Category China

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

In my morbid fascination with casualty rates it is hard for me not look at the statistics on the coronavirus and not calculate morbidity rates. Here are the stats:

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………Rate

World Wide…………………82,548…….2,810……………3.41%

China………………………..78,497…….2,744……………3.50%

S. Korea……………………..1,766…………13……………0.74%

Italy……………………………..528…………14…………..2.65%

Iran……………………………..245…………26…………10.61%

Japan…………………………..189…………..3……………1.59%
Singapore………………………93

Hong Kong……………………..92……………2……………2.17

United States…………………..60

Kuwait…………………………..43

Thailand………………………..40

Bahrain…………………………33

Taiwan………………………….32……………1…………….3.13

Germany……………………….26

Australia………………………..23

Malaysia……………………….22

France………………………….18……………2…………….11.11

Vietnam………………………..16

Philippines………………………3……………1…………….33.33

Cruise ships…………………705……………4………………0.57

Other countries……………..117

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE as of 9:03.03 this morning. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Now, it is suspected that the number of cases are underreported. There are people that get sick and recover that are never reported. Don’t know how many this is. Suspect that the population of unreported cases exceeds the population of reported cases. Have no data to support that suspicion.

A few takeaways are:

  1. Mortality rate worldwide is around 3.49%
    1. If the number of unreported cases is equal to the number of reported cases, then the real mortality rate is half that.
  2. Mortality rate is China is 3.50%
  3. Mortality rate in South Korea is 0.74%.
    1. This is a significant difference
    2. It may be a result of better health care
    3. It may be a result of early detection and quick treatment
    4. It may be a result of better statistical collection on number of cases.
    5. Is probably a combination of all three.
    6. The point it, it is less than 1% with a significant number of cases. So this is the standard that is achievable.
  4. Mortality rate of Italy is 2.65%
    1. Italian health care is good…so…
    2. Does this mean that there are still a lot of unreported cases out there?
      1. So Italy may have over a 1,000 cases?
  5. Mortality rate of Iran is 10.61%
    1. Now the Iranian health care system may not be as good as S.Korea and Italy…but….
    2. This strongly indicates that there is a large number of unreported cases.
      1. Maybe also over a 1,000 cases?
  6. Just for reference the mortality rate of the flu is something like 0.1%.

 

While S. Korea and Italy are tragic and concerning, what really scares me is the uncontrolled outbreak in Iran. If there are over a thousand cases and it is not locked down and controlled, then it can spread, both in Iran and out of Iran. Iran’s neighbor to the west in Iraq (which reports 6 cases). Iraq is a country that is not always in good order. To their west is Syria, which is in civil war. What happens if the coronavirus arrives in a country in civil war. What containment is there? What government run health care is there?

To the east of Iran is Afghanistan (which reports 1 case) and Pakistan (which reports 2 cases). What happens if it spreads there? Afghanistan is in civil war as are parts of Pakistan. Are the Taliban really going to implement thorough and complete containment and provide proper healthcare?

So while the virus may be able to be contained in places like S. Korea and Italy, is it going to be contained in places like Iran, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan? Will this then become a permanent source of further transmission of the virus to the rest of the world, generating periodic outbreaks elsewhere and forcing systematic containment efforts for years to come?

Hard to Ignore the Coronavirus

It is hard to ignore the Coronavirus. It is kind of the biggest game changer right now, not only for the tragic mortalities, but for its economic impact and as a result, for its impact on international relations and national security. While its rate of expansion in China seems to be slower (see my previous post), it is appearing in various “hot spots” across the world. As of the moment I am writing this (after 1:00 PM Feb. 24) there were 80,350 confirmed cases worldwide and 2,705 deaths…assuming all the reporting is complete and correct. Right now in South Korea there are 977 cases and 10 deaths, in Italy there are 283 cases and 7 deaths, in Japan there are 170 cases and 1 death (and 3 from the cruise ships) and in Iran there are reported 95 cases and 16 deaths. There is a sense that the Iranian figures are low and the real numbers are higher. So outside of China there are pockets of disease in multiple locations.

See: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Beyond the immediate dangers the virus poses, there are the problems and cost of containment. China, in its efforts to control it, effectively shut down entire cities. Is that what Korea, Italy and Iran are going to have to do? This is a major economic hit.

The markets on Monday clearly picked up on this with the Dow Jones dropping over a thousand points yesterday. It is down 500 800 almost 900 points today. Markets in South Korea, Italy, etc. are getting hit even worse. Oil prices are also declining. Right now they are over $50 a barrel but they could decline to the low $40s. The exchange rate for the ruble has also declined to 65 to a dollar. Their economy and government budget is heavily impacted by oil prices. My post from 28 January:

The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?

This is clearly going to affect the world markets through this quarter and probably into the next quarter. If it is fully contained, then the economies will start to recover. The question is, can this virus be fully contained? Because of the rather “stealthy” way it spreads, with people apparently able to spread it before they show symptoms of the disease, it may take a while to fully contain. Suspect these are not the last outbreaks. Each outbreak then produces another round of costly containment efforts.

It has been estimated that the economic cost of the SARS virus of 2002-2004, which only included 8,098 documented cases and 774 deaths in 17 countries, cost 1.05% of the Chinese GDP in 2003. Hong Kong took the biggest with a 2.63% loss in GDP in 2003 while the U.S. economy had a negative 0.07% effect. It is clear that this virus is going to have a lot bigger impact. Right now, it is 80,350 cases, 2,690 cases outside of mainland China, and 2,705 deaths (with 42 of them outside of China).

One estimate is here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92473/

The Table 2.2 is here (and a lot less blurry): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92473/table/ch2.t2/?report=objectonly

 

The Spread of the Coronavirus does seem to be Slowing

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This graph is from Johns Hopkins. I gather the figures are only as good as the reporting from China, and that I have not looked into.

The top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 21,250 out of 77,917 cases (and 2,361 deaths). The bottom line of “other locations” (meaning outside of China)

A related news article is here:  China reports fall in new coronavirus cases but concerns grow over rising global spread

Coronavirus update

Well, I was concerned about the Coronavirus from the start, and so far, it unfortunately seems to be living up to my concerns. This morning, according to the reported stats…..there have been 24,607 reported cases (which is about 3 times as many as reported SARS cases) and 494 deaths. The concern and question is about the trends….is the disease expanding linearly or geometrically? Here is the latest graph from the John Hopkins University site:

This is from this site: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Of course this is assuming that the reported statistics are correct. There is some question about that: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-arrested-doctors-warned-coronavirus-111252311.html

To summarize:

  1. Last December eight doctors and medical technicians became concerned about a developing SARS-like disease. They were arrested on 1 January 2020 for having “spread rumors.”
  2. There is still on-going censorship efforts concerning the virus in China.
  3. Not discussed in this article, but there are people claiming there could be over 75,000 cases: https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-could-be-over-75000-research-model-reveals-/

The tradition is that these communist governments tend to initially try to cover-up and minimize these disasters (i.e. SARS, Chernobyl). Not that democratic governments also don’t sometimes try to minimize the scale of these problems, but the free press does help keep them truthful.

 

 

Interesting Article on the Chinese Government

Interesting article on the Chinese government and the Chinese public perceptions of it. From the New York Times: Virus Crisis Exposes Cracks in China’s Facade of Unity

The main point of the article is that the government has already come under criticism for the crisis that has developed in Wunan. One post on a social media site stated:

The current system looks so vibrant yet it’s shattered completely by a governance crisis. We game up our rights in exchange for protection. But what kind of protection is it? Where will our long-lasting political apathy lead us?

“The post was shared over 7,000 times and liked 27,000 times before censors deleted it,” according to the article.

This reinforces the argument I was making in the fourth point, Internal Stability in China, in yesterday’s post.

Map of Coronavirus

This link leads to a map of the Coronavirus. It is from Johns Hopkins University: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As of 11:00 PM 28 January they were reporting 6,057 confirmed cases and 132 deaths.

 

P.S. As of 9:00 PM 29 January they were reporting 7,783 confirmed cases and 170 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

P.P.S. As of 9:30 PM 30 January they were reporting 9,776 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?

Again, this is not my area of expertise, since I’m mostly into Pfizer stock speculation and such, but as the Coronavirus does not seem to be going away any time soon, probably worthwhile to look at the effects of such a disease if it continues to expand, beyond the issues of health and mortality.

Economic Effects in China: Right now, around 60 million people are in partial or full lock down. The current population of China is over 1.4 billion, so this is 4% of the population. So lets say that their economic activity is reduced by at least 20% (it may be more). Let us say this is a ripple effect that impacts three times that amount of people (as they certainly trade with others). The most immediate economic impact of the virus is on consumption and travel. So 0.12 x 0.8 = 0.96 or basically a 1% decline in the Chinese economy/growth rate. The Chinese economy is growing at around 6% a year. Now, if this virus lasts for three months, it is simply a blip on the charts. If it lasts the better part of a year, we will see a reduction in the growth rate of the economy. On the other hand, if the virus continues to spread and more people and cities are on lock down, then the economic impact could be more significant.

Note: These are all the companies who have shut down operations….

International Economics: The Chinese economy now makes up 16% of the world economy. They are certainly the manufacturing hub in many industries (for example, my first Kursk book was printed there). So, any disruption in the Chinese economy will result in a decline worldwide. These fears were amplified this last Monday morning when the DOW declined by over 500 points, which is almost a 2% drop. Now it was recorded somewhat and as of 1:00 PM on Monday was at 337 (1.16%). Still this shows the economic impact on the markets. Of course, the market going down 1 or 2% does not mean the economy is in decline, but it does indicate that this is a global concern.

Oil Prices: U.S. oil prices were down on Monday morning by nearly 2% also to $53.13 a barrel. Now oil prices directly affect consumers as we can see the fluctuations from day to day at the gas pump, but…..if also significantly impacts the economy of Russia, which relies heavily upon taxes on oil and natural gas for its budget. As of 1 PM on Monday, the exchange rate for rubles to dollars went from 62 rubles to 63 rubles.

Internal Stability in China: Keep in mind that China had a major internal unrest incident in 1989 with Tiananmen Square. They have been hesitant since then to run over people with tanks. More to the point, the continued growth of the Chinese economy has dampened much of the political and internal unrest, and will probably continue to do so as long as the economy continues to grow. Many people (and I am one of them) does consider that the development of a capitalist economy under control of a communist regime is a fundamental contradiction that at some point will lead to political unrest. This was the case 30 years ago, and if the economy stagnates or decline, I have no doubt will be the case again. Added to that, right now there has been an extended pro-democracy protest in the Chinese city of Hong Kong that has not been resolved. Is this an isolated case, being a former British colony; or is it the first of many others? I do get the sense that the stability of China is not guaranteed and could be quickly become an issue if the economy declines.

Internal Stability of Russia: The Russian economy is tied to oil prices, maybe not as much as Iran and Saudi Arabia, but enough that this is a big issue. In 2012 oil, gas and petroleum products account for over 70% of their total exports. Russia already had one extended economic decline from 2014-2015 where is actually saw its GDP decline by 3.7% in 2015. This is significant. We do note today that the when the stock markets declined by over 1%, the price of oil declined by 2% and the ruble declined by 2% also. So……what happens if the decline continues? The Russian GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2019. The next Russian election is in 2024, so they have some time to ride out any problems, but as they are busy changing the constitution into who knows what; then if we actually do see a significant decline in the Russian economy over an extended time, then the elections, or even internal stability, could become an issue.

Ukraine and sanctions and such: Not unrelated to the Russian economic problems are the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European as a result of its actions in Ukraine, including the seizure of Crimea. This have been an issue since then, both in Russia and in U.S. politics. Needless to say, if the Russian economy declines, these issues will remain at the forefront.

Iran and Iraq: Cannot help but notice that Iran has a lot of internal turmoil and unrest, in addition to occasional head-to-head confrontations with the U.S. The Iranian economy is also heavily tied to the price of oil. Nothing fuels a protest movement like a declining economy. One could also say the same of Iraq. Of course, we have troops in Iraq.

Plague?

This is far from my area of expertise, but I am following the spread of the Coronavirus with concern. It has already killed over 50 80 106 people in China, forced them to shut down a city of 11 million people (Wuhan); and now there are three five cases in the U.S., three in France, almost 2,000 more than 2,700 confirmed cases in China (more than 4,500 on Tuesday, 28 Jan.), more than 40 confirmed cases outside of China in 13 places (more than 70 confirmed cases in 17 places on Tuesday, 28 Jan.). They say nearly 60 million people in China are on partial or full lock down in multiple cities. What we know

This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonders how bad it is going to be before it is contained.

There could also be a significant economic cost. Considering that nearly 60 million people are on partial or full lock down….what does this do to production and work? As the virus spread, what is the economic cost? One can envision a scenario where Chinese economy stalls or declines and there is criticism of the government response (which is almost inevitable if this continues to expand). Does this created additional unrest or internal problems in China? Does this further impact the Chinese economy? Would a decline of the Chinese economy (which is 16% of the world economy) result in a stalling or decline of many other economies in the world? One could spin out a downward scenario here.

Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague”  since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920. According to some accounts it affected up to 500 million people and killed 50 million or more. More recently was SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) from 2002-2004. This came out of China, transferred to humans from bats in Yunnan province. It produced 8,098 documented cases resulting in 774 deaths in 17 countries. It was completely contained and no new cases have been reported since 2004. There has also been MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) or the “Camel flu” from 2012 to the present which has affected almost 2,000 people with a mortality rate of 36% among those diagnosed! It was not just confined to the Middle East with an outbreak in South Korea in 2015 that killed 36. There may be a large number of milder undiagnosed cases. This disease is still not contained.

The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.

 

 

P.S. In the news Monday morning: Dow falls more than 400 points as the coronavirus outbreak worsens

 

Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2

So, China has 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK) to enforce it’s claims to the South China sea. All the nations that have competing claims (Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam) have a total of 4 destroyers, 43 frigates and 17 subs (SSK). This is not an even match. But, there are a few other players in the immediate region and there are a few other players in the Pacific that may have some influence. Lets look at them:

Also in the area are the following countries:

…………………….Singapore…..Thailand…..Cambodia

Small carrier………………………….1

Destroyers……….0
Frigates……………6………………..7

Corvettes…………6…………………7

Littoral……………..8

Submarines……..4………………….1

Patrol vessels…..2………………….8

Patrol ships…………………………22……………..21

Patrol boats…………………………23

LPD………………..4………………..1

LST……………………………………2

LCU…………………………………..9………………1

Mine Sweeper…..4………………….5

Others……………3………………….5

Auxilleries…………………………..17

Riverine Patrol Boats…………….189

 

Not connected to the South China Sea, but close enough to get our attention are the following:

………………………….S. Korea……N. Korea…..Japan…..Australia….New Zealand

Helicopter carriers……1……………………………….4……………2

Cruisers…………………………………………………..8

Destroyers…………….12………………………………22…………..2
Frigates………………..11…………….3………………10…………..8…………….2

Corvettes……………..12…………….14………………6
Submarines…………..18…………….70……………..20…………..6

Patrol vessels………….0……………………………………………………………..2

Patrol ships…………..71……………………………….13………………………….2

Missiles boats…………………………30

Torpedo boats……………………….247

Patrol boats…………………………..191……………….6…………..2

LSD……………………………………………………………………….1

LST……………………..8…………………………………3

Other Amphib………….5………………………………..2………………………….1

Mine warfare………….11……………30………………26…………..6

Other……………………2………………………………..8…………..7…………….1

Auxiliary……………….20……………………………….21………….2

 

Needless to say, in an extreme emergency (which would probably involve the U.S.) we would probably expect Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan to cooperate. This is a total of 7 carriers, 8 cruisers, 40 destroyers, 51 frigates and 48 submarines compared to China’s 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK)

 

Finally there is the Russian Navy, which has 1 carrier, 2 battle cruisers, 11 destroyers, 10 frigates and around 45 submarines (SSGN, SSN and SSK), although not all will be in the Pacific. Then there is the United States which has 11 carriers, 9 amphibious carriers, 22 cruisers, 69 destroyers, 20 Littoral Combat Ships and 52 submarines (SSGN and SSN). Not all of these will be it the Pacific either. Details are here:

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy

 

The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1

These has been a little rumbling lately in the news about Malaysia and Vietnam asserting their territorial rights in the South China Sea. Of course, part of the area they asserting is part of their 200 mile economic exclusion zone happens to be territory that Red China also claims. These are not the only countries that have such conflicts. Bordering the South China Sea is China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. There countries with competing claims are China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. Let us look at their naval assets for a moment.

China has the largest navy in the region. Their fleet (the People’s Liberation Army Navy) consists of:

2 new carriers – 54,500 to 58.600 tons (one commissioned in 2019)

36 Destroyers – 3,670 to 12,000 tons

52 Frigates – 2,000 to 4,200 tons

42 Corvettes – 1,400 tons

109 Missile boats – 170 to 520 tons

94 Submarine chasers

17 gunboats

20 mine countermeasures vessels – 400 to 1,200 tons

6 Amphibious transport docks (LPD) – 25,000 tons

1 Mobile Landing Platform

32 Landing Ship Tanks (LST) – 4,170 to 4,800 tons

31 Landing Ship medium (LSM) – 800 to 2,000 tons

7 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN) – 8,000 to 11,500 tons

12 Nuclear attack Submarines (SSN) – 5,500 to 7,000 tons

55 Attack submarines (SSK) – 2,110 to 4,000 tons

The fleet also includes a 12 replenishment oilers and 232 various auxiliaries. The fleet is definitely growing and will have a third carrier around 2022.

The other countries have:

…………………….Taiwan……Philippines…..Indonesia….Brunei….Malaysia….Vietnam
Destroyers………..4
Frigates…………..22…………..(2)……………..8…………………………..6……………..9

Corvettes………….1…………….1…………….10…………………………..6……………14
Subs (SSK)………4……………..0……………..5……………………………2……………..6

ASW Corvettes…………………………………14

Patrol Vessel……………………11………………………………4…………..8

Patrol ships……….12…………..7……………37……………..9…………..8

Missile boats……..31………………………….15……………………………8

Mine sweepers….10………………………….12…………………………….4……………..8

Patrol boats……………………58…………..104……………23………….17……………54?

LSD…………………..1………….2……………..5

LST…………………..2………….5…………….12

LSM………………………………………………12…………………………………………..6?

Auxiliaries…………..5……….13………………42…………………………..14…………..12

 

The Taiwanese corvette is 567 tons, their patrol ships are 580 tons, their missile boats are 171 tonnes. The small Philippine fleet will get two frigates (2,600 tons) in 2020. Their corvette is 1,200 tons. Their offshore patrol vessels range from 712 to 3,250 tons. The patrol ships range from 140 to 357 tons, their patrol and missile boats are all less than 60 tons. The Indonesian ASW Corvettes 950 tons, East German built (we have a piano from East Germany).

There are some other countries on the periphery of this conflict, like Singapore, Thailand and Cambodia. We will address them in a subsequent post.