555….11,610…..…83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,158…..2,165…..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,251….71,396…1,628
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,608….85,836…1,599
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…404,910…406,151…6,882

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 18 fatalities in the last week compared to 1,241 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%.  The population known to have been infected is 7.57% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 346 new cases on Tuesday. Last week it was 132 cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,246 cases (2,201 last week) and 10 deaths.

I am trying to get away from posting about the Coronavirus and spend my time talking about things like Afghanistan and insurgencies, but right now the Johns Hopkins Covid tracker is not opening, so I can’t do my weekly update. May have to wait until tomorrow to do that. So instead, let me point our a recent article in the Economist on excess deaths: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

A few highlights:
1. Mexico: Covid-19 deaths: 201,600; Excess deaths: 494,690

2. Russia: Covid-19 deaths: 97,200; Excess deaths: 494,610

3. Italy: Covid-19 deaths: 86,490; Excess deaths: 116,410

4. United States: Covid-19 deaths: 558,060; Excess deaths: 597,490

5. Britain: Covid-19 deaths:  150,920: Excess deaths 119.320

6. Belgium: Covid-19 deaths: 24,020; Excess deaths: 18,890

7. France: Covid-19 deaths: 102,290: Excess deaths: 81,690 

8. Germany: Covid-19 deaths; Excess deaths: 52,670

 

So, there appears to be:

1. A number of countries that grossly underreport Covid-19 deaths. Mexico and Russia are two of the more extreme cases.
2. There are a large number of countries where reported Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths are similar. This includes the United States and Spain.
3. There are a number of countries where they are reporting more Covid-19 deaths then they have excess deaths. This is Britain, Belgium, France, Italy and Germany.
4. And then there are countries like Japan and New Zealand where excess deaths is in the negative (for example New Zealand reports 30 Covid-19 deaths, while their excess deaths are -2,060. In the case of Japan is it -11,280 Excess deaths compared to 7,880 reported Covid-19 cases). There are 14 countries that report negative excess deaths during this time. This is not entirely surprising as shut downs reduce traffic, and vehicle accidents are a leading cause of death in most countries. 

China is not listed in this article.

Split off the material on mortality rates into a separate blog post. As is already known, countries do not report or catch every case of Coronavirus. It appears in the case of the United States, the actual number of cases is 3 to 4 times higher than what is reported. For other countries (like Russia), the disparity is even higher. Mortality rates might be a more useful metric for measuring differences between counties, but even these are not consistently reported. On the other hand, they can be checked by doing a comparison of “excess deaths” in 2020 and 2021 compared to previous years. So far I have checked excess deaths and blogged about it for two countries, the United States, which was close to the figure for reported mortality figures; and for Russia, which has an excess death figure way higher than their reported mortality figures. The suspicion is that Russia has been covering up or discouraging reporting of deaths from coronavirus.  Anyhow, knowing this is not perfect or consistently reported data, here is a comparative mortality rates between various countries.

First I list the “top ten.” I may have missed a smaller country that I have not been watching. I then list a couple of other European countries. Then I list Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Next is the listing of the four Scandinavian countries. This comparison is interesting as Sweden took a different approach (no lockdown) compared to the other three. Finally, I list some selected East Asian countries. Mortality is calculate as the number reported killed per million population. The higher the figure, they worst they are doing.

Morality rate (people killed per million population) by country:

Country    Population   Deaths     Rate

San Marino   0.034                 90    2,647

Brazil         213.4            525,892    2,464

Belgium       11.6              25,194    2,172

Italy              59.2            127,952    2,161

Colombia     51.0           110,019     2,157

Argentina     45.8              96,983    2,118

UK                67.1            128,532    1,915

Mexico       126.0            233,958    1,857

U.S.             332.0           605,944     1,825

Spain            47.4              80,952    1,708

Russia:       146.2

  reported:                       137,718       942

  excess:                          460,000    3,146

 

 

France          67.4           111,426     1,653

Germany      83.2              91,122    1,095

 

Canada         38.3              26,344       688

Australia       25.8                   910         35

New Zealand   5.1                    26            5

 

Sweden         10.4              14,639     1,408

Denmark         5.8                 2,539        438

Norway           5.4                    796         147

Finland           5.5                     976        177

 

China        1,411.8                 4,848            3

S. Korea         51.7                 2,033          39

Japan         126.2                 14,847        118

Taiwan          23.5                     715          30

Vietnam        97.6                       97            1

Singapore       5.7                       36            6

 

This does seem to be the most useful measure of response to the Coronavirus. As can be seen, some countries have done a much better job than others. This does not seem to be tied to wealth. It does seem to be related to leadership, or lack thereof. 

Excess deaths blog posts:

Excess Deaths and Coronavirus | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Excess Mortality in Russia | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This is weekly update number 66 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly increased to 446 new cases over the week. Last week it was 439 new cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Parts of Europe seem to be bringing the virus under control, but parts of Europe appear to be losing control. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 907 new cases for yesterday. The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to only be getting worse. They are reporting 29K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day a month ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). They reported for France 4K new cases yesterday. The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased to 14K for yesterday and is back on the rise. One wonders why Italy has gotten it under control but the U.K. and Spain are again losing control of the situation. As for Germany it is only 713 new cases yesterday and for Russia it is up to 23K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 24K new cases yesterday, which is twice as high as it was last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low: China (58), Japan (1,689), South Korea is rising (1,212), Taiwan (27, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam is rising (1,029 !) which is their highest reported daily rate ever, Singapore (10), Australia (30) and New Zealand (5). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics. Australia, which has a low rate, are still cancelling potentially spreader events like the Australian Grand Prix.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:22 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. 

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,347….49,417….1,142
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,301….15,321…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,882…..11,900…….139
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,136.…77,210….1,117
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430.…..…430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….572.………574………20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,097.….28,100…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,792.….45,847…….508
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,315.…..4,317………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,221.…..1,222………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,537.…11,555………82
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,154…….2,158………25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,171.…71,251…..1,626
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,509….85,608…..1,597
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…404,464…404,910…..6,864

The Mortality Rate is 1.70%. There were 9 fatalities in the last week compared to 446 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 2.02%.  The population known to have been infected is 7.55% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 132 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 148 cases. Twenty-three weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,201 cases (2,185 last week) and 10 deaths.

This is weekly update number 65 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 439 new cases over the week. Last week it was 455 new cases. Twenty-three weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 677 new cases for yesterday. The UK has had an upswing that seems to only be getting worse. They are reporting 20K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day a month ago. France has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Yesterday they reported for France 3K new cases yesterday. Their death count of 111,232 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, UK, and Italy). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,390 dead in a population of 67.1 million, Italy with 127,542 deaths in a population of 59.2 million, Belgium with 25,170 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million, Brazil with 515,985 deaths out of a population of 213.3 million, Mexico with 232,803 deaths out of a population of 126.0 million, Argentina with 93,668 deaths out of a population of 45.8 million) and Colombia with 105,934 deaths out of a population of 51.0 million. These seven countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (604,479 deaths in a population of 331.9 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only seven countries with a higher reported mortality rate, I suspect Russia, with a calculated excess deaths of 460,000 is also higher (see previous blog post). The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased to 7K for yesterday, for Germany it is only 569 and for Russia it is up to 20K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 12K new cases yesterday, which is about the same as the last two weeks. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low: China (low…can’t read the chart), Japan (1,401), South Korea (794), Taiwan (54 !), Vietnam (371 !), Singapore (354 !), Australia (42 !) and New Zealand (1). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. 

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,284…..49,347….1,141
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,299…..15,301…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,864…..11,882…….139
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,057…..77,136…1,115
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….429……….430………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….571……….572……..20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……..28,065…..28,097……283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..45,728…..45,792……506
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,312……4,315……..48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,219……1,221…..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,491…..11,537…..…82
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,150……2,154…..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,119…..71,171….1,623
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,437…..85,509….1,596
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….404,025…404,464….6,855

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 11 fatalities in the last week compared to 439 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 2.51% (which is high, but probably caused by the declining number of reported new cases). The population known to have been infected is 7.54% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 148 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 144 cases. Twenty-two weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,185 cases (2,181 last week) and 10 deaths.