Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
[The article below is reprinted from April 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] The First Test of the TNDM Battalion-Level Validations: Predicting the Winners by Christopher A. Lawrence CASE STUDIES: WHERE AND WHY THE MODEL FAILED CORRECT PREDICTIONS World…
[The article below is reprinted from April 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] The First Test of the TNDM Battalion-Level Validations: Predicting the Winners by Christopher A. Lawrence CASE STUDIES: WHERE AND WHY THE MODEL FAILED CORRECT PREDICTIONS World…
[The article below is reprinted from April 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] The First Test of the TNDM Battalion-Level Validations: Predicting the Winners by Christopher A. Lawrence Part II CONCLUSIONS: WWI (12 cases): For the WWI battles, the…
[The article below is reprinted from April 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] The First Test of the TNDM Battalion-Level Validations: Predicting the Winners by Christopher A. Lawrence Part I In the basic concept of the TNDM battalion-level validation,…
[The article below is reprinted from April 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] Numerical Adjustment of CEV Results: Averages and Means by Christopher A. Lawrence and David L. Bongard As part of the battalion-level validation effort, we made two…
[The article below is reprinted from October 1996 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] Validation of the TNDM at Battalion Level by Christopher A. Lawrence The original QJM (Quantified Judgement Model) was created and validated using primarily division-level engagements from…
The question of validating combat models—“To confirm or prove that the output or outputs of a model are consistent with the real-world functioning or operation of the process, procedure, or activity which the model is intended to represent or replicate”—as…
[NOTE: This piece was originally posted on 23 August 2016] A few years ago, I came across a student battle analysis exercise prepared by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute on the Battle of Kasserine Pass in Tunisia in February…
It appears that discussion of the meaning of lethality, as related to the use of the term in the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy document, has sparked up again. It was kicked off by an interesting piece by Olivia Gerard…
The second conceptual element in Trevor Dupuy’s theory of combat is his definition of the hierarchy of combat: [F]ghting between armed forces—while always having the characteristics noted [in the definition of military combat], such as fear and planned violence—manifests itself…