Category Combat Databases

The World War I Cases from the Division-level Database

There are several major periods of covered by this 752 cases division-level database, so let us separate them out. The periods covered are:

Era ………………………………………………Number of Cases

Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905)……………….3

The Balkan Wars (1912)……………………………1

World War I (1914-1918)…………………………25

Between the wars (1938)………………………….1

World War II (1939-1945)………………………576

Arab-Israeli Wars (1956 – 1973)………………..51

Gulf War (1991)………………,………………….15

 

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991

Now, both World War I and World War II are so massive that with a diligent research effort, thousands of engagements could be assembled. This does take time. Our post-World War II includes almost every significant division-level engagement from the Arab-Israeli fighting of 1956, 1967, 1968 and 1973. The Gulf War category includes every significant division-level engagement from 1991. Let us look at each of them in turn:

World War I and others (30 cases)

 

Force Ratio……………………Percent Attacker Wins……………..Number of Cases

0.67 to 0.99-to-1………………..29%…………………………………………..7

1.01 to 1.47-to-1………………..11……………………………………………..9

1.58 to 1.80-to-1………………….0……………………………………………..2

2.00 to 2.13-to-1………………..67……………………………………………..3

2.50 to 2.80-to-1………………..67……………………………………………..3

3.00 to 3.20-to-1………………..33……………………………………………..3

4.04 to 4.38-to-1………………..50……………………………………………..2

6.32-to-1………………………..100……………………………………………..1

 

Note that the attacker is winning to majority of the time at two-to-one odds and higher. The 33% wins in the three-to-one category consists of one victory and two drawn engagements (Bazentin Ridge from the Somme and First Dardanelles Landing from Gallipoli). In both of these cases the attacker advanced, although the engagement is coded as a draw. These three cases do not make a strong argument. This data collection is too small to draw any real conclusions from. The database could certainly be expanded to thousands of cases given time and effort. We also have a collection of engagements from World War I at brigade- and battalion-level and a number of engagements above division-level. These will be explored later.

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991

Our most developed database through is our division-level database of 752 cases covering combat from 1904 to 1991. As this addresses modern combat, it is a useful database for such a test. Of those 752 cases, we have the forces ratios and outcome for 672 of them. All the engagements previously discussed from ETO in 1944 and Kharkov and Kursk in 1943 are drawn from this database. As such, there is some overlap between these 672 cases and the 116 cases from ETO and 73 cases from the Eastern Front previously used. The data shows a very clear pattern related to force ratios.

Division-level Engagements 1904-1991 (672 cases)

Force Ratio…………………..Percent Attacker Wins………………Number of Cases

0.20 to 0.20-to-1………………..0%………………………………………………….2

0.25 to 04.9-to-1………………22…………………………………………………….9

0.50 to 0.99-to-1………………42…………………………………………………..77

1.00 to 1.49-to-1………………55…………………………………………………150

1.50 to 1.99-to-1………………59…………………………………………………123

2.00 to 2.49-to-1………………71…………………………………………………..56

2.50 to 2.99-to-1………………83…………………………………………………..53

3.00 to 3.49-to-1………………69…………………………………………………..48

3.50 to 3.98-to-1………………77…………………………………………………..30

4.06 to 5.87-to-1………………65…………………………………………………..66

6.06 to 7.90-to-1………………88…………………………………………………..17

8.20 to 17.87-to-1……………100…………………………………………………..22

 

This table drives home in spades the problem with the U.S. Army current interpretation of the three-to-one rule (50% chance of defender success). To start with, the attacker starts winning over half the time at 1.00 to 1.49-to-1 odds. By the time they get to 2.50 to 2.99-to-1 odds they are winning 83% of the time. It is quite clear from this data that the U.S. Army rule is wrong.

Now, this data is skewed a little bit by the inclusion of engagements with “limited action” or only “limited attack.” They include engagements where the attacker has a significant force ratio but conducted only an initial probing attack of battalion size. Sometimes those attacks did not succeed. So the success rate of some the higher odds engagements would actually be higher if these were eliminated. So, we ended up culling 102 of these engagements from the above table to produce the following table.  There is not a big difference in the results between this tighter table of 570 cases and the previous table of 672 cases. The primary difference is that the attacker tends to be more successful in all categories. All the culled engagements were from World War II.

Division-level Engagements, 1904-1991 (570 cases) – culled data set

 

Force Ratio………………….Percent Attacker Wins……………….Number of Cases

0.20 to 0.20-to-1………………..0%…………………………………………………2

0.25 to 04.9-to-1………………25……………………………………………………8

0.50 to 0.99-to-1………………52…………………………………………………..62

1.00 to 1.49-to-1………………62…………………………………………………133

1.50 to 1.99-to-1………………66…………………………………………………108

2.00 to 2.49-to-1………………80………………………………………………….49

2.50 to 2.99-to-1………………83………………………………………………….48

3.00 to 3.49-to-1………………70………………………………………………….40

3.50 to 3.98-to-1………………76………………………………………………….29

4.06 to 5.87-to-1………………73………………………………………………….55

6.06 to 7.90-to-1………………88………………………………………………….17

8.20 to 17.87-to-1……………100………………………………………………….17

56.20-109.98-to-1……………100…………………………………………………..2

 

Needless to say, this tighter data set is even further biased against the published U.S. Army three-to-one rule.

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 49 U.S. Civil War battles

From 1st Alabama Cavalry, USV website (www.1stalabamacavalryusv.com). Alexander Lawrence was from Fayette County, Alabama and fought for the Union with the 1st Alabama Cavalry

As the three-to-one rule of thumb appears to have evolved out of the American Civil War (although not as published in FM 6-0), then we should probably look at just our Civil War battles in our database.

Among those 243 cases are 49 cases from the American Civil War. As the three-to-one rule may have evolved from that experience, let us looking at just those cases:

 Force Ratio……………………Percent Attacker Wins……………….Number of Cases

0.44 to 0.48-to-1…………………0%………………………………………………3

0.53 to 0.97-to-1………………..18……………………………………………….11

1.00 to 1.47-to-1………………..36……………………………………………….14

1.53 to 1.96-to-1………………..25……………………………………………….12

2.10 to 2.31-to-1………………..50…………………………………………………6

3.00-to-1……………………….100…………………………………………………1

5.00-to-1……………………….100…………………………………………………1

15.05-to-1……………………..100…………………………………………………1

 

The American Civil War is a very good test case for such an examination. Both officer corps were primarily trained at West Point (the U.S. military academy); both armies fought in the same style and doctrine; they used most of the same weapons, including the same muskets and same artillery; they were similar in culture; and they were similar in training, doctrine, background and capability. While some historical mythology has tried to make the southern Americans better fighters, it is hard to accept the argument that a farmer from North Carolina is a different, more motivated or a more capable fighter than a farmer from Pennsylvania. Most of the United States was rural. There wre also units raised to fight for the north from all of the southern states. This is about an equal comparison between two opponents that one is going to find.

The end results from these two tests are that the three-to-one rule as recorded in FM 6-0 clearly does not apply. In the case of the Civil War data at 2.10 to 2.31-to-1 odds the attacker is winning half the time. Where does one get the notion that at 3.00-to-1 odds the defender will win half the time? What historical data established that?

So the U.S. Army version of the three-to-one (meaning defender wins half the time) does not show up in the almost 400 years of history that we are examining here and does not show up in the American Civil War.

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 243 Battles 1600-1900

Now, at the time I wrote War by Numbers, I was not aware of this sentence planted in FM 6-0 and so therefore did not feel a need to respond to the “3-to-1 rule.” It is a rule of thumb, not completely without value, that had been discussed before. I thought this issue was properly understood in the U.S. analytical and defense community, therefore I did not feel a need to address it further. It turns out that I do. So, let me take a moment to tap into our databases and properly address this using all the resources at my disposal.

First of all, The Dupuy Institute has a database of 243 engagements from 1600-1900 called the Battles Data Base (BaDB). These are almost all field battles, where the two sides deployed their forces of tens of thousands of people and resolve their dispute that day. Of the 243 battles, only 40 of them last longer than a day. The largest engagement has the attacker fielding 365,000 men (Leipzig, 1813) and the smallest engagement had the defender fielding but 350 men (Majuba Hill, 1881).

As this rule of thumb evolved out of the U.S. Civil War, then an examination of historical field battles from 1600-1900 is particularly relevant. Looking at the force ratio for these battles shows:

Force Ratio…………………..Percent Attacker Wins………………..Number of Cases

0.26 to 04.9-to-1………………54%……………………………………………13

0.50 to 0.98-to-1………………54………………………………………………81

1.00 to 1.47-to-1………………56………………………………………………71

1.50 to 1.96-to-1………………63………………………………………………38

2.00 to 2.44-to-1………………50………………………………………………16

2.58 to 2.94-to-1………………57………………………………………………..7

3.00 to 3.43-to-1…………….100………………………………………………..5

3.75 to 3.76-to-1………………..0………………………………………………..2

4.00 to 4.93-to-1………………75………………………………………………..4

7.78 to 16.82-to-1……………..67………………………………………………..6

 

The pattern here is not particularly clear, as low odds attack, where the attacker is outnumbered, succeed over half the time, as do attacks at higher odds. Some of this is due to the selection of battles, some of this is due to the lack of regular trained armies, and some of this is due to the attacker choosing to attack because they have advantages in morale, training, experience, position, etc. that outweigh the numbers. But, the argument that is made in FM 6-0 that based upon historical data at three-to-one odds the defender wins 50% of the time is clearly not shown. For example, in this data set there are 12 cases between the odds of 2.50 to 3.50-to-1. Of those 12 cases, the attacker wins in 9 of them (75%). The three cases where the defender wins are: 1) Battle of Buena Vista in 1847 where Santa Anna’s Mexican Army attacked Zachary Taylor’s American Army at 2.94-to-1, 2) Battle of Inkeman in 1854 where the Russian Army attacked the French and British armies in Crimea at 2.63-to-1, and 3) Battle of Belfort in 1871 where the French Army attack the German Army at 2.75-to-1. One could certainly argue that in these three cases, the defenders held advantages in training, experience and overall combat effectiveness.

Next post will address the 49 American Civil War battles in our database.

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule

Various Three-to-one rules of thumbs have existed in the U.S. Army and in writings possibly as early as the American Civil War (1861-1865). These are fine as “rules of thumb” as long as one does not take them seriously and understands what they really mean. But, unfortunately, we have now seen something that is a loose rule of thumb turned into a codified and quantified rule. This is annoyingly overstating its importance and as given in U.S. Army manuals, is patently false.

The U.S. Army has apparently codified the “three-to-one rule” in its documentation and has given it a value. In the 2014 edition of FM 6-0, paragraph 9-103, it states that “For example, historically, defenders have over a 50 percent probability of defeating an attacking force approximately three times their equivalent strength.” This statement, on the surface, simply is incorrect. For example, the following table from my book War by Numbers is drawn from a series of 116 division-level engagements in France in 1944 against the Germans (see War by Numbers, page 10) They show the following relationship between force ratio and outcome:

European Theater of Operations (ETO) Data, 1944

 

Force Ratio………………..Result…………………Percent Failure…Number of cases

0.55 to 1.01-to-1.00………Attack Fails…………………..100%……………….5

1.15 to 1.88-to-1.00………Attack usually succeeds……21%………………..48

1.95 to 2.56-to-1.00………Attack usually succeeds……10%………………..21

2.71-to-1.00 and higher…Attacker Advances…………….0%……………….. 42

 

Now these engagements are from fighting between the U.S., UK and Germany in France and Germany in 1944. These are engagements between forces of roughly equal competence. As can be seen, based upon 42 division-level engagements, in all cases of attacks at three-to-one (more specifically 2.71-to-1 and greater), the attacker advanced. Meaning in all cases of attacks at three-to-one, the attacker won. This directly contradicts the statement in FM 6-0, and contradicts it based upon historical data.

This is supplemented by the following two tables on the next page of War by Numbers. The first table shows the German performance when attacking Soviet units in 1943.

Germans attacking Soviets (Battles of Kharkov and Kursk), 1943

 

Force Ratio………………..Result………………….Percent Failure…Number of cases

0.63 to 1.06-to-1.00………Attack usually succeeds……..20%……………………..5

1.18 to 1.87-to-1.00………Attack usually succeeds……….6%……………………17

1.91-to-1.00 and higher…Attacker Advances……………….0%……………………21

 

The next table shows the Soviet performance when attacking German units in 1943:

Soviets attacking Germans (Battles of Kharkov and Kursk), 1943

 

Force Ratio………………Result…………………..Percent Failure…Number of cases

0.40 to 1.05-to-1…………Attack usually fails…………70%……………………10

1.20 to 1.65-to-1.00…….Attack often fails…………….50%……………………11

1.91 to 2.89-to-1.00…….Attack sometimes fails…….44%……………………..9

 

These charts are from the fighting around Kharkov in February, March and August of 1943 and the fighting during the Battle of Kursk in July 1943. It is 73 engagements between the German and Soviet armies.

Now, there is a clear performance difference between the German and the Soviet armies at this time. This is discussed in considerable depth in War by Numbers and will not be addressed here. But, what it amounts to is that the German Army has an advantage in the casualty exchange and that advantage also shows up in the outcomes of the battles, as show above. If they attacked at two-to-one odds are greater, they would win. The Soviets attacking at the same odds would win only 56 percent of the time. Clearly, at the division-level, in a unit to unit comparison, the Germans were two or three times better than their Soviet opponents.

Still, even in the worse case, which is the Soviets attacking the Germans, we do not get to the claim made in FM 6-0, which is the defender won 50% of the time when attacked at three-to-one. In fact, the Soviets managed to win 50% of the time when attacking at 1.20 to 1.65-to-1. Something is clearly wrong with the statement in FM 6-0.

Now, at the time I wrote War by Numbers, I was not aware of this sentence planted in FM 6-0 and so therefore did not feel a need to respond to the “three-to-one rule.” It is a rule of thumb, not completely without value, that had been discussed before (see Dupuy, Understanding War, pages 31-37). I thought this issue was properly understood in the U.S. analytical and defense community, therefore I did not feel a need to address it further. It turns out that I do. So, I will take a moment to tap into our databases and properly address this using all the resources at my disposal. This will be in subsequent blog posts.

So What Were the Assault Guns Doing at Prokhorovka?

There were three assault gun battalions in the SS Panzer Corps at Prokhorovka, one in each of the three SS Panzer Grenadier Divisions (Leibstandarte, Das Reich, Totenkopf). They all started the offensive (on 4 July) with 34, 33 and 28 Sturmgeschuetz IIIs (in that order). These “tanks” were armed with the 75mm L48 guns (the same as the Panzer IVs) and has 80mm of frontal armor (which is more than the Panzer IVs, which had 80mm for the glacis but only 50mm for the turret).

As of the evening of 11 July I have them with 10 operational in the Leibstandarte (with one destroyed and 9 damaged that day), 27 operational in Das Reich (with one destroyed that day), and 21 operational in Totenkopf. So where were they and what did they do this day?

Well, according to multiple Russian accounts, there were some assault guns opposite the XVIIII Tank Corps. This is specifically stated as follows:

From: Combat Report #38, 0330, July 13, 1943

In attempting to reach the Belgorod highway, XVIII Tank Corps unexpectedly ran into the enemy’s well-organized resistance, which featured buried tanks and assault guns along the line ht. 217.9-ht. 241.6

From: Account of 18th TC’s Combat Activities, July 12-24 1943:

By the end of the day the enemy attempts a frontal tank attack from the Kozlovka-Greznoye area, with the simultaneous attempt bypass the corps; units from the Kozlovka-Polezheyva direction, using Tiger tanks and self-propelled guns and intensively bombarding our lines from the air.

XVIII Tank Corps encountered the enemy’s well-organized and powerful anti-tank defense, consisting of tanks and assault guns along the line of ht. 217.9-ht. 241.6.

From: Operational Report #1, 1900, July 12, 1943, 5th GTA

At 1400 the corps repulsed an enemy counterattack by 50 tanks from the Bororoditskiye area, and by 13 “Tigers” from the area of ht. 226.6

The Corps’ further advance was contained by the enemy’s powerful artillery and mortar fire from the Greznoye area, and by tank fire from the Bogoroditskoye area.

From: Operational Report #2, 0700, July 13, 1943, 5th GTA

18th TC, with 80th Gds Mortar Rgt, by the end of July 12 had taken the eastern outskirts of Vasilyevka, but its further advance was halted by the enemy’s artillery and tank from the area of the western outskirts of Vasilyevka. The corps is on the line Petrovka-Mikhalovka and has consolodated and is regrouping.

From: 5th Guards Tank Army’s Combat Activities from July 7-24, 1943 (compiled September 30, 1943)

In Andreyevka 181st TBde met a large column of enemy tanks. As a result of the battle that followed, the Germans suffered heavy casualties and were thrown back on Kozlovka.

The corps, on the line ht. 279.9-3 km southwest of Kozlovka-ht. 241.6, encountered heavy enemy fire resistance from assault guns, tanks buried in the ground, and fierce aerial bombardment, which made any further advance impossible.

This is all discussed in this post:

So What Were the LSSAH Tigers Doing?

According to Ben Wheatley, the Leibstandarte SS Assault Gun Battalion was in reserve south of the Stalinskii Sovkhoz and later supported the LSSAH Marders and 1st PzGrRgt around the farm area. This locale is a little over 3 kilometers from ht. 241.6 where the Tigers are. Waiting for the source on this, but if so, then the LSSAH assault gun battalion is accounted for.

The Das Riech SS Assault Gun Battalion was operating with Das Reich, so out of the area of our discussion right now (which is the XVIII and XXIX Tank Corps attack).

The location of the Totenkopf SS Assault Gun Battalion is not given in any of the material I have. It may have been on the north side of the Psel River. These panzer grenadier divisions often lumped the assault gun battalions with the reconnaissance battalion. The Totenkopf reconnaissance battalion was at one point on the division left (west) flank and south of the Psel, but not sure where it was on this day.

Also of note, the Leibstandarte reconnaissance battalion ended up defending (and being penetrated) by the attacking Soviet tanks of the XVIII Tank Corps.

Congressional Research Report on Uses of Armed Forces

I have recently been perusing the Congressional Research Report on Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2019, updated July 17, 2019. It is here: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42738.pdf

I do have some real heartburn with this report. For example, for the period from 1950-1959 they report six incidents of the use of U.S. armed forces. They are Korean War (1950-53), Formosa (1950-55), China (1954-55), Egypt (1956), Lebanon (1958) and The Caribbean (1959-1960). No Vietnam.

On 23 October 1954 President Eisenhower offered military aid to Vietnamese tin-pot dictator Prime Minister Diem. From 1957 through 1959 the United States had around 700 troops deployed to Vietnam. In 1957 we suffered our first casualties in 1959 lost our first two soldiers in Vietnam. Yet their first listing for Vietnam starts in 1964.

It does appears that the report uses very different standards over reporting for instances from decade to decade. For example, from 1950-1959 they report six uses of U.S. armed forces abroad, while in 2000-2019 they report 108. Many of the type of instances they report later in their list do not appear to be reported in the previous decades.

For example, the last instance listed on page 45 is the signature of a “defense-cooperation agreement” with Lithuania for 2019. Yet, the list does not record the United States joining NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which eventually grew to 29 members (including Lithuania). It is clear that we have signed dozens of these types of agreements from 1945-1979, and yet they are not listed back then, but are now being listed in 2019.

In another extreme example, they only have three instance reports for Vietnam, one covering 1964-1973 and two reports for 1975. Yet they have 32 instances for Bosnia from 1993-2006.

It is clear that different standards and levels of research are being used for events in the last few decades on that list than are used for events in the first few decades.

It appears that the list over time has been updated with considerable detail over the last couple of decades without a corresponding backdating to make sure that the listing is reporting the same type of events in the same detail from 1945-1979. Therefore, one cannot directly compare the number of instances from previous decades to the more recent decades because they are based upon a different standard and detail of reporting.

Around 2000, the report also appears to start listing the instances in more detail, and in 2014, they start footnoting the source for each of their listings. So the report is clearly expanding in scope and improving in detail, but this means that it cannot and should not be used for comparisons over time. Still, the absence of major events like the involvement of the United States armed forces in Vietnam before 1964 is a major shortfall. It is clear that this report needs to be properly updated for past events.

As this is the tax payer funded, government supervised Congressional Research Service report, I really do expect better from them.

U.S. Senate and Model Validation – Comments

This is a follow-up to our blog post:

Have They Been Reading Our Blog?

This rather significant effort came out of the blue for us, and I gather a whole lot of others in the industry. The actual proposed law is here:

U.S. Senate on Model Validation

Some people, we gather, are a little nervous about this effort. On the other hand, Clinton Reilly, an occasional commenter on this blog and the Managing Director of Computer Strategies Pty Ltd, Sydney Australia, nicely responds to these concerns with the following post:

I would not be too concerned by the prospect of more rigorous validation. I am sure it represents a major opportunity to improve modelling practices and obtain the increased funding that will be required to support the effort.

One of the first steps will be the development of a set of methodologies that will be tailored to testing the types of models required. I am sure that there will be no straight jacketing or enforced uniformity as it is obvious the needs served by the models are many and varied and cannot be met by a “one size fits all” approach.

Provided modellers prepare themselves by developing an approach to validation that is required by their user community they will be in a good position to work with the investigating committee and secure the support and funding needed.

In the end, validation is not a “pass-fail” test to be feared, it is a methodology to improve the model and improve confidence in the model results, and to fully understand the strengths and weaknesses of a model. This is essential if you are going to be using the model for analytical uses, and practically essential even if you are using it for training.

So this is an opportunity not a threat. It is a much needed leap forward.

Let us begin work on developing an approach to validation that suits our individual modelling requirements so that we can present them to the review committee when it asks for input.

Now, my experience on this subject, which dates back to managing the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB) in 1987, is that many of the U.S. Military Operations Research community will not see it as “…an opportunity, not a threat.” We shall see.

You might want to pre-order the book

By the way, if you pre-order The Battle of Prokhorovka through amazon.com it is selling for $28.43: Buy from Amazon The list price on the hardcover is  $44.95. I do not know what price it will be listed at on 1 June 2019 (nor do I have any involvement or say in these matters).

The book can obtained from Stackpole at: Stackpole Books

Or from Amazon.com at: Buy from Amazon

The Battle of Prokhorovka book — why?

My original contract back in 1999 to prepare the Kursk book was for a single book of 450 pages. During the writing process….the book grew. This is discussed in this article: http://www.aberdeenbookstore.com/the-largest-history-book-ever

When I realized how large the book was, I contacted the publisher and discussed the issue with him. I suggested that we go ahead and complete the large book I was writing and then go back and do an abridged version. He graciously agreed, but unfortunately I was unable to complete the original book in 2003/2004 (although it was mostly done) due to my work at The Dupuy Institute, magnified by a war or two going on.

So, when I was finally able to get back to this book (thanks to government budget cuts and sequestration), I was left with an original book of 1,662 pages. Clearly there was a need for a smaller book.

This is not that book. This book is the updated chapters of the original book that focus on the fighting by the SS Panzer Corps, III Panzer Corps, parts of the Sixth Guards Army, Sixty-Ninth Army, Fifth Guards Army, Fifth Guard Tank Army and parts of the Seventh Guards Army from 9 to 17 July 1943. As such, it is 40% of the original book sectioned off as a separate stand alone book.

I could do four such books from my original book. This is the first of these books. I am currently finishing up a second such book (Aces at Kursk: The Belgorod Offensive Air War). I could do two more books along that line (Battle of Tolstoye Woods and The Belgorod Offensive), although I am not sure that I ever will. It depends on demand, sales, the publisher’s interest, my time, and my mood.

I may also get around to writing a single 300-page book summarizing the offensive in the south. We shall see. There are a lot of other projects I am also considering.

The book can obtained from Stackpole at: Stackpole Books

Or from Amazon.com at: Buy from Amazon