Category China

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 5

This updated post addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the nine worst plagued countries in the world (see post from yesterday on the “big nine”). We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 09:33:07 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea, population 52 million. They have 11,668 reported cases. This is clearly what controlling the virus looks like. They have had a total of 273 deaths, for a mortality rate of 2.34%

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, are the United States (1,874,411 reported cases), Brazil (614,941 reported cases) , Russia (449,256 reported cases), United Kingdom (283,080 reported cases), Spain (240,660 reported cases), Italy (234,013 reported cases), India (229,594 reported cases), France (189,569 reported cases) and Germany (184,924 reported cases). It looks like Spain, Italy, France and Germany are bringing the virus under control. The United States, Brazil, Russia and India clearly have not. The graphs from yesterday are in this post:

Coronavirus and the Big Nine

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (16,949 cases and 913 deaths), Taiwan (443 cases and 7 deaths) and Vietnam (328 cases and still no reported deaths). It took Japan longer to bring the virus under control that South Korea, but it appears like they have done. This is a country with a population of 126 million people.

And here is China, the original source of the virus. They have 84,174 reported cases and 4,638 reported deaths, although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add to this collection of graphs Austria (16,843 reported cases and 672 deaths), Denmark (12,075 reported case and 586 deaths), Czech Republic (9,494 reported cases and 326 deaths), Norway (8,504 reported cases and 238 deaths), Australia (7,251 reported cases and 102 reported deaths), Iceland (1,806 reported cases and 10 deaths), and New Zealand (1,504 reported cases and 22 deaths). It appears that they have all bringing or have actually brought the virus under control.

And then there is Singapore. Seven weeks ago it had 3,614 reported cases. Six weeks ago it had 11,178 reported cases. Four weeks ago it had 21,707 reported cases and 20 reported deaths and as of now it was 37,183 reported cases and 24 deaths. It appears that they still do not have control of the situation.

And finally there is Sweden, which I gather did not do any lockdown procedures. They have 41,883 reported cases and 4,562 deaths. Compare their graph and their stats to their neighbors Denmark and Norway.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 3

I may continue updating this post for a while. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 8:31:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (10,702 reported cases, only 89 more case than reported around this same time last week):

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, here are the graphs for the United States (842,624 reported cases), Spain (213,024 reported cases) and Italy (187,327 reported cases). It looks like Spain and Italy are reaching their deflection point:

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (11,950 cases), Taiwan (427 cases) and Vietnam (268 cases, the same as last week). Not sure why Japan does not have the virus under control like South Korea does. This would be worth looking into.

And here is China (83,878 reported cases), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austria (15,002 reported cases), Norway (7,338 reported cases), Australia (6,547 reported cases and only 85 new cases since last week), the Czech Republic (7,136 reported cases), Iceland (1,785 reported cases and only 58 new cases since last week) and New Zealand (1,451 reported cases and only 50 new cases since last week) to this collection of graphs as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off:

Finally, there is Germany, which has the fifth highest number of reported cases (at 150,773). They also appear to be bringing this under control.

And then there is Singapore. Last week it had 3,614 reported cases. Now it has 11,178 reported cases. It appears that they have lost control of the situation again.

Coronavius Mortality Rates update 15

This is my last update of this post for a while. My first post on Mortality Rates was on 27 February. At that time there was 4,051 cases of Coronavirus outside of China and only 66 deaths outside of China. It is here:

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

I am looking at shifting away from Coronavirus posts and focusing more time on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase,  as sadly are the number of deaths, and so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 3.31%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000 residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the data is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. China has had 83,853 cases of which 77,799 recovered and 4,636 have died. If these figures are correct, this means that there are only 1,418 active cases left in China. In contrast, the United States has staggering 788,110 cases with only 73,533 recovered and a depressing 42,458 deaths. We are now 32% of the world’s reported cases and 25% of the world’s reported deaths. We are 4% of the world’s population.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……2,499,723….171,718…..…6.87%

United States…….788,110……42,458…..…5.39%

Spain………..……204,178……21,282……10.42%

Italy………..….…..181,228……24,114..….13.31%

France………….…156,493……20,265……12.95%

Germany…….……147,103….…4,869…..….3.31%

United Kingdom….125,856……16,509…….13.12%

Turkey…….……..…90,980….….2,140……..2.35%

Iran………………….84,802……..5,297…..…6.25%

China.………………83,853……..4,636.…….5.54%

Russia…….……..…52,763…….…456….….0.86%

Belgium….………….40,956……..5,998……14.64%

Brazil…………………40,814….….2,588…..…6.34%

Canada………………37,933……..1,753……..4.62%

Netherlands.……..…34,317……..3,916……11.41%

Switzerland…………28,063……..1,436……..5.12%

Portugal.…..…….….21,379…….….762.….…3.56%

India…………………18,985……..…603.……..3.18%

Peru………….………16,325……..…445.……..2.73%

Ireland………….……15,652……..…687.……..4.39%

Sweden…..…….……15,322………1,765…….11.52%

Austria………………14,873…………491………3.30%

Israel…….……….…13,883…….…..181………1.31%

Saudi Arabia……….11,631…………109……….0.94%

Japan……………….11,135…..……..263.….…..2.36%

S. Korea……….…..10,683…………237…..…..2.22%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

Pakistan…………….…9,216……..…192……….2.08%

Singapore…..…………9,125…………11……..…0.12%

Mexico…………………8,772…..……712……..…8.12%

Denmark..….…………7,891………..370…….…4.69%

Norway……………..…7,191..………182…….…2.53%

Indonesia….……..……7,135…….….616………..8.63%

Czechia…………………6,914…..…….196…….…2.83%

Australia………..……..6,547..……..….67….……1.02%

Ukraine…………………6,125…..…….161……..…2.63%

Egypt…………..….…..3,333…….……250…..……7.50%

Hungary……………….2,098……..….213……….10.15%

Bahrain……….……….1,952………….…7…….…..0.36%

Iceland…………..……1,778……………10…………0.56%

Iraq…..…………….…..1,574..…..…….82…..…..…5.21%

New Zealand…………1,445…………..13…………0.90%

Hong Kong….….…….1,029……….…4………..…0.39%

Afghanistan……………1,092….…..…..36………….3.30%

Andorra……….…….……717.…..……..37……..….5.16%

Lebanon……..…….….…677..…………21……..….3.10%

San Marino………………476……..……40………….8.40%

Palestine…..……………..461…..……..…4………….0.87%

Taiwan………………..…425………….…6….………1.41%

Vietnam….………..….…268………….…0………….0%

North Korea..………….…..0……..…..…0…….….…0%

Syria……….………….……..0……..……..0……….…0%

Yemen………………………..1……..……..0…..…..…0%

Libya……….………..……….0………..…..0………..…0%

Diamond Princess…….….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/21/20 as of 9:38.33 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 2

Updating my posts for the last two weeks. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 10:36:00 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (10,613 reported cases):

In comparison, here are the graphs for the United States (640,014 reported cases), Spain (182,816 reported cases) and Italy (165,155 reported cases). It looks like Spain and Italy are reaching their deflection point:

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam. Note that they have fewer reported cases, 8,626, 395, 268 respectively:

And here is China (83,402 reported cases), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austria (14,451 reported cases), Norway (6,798 reported cases), Australia (6,462 reported cases), the Czech Republic (6,303 reported cases), Singapore (3,614 reported cases), Iceland (1,727 reported cases) and New Zealand (1,401 reported cases) to this collection of graphs as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off:

There are other people publishing similar graphs. For example: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

 

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 14

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. This may be my second to last update as these do take some time. It is the especially annoying with the slow creaky internet that has developed from everyone “working” at home. My time may be better spent on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 2.47%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000  residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the date is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 83,306 cases of which 78,195 recovered and 3,345 deaths. This is 588 more cases and 10 more deaths than last week. In contrast, the United States has 582,634 cases with only 44,319 recovered and a depressing 23,654 deaths. We are now 30% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……1,942,360….121,726…..…6.27%

United States…….582,634……23,654…..…4.06%

Spain………..……172,541……18,056……10.46%

Italy………..….…..159,516……20,465..….12.83%

France………….…137,877……14,967……10.86%

Germany…….……130,383……3,220…..….2.47%

United Kingdom……94,823…..12,107…….12.77%

China.………………83,306……..3,335.…….4.00%

Iran…………………74,877……..4,683………6.25%

Turkey…….……..…61,049……..1,296……..2.12%

Belgium….………….31,119……..4,157……13.36%

Netherlands.…….…27,580……..2,945……10.68%

Switzerland…………25,913……..1,162……..4.48%

Canada………………25,680……….823……..3.20%

Brazil…………………23,955….….1,361….…5.68%

Russia…….……..…21,102…….…170….….0.81%

Portugal.…..…….….17,448…….…567.….…3.25%

Austria……………..14,159………..384………2.71%

Israel…….……….…11,868………..117………0.98%

Sweden…..…….…..11,445………1,033………9.03%

Ireland………….……10,647……..…365.……..3.43%

S. Korea……….…..10,564…………222….…..2.10%

India…………………10,541……..…358.…..….3.40%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

 

Japan…………………7,645…..…..143.….…..1.87%

Denmark..….…………6,691……….299…….…4.47%

Norway…………….…6,691..………139…….…2.08%

Australia………..……..6,494..……….61….……0.94%

Pakistan…………….…5,837……..….96……….1.64%

Saudi Arabia………….5,369………….73………….1.36%

Mexico…………………5,014…..…..332……..…6.62%

Indonesia….……..…….4,839……….459……..….9.49%

Ukraine……………..…3,372…..…….98……..…2.91%

Singapore…..…………3,252…………10……..…0.31%

Egypt…………..….…..2,190…..…..164…..……7.49%

Iceland…………..……1,711…….……8……..…0.47%

Bahrain……….……….1,522……….…7…….…..0.46%

Hungary……………….1,512……….122……..…8.07%

Iraq…..………………..1,378..……….78…..……5.66%

New Zealand…………1,366……….…9……..…0.66%

Hong Kong….….…….1,012……….…4……..…0.39%

Afghanistan…………..…714….…..…23………….3.22%

Andorra……….…….……646.…..……29……..….4.49%

Lebanon……..…….….…641..…..……21……..….3.28%

Taiwan………………..…393……….…6….………1.53%

San Marino…………….…371…….….32………….8.63%

Palestine…..……………..308…..…..…2……..….0.65%

Vietnam….………..….…266……….…0……..….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/14/20 as of 10:41.26 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 1

Just an update on my post last week on this subject:

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (as of 9:36;11 AM)

In comparison, here is the United States, Spain and Italy:

In contrast here are three other East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam:

 

And here is China, although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austrian graph to this as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and may start leveling off:

The daily increase for Austria is here:

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 13

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 1.76%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 82,718 cases of which 77,410 are recovered (and 3,335 died). In contrast, the United States has 368,449 cases with only 19,919 recovered (and 10,993 deaths). We are now 27% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths……Rate

World Wide……1,363,365….76,420….…5.61%

United States…….368,449….11,008..……2.99%

Spain………..……140,510….13,798……..9.82%

Italy………..……..132,547….16,523..….12.47%

Germany…….…..103,717……1,822…..…1.76%

France………………98,984…..8,926….….9.02%

China.………………82,718…..3,335.…….4.03%

Iran……………….…62,589…..3,872………6.19%

United Kingdom……52,301…..5,385…….10.30%

Turkey…….…………30,217……..649………2.15%

Switzerland……..…22,242……..787……….3.54%

Belgium….…………22,194……2,035………9.17%

Netherlands.………19,703…….2,108…….10.70%

Canada…………….16,667………323………1.94%

Austria……………..12,488……….243………1.95%

Portugal.…..…….…12,442………345………2.77%

Brazil……………….12,240……….566………4.62%

S. Korea……….…..10,331………192….…..1.86%

Israel…….……………9,006…..…..60…….…0.67%

Sweden…..…….……7,693…..….591……….7.68%

Russia…….…………7,497………..58……….0.77%

Australia………..……5,895..…..….45….……0.76%

Norway…………….…5,866..…..….83…….…1.41%

Ireland……………..…5,364………174.………3.24%

Denmark..….………..5,173………203………3.92%

India…………………..4,908………137.…..….2.79%

 

Sixty-two countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 44 countries, the week before that it was 26 countries, and three weeks ago it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a five thousand cases so far:

Pakistan………………4,004…..….55……….1.37%

Japan…………………3,906…..….92.….…..2.36%

Indonesia….…..……..2,738…….221……….8.07%

Mexico……………..…2,439…….125…….…5.13%

Iceland…………..……1,562…….…6…….…0.38%

Ukraine…………….…1,462…..….45…….…3.08%

Singapore…..……..…1,375……..…6…….…0.44%

Egypt…………..……..1,322……….85….……6.43%

New Zealand…………1,160……..…1…….…0.09%

Iraq…..………………..1,031..……..64….……6.21%

Hungary…………………817…….…47….……5.75%

Bahrain……….…….……756……..…4…..…..0.53%

Hong Kong….….………935……..…4………0.43%

Lebanon……..………..…548..………19….….3.47%

Andorra……….………….525.………21…..….4.00%

Afghanistan………………423………..14………3.31%

Taiwan…………….…..…376……..…5….…..1.33%

San Marino…………….…277……….32……..11.55%

Palestine…..……………..260…..……1……….0.38%

Vietnam….…………….…249……..…0……….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/07/20 as of 9:42.07 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rate continues to grow to now 1.86%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths are at 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are now few European countries that are reporting a rate of less than 1%. In most cases, it would appear that the mortality rate is going to increase over time. This has happened with German, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland. Two weeks ago they were all around 0.50%, now they are all over 1%.
      1. Germany is at  1.76%. Switzerland is at 3.54%, Austria is at 1.95%,  Norway is at 1.41% and Ireland is at 3.24%.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
      2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% is hard to justify now. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 277 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.83% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at 11.55%. If the real mortality rate should be 1%, then this means they may well have almost 10% of the country infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 7 cases in around 1,000 people (0.70%)
    2. Andorra with a population of 76,177 and 525 cases I gather is now third at 0.69%. Is Andorra a snapshot of the future of Spain like San Marino looks like a snapshot of the future of Italy?
    3. Spain with 47,100,396 people and 140,510 cases maybe fourth (0.30%). I have not checked every country.
    4. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 132,547 cases may be fifth (0.22%). Because of the high mortality rates of Spain and Italy, I believe the level of infection there is much higher.

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 292,467 out of 1,363,365 cases and 76,420 deaths.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 12

Well, the coronavirus is now the lead story of every news service. There are a lot of real experts now on TV talking about this. Not sure how much longer I will continue these coronavirus updates. But, since my last post the number of cases is up dramatically, sadly so are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1%.

China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they reported 80.9K cases. Twenty days later they are at 82.3K cases. So it is only growing by around 70 cases a day. The Wednesday before last it was 81,102, last Tuesday it was 81,588 now it is 82,276. This is 1,174 new reported cases in thirteen days or 90 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……803,650….39,033….…4.86%

United States….164,785……2,777+..….1.69%

Italy………..……101,739….11,591…….11.39%

Spain………..…..94,417……8,189….…..8.67%

China.……………82,276……3,290+.…….3.89%

Germany…….…..67,051….….682………1.02%

France……………45,209…..3,024……….6.69%

Iran…………….…44,605…..2,898……….6.50%

United Kingdom…22,465…..1,411…….…6.28%

Switzerland………16,176…….373………..2.31%

Belgium….………..12,775…….705…….….5.52%

Netherlands.……..12,662….1,039………..8.21%

Turkey…………….10,827……168……..…1.55%

Austria…………..…9,974…….128………..1.28%

S. Korea……….….9,786…….162………..1.65%

Canada………….…7,448……..84….……1.13%

Portugal.…..………..7,443……160…….….2.15%

Israel…….…………..4,831……..17…….…0.35%

Brazil………………..4,681…….167….……3.57%

Norway………….…4,599..…….36…….…0.78%

Australia……………4,559..…….12….……0.26%

Sweden…..…………4,435…….180……….0.83%

Czech Rep…………3,002………25…….…0.83%

Denmark..….………2,994………90………3.01%

Ireland………………2,910………54.………1.86%

Malaysia….…..……2,766…..….43…….…1.55%

Chile..……………….2,449……..…8….……0.33%

Russia…….…….…2,337….…..17……….0.73%

Romania……………2,245…..….72…….…3.21%

Poland………………2,215…..….32…..….1.44%

Philippines…….……2,084………88………4.22%

Luxembourg.……….1,988….…..22………1.11%

Ecuador.….…………1,966………62………2.87%

Japan………….……1,953…..….56.….…..2.87%

Pakistan……….……1,865….….25….…….1.34%

Thailand.…..………..1,651….….10.…….…0.61%

Saudi Arabia……..…1,563………10………0.64%

Indonesia….…………1,528…….136……….8.90%

Finland….……….…..1,418……..17………1.20%

South Africa….…..…1,326…….…3……….0.23%

India…………………..1,251………32.……….2.56%

Greece..….……….….1,212….….46…….…3.806%

Iceland…………..……1,135…….…2…….…0.18%

Mexico……………..…1,094……..28…….…2.56%

Panama……………….1,075….….27………2.51%

 

Forty-four countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 26 countries, the week before that it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a thousand cases so far:

 

Argentina…..……..……966……….25….……2.59%

Peru…..………………….950……….24….……2.53%

Singapore…..……..……926……..…3…….…0.32%

Dominican Rep..…….…901….……42….……4.66%

Slovenia……………….…802.………15………1.87%

Colombia…………….….798.………14……….1.75%

Serbia…………………….785.………16…….…2.04%

Hong Kong….……………714……..…4….……0.56%

Egypt…………..…………656……….41……….6.25%

New Zealand…………….647……..…1…….…0.15%

Iraq…..……………….…..630..……..46…..……7.30%

Algeria………..…..………584………35………..5.99%

Morocco………..………..574………33………..5.75%

Bahrain……….….………567……..…4………..0.71%

Ukraine…………………..549……….13……..…2.37%

Hungary………………….492.………16…….….3.25%

Lebanon……..………..…463..……..12…..…….2.59%

Bosnia………………..….411.……….12…….….2.92%

Andorra………………….370.…….…..8….…….2.16%

Tunisia……………….…..362.………10….…….2.76%

Taiwan………………..…322…………5………..1.55%

Burkina Faso……………246.…..…..12…….….4.88%

Albania……………….….243.……….13…….….5.35%

San Marino…………..…230………..25……….10.87%

Vietnam….…………..…207……….…0…….….0%

Afghanistan…………..…174….……..4…….….2.30%

Palestine…..…………….117…………1….…….0.95%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 10:01.43 AM EST. The data page is no longer showing count of less then 3 deaths in their tabulation, but shows it on their map. It makes it harder to count all the deaths in the United States as they are reported by country. The United States now has over 3,000 deaths. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rate continues to grow to now 1.65%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths are at 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are now few European countries that are reporting a rate of less than 1%. In most cases, it would appear that the mortality rate is going to increase over time. This has happened with German, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland. Last week they were all around 0.50%, now they are all over 1%.
      1. Germany is at  1.02%. Switzerland is at 2.31%, Austria is at 1.28%,  Norway is at 0.78% and Ireland is at 1.86%.
      2. It appears that these numbers will continue to go up as more data comes in and unfortunately, more people become seriously ill.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over a million cases in Italy and over a half-million cases in Spain.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 230 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.69% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at around 11%. They may well have over 7% of the country infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 6 cases in around 1,000 people (0.60%)
    2. Andorra with a population of 76,177 and 370 cases I gather is now third at 0.48%. Is Andorra a snapshot of the future of Spain like San Marino looks like a snapshot of the future of Italy?
    3. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 101,739 cases is fourth (0.17%), maybe (I haven’t checked every country).
      1. If they really have over a million cases then we are looking at almost 2% infected.
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 714 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is/was a political protest movement of some significance going on there.

 

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 172,869 out of 809,608 cases and 39,545 deaths (as of 11.11.10 AM).

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 11

Well, this situation is now devastating and depressing. The coronavirus is now spreading across the world rapidly and does not appear to be under control in many countries. The curve has turned upwards sharply since early March. More than one national leader needs to be held responsible for their failure to properly and quickly respond to this. There was warning.

China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Fourteen days later they are at 81.6K cases. So it is only growing by around 50 cases a day. Last Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,588. This is 486 cases in six days or 81 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……395,647….17,241….…4.40%

China.……………81,588……3,269……..4.01%

Italy………………63,927……6,077……..9.51%

United States……46,485……….551…….1.19%

Spain……………..39,673……2,696….…6.80%

Germany…………31,260….…..132…….0.42%

Iran………….……24,811……1,934……..7.79%

France……………20,149………860…….4.27%

Switzerland…….…9,117…….….43…….0.47%

S. Korea…….…….9,037………120……..1.33%

United Kingdom.…6,733………335…..…4.98%

Netherlands.………5,578.….….276……..4.95%

Austria………….…4,876..……….25………0.51%

Belgium….….….…4,269………122…..….2.86%

Norway……………2,715..……….12………0.44%

Portugal.…..………2,362….…….29……….1.23%

Sweden…..….……2,272…………36……….1.58%

Canada………….…2,088……..…24….…..1.15%

Australia……………2,044..…………8….…..0.39%

Brazil………………1,965…….…..34………1.73%

Denmark..….……..1,703……..….32………1.88%

Israel…….…………1,656…………..2………0.12%

Malaysia….…..……1,624…………15…..…0.92%

Turkey…………..…1,529…..….…37…..…2.42%

Czech Rep……..…1,289………..…2…..…0.16%

Japan………………1,140..……….42.……..3.68%

Ireland………..……1,125……….…6.………0.53%

 

Twenty-six countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. Almost all of them will probably be over a thousand cases soon. These figures are heavily influenced by the degree of testing.

 

Country……….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Ecuador.….……….…981……..…18………1.83%

Chile..……………..…922………….2….…..0.22%

Pakistan……….…….918……….…7….…..0.76%

Luxembourg.…….….875………..…8………0.91%

Thailand.…..…………827……….…4………0.48%

Poland………………..799……….…9…..….1.12%

Finland….……….…..792……….…1………0.12%

Saudi Arabia…………767…………..1………0.13%

Romania………….…762………..…8………1.04%

Greece..….……….….695……….…6………0.86%

Indonesia….……..….686…..……55……….8.02%

Iceland…………..…..648……….…2…….…0.31%

Singapore…..……….558…………2….……0.36%

South Africa…..…..…554……….…4……….0.72%

Philippines…….…….552………..35….……6.34%

India……………….…519…………10.…..…..1.93%

Qatar..………….…….501..……..…0………..0%

Russia…….…………495……….…1…….….0.20%

Slovenia….…………..480……….…4….……0.83%

Peru………………..…395……..…..5………..1.27%

Bahrain……….………390……….…3………..0.77%

Hong Kong….…….…386……….…4…..……1.04%

Estonia…..…….…..…369……….…0…..……0%

Mexico……………..…367……….…4…..……1.09%

Egypt…………..……..366……..….19……..….5.19%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 366 cases so far:

 

Iraq…..……………..316..…………27…..…..8.54%

Lebanon……..….…304..……..……4…..…..1.32%

Algeria………..…….230…….……17………..7.39%

Taiwan………………215…………….2………..0.93%

San Marino…………187………….21……….11.23%

Hungary…………….187.………..…9…….….4.81%

New Zealand………155……………0……..…0%

Vietnam….…………123………….…0…….….0%

Ukraine………………97.…….….…3…………3.09%

Azerbaijan..……..…..87………….…1…….….1.15%

Afghanistan…………42….…………1…….….2.38%

Palestine…..………..26?……….….0….…….0%

North Korea..………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….…..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen……….………..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

 

Diamond Princess…712………11……..….1.54%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 9:54.39 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rates stands at 1.33%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths have now gone up to 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are a few European countries with a reported rate of around 0.50%.
      1. Germany is at  0.42%
      2. Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland are also in this range.
      3. Is this the best case scenario….or will these numbers continue to go up as more data comes in and unfortunately, more people become more ill. The German numbers do keep going up.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 600,000 cases in Italy, over 250,000 cases in Spain, and maybe over 200,000 cases in Iran.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 187 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.56% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at over 11%. They may well have almost 6% of the country infected.
    1. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 63,927 cases is third (0.11%)
      1. If they really have over 600,000 cases then we are looking at almost 1%.
    2. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 386 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported weeks ago to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 103,317 out of 395,647 cases (and 17,241 deaths).