Coronavius Mortality Rates update 15

This is my last update of this post for a while. My first post on Mortality Rates was on 27 February. At that time there was 4,051 cases of Coronavirus outside of China and only 66 deaths outside of China. It is here:

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

I am looking at shifting away from Coronavirus posts and focusing more time on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase,  as sadly are the number of deaths, and so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 3.31%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000 residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the data is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. China has had 83,853 cases of which 77,799 recovered and 4,636 have died. If these figures are correct, this means that there are only 1,418 active cases left in China. In contrast, the United States has staggering 788,110 cases with only 73,533 recovered and a depressing 42,458 deaths. We are now 32% of the world’s reported cases and 25% of the world’s reported deaths. We are 4% of the world’s population.

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……2,499,723….171,718…..…6.87%

United States…….788,110……42,458…..…5.39%

Spain………..……204,178……21,282……10.42%

Italy………..….…..181,228……24,114..….13.31%

France………….…156,493……20,265……12.95%

Germany…….……147,103….…4,869…..….3.31%

United Kingdom….125,856……16,509…….13.12%

Turkey…….……..…90,980….….2,140……..2.35%

Iran………………….84,802……..5,297…..…6.25%

China.………………83,853……..4,636.…….5.54%

Russia…….……..…52,763…….…456….….0.86%

Belgium….………….40,956……..5,998……14.64%

Brazil…………………40,814….….2,588…..…6.34%

Canada………………37,933……..1,753……..4.62%

Netherlands.……..…34,317……..3,916……11.41%

Switzerland…………28,063……..1,436……..5.12%

Portugal.…..…….….21,379…….….762.….…3.56%

India…………………18,985……..…603.……..3.18%

Peru………….………16,325……..…445.……..2.73%

Ireland………….……15,652……..…687.……..4.39%

Sweden…..…….……15,322………1,765…….11.52%

Austria………………14,873…………491………3.30%

Israel…….……….…13,883…….…..181………1.31%

Saudi Arabia……….11,631…………109……….0.94%

Japan……………….11,135…..……..263.….…..2.36%

S. Korea……….…..10,683…………237…..…..2.22%

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

Pakistan…………….…9,216……..…192……….2.08%

Singapore…..…………9,125…………11……..…0.12%

Mexico…………………8,772…..……712……..…8.12%

Denmark..….…………7,891………..370…….…4.69%

Norway……………..…7,191..………182…….…2.53%

Indonesia….……..……7,135…….….616………..8.63%

Czechia…………………6,914…..…….196…….…2.83%

Australia………..……..6,547..……..….67….……1.02%

Ukraine…………………6,125…..…….161……..…2.63%

Egypt…………..….…..3,333…….……250…..……7.50%

Hungary……………….2,098……..….213……….10.15%

Bahrain……….……….1,952………….…7…….…..0.36%

Iceland…………..……1,778……………10…………0.56%

Iraq…..…………….…..1,574..…..…….82…..…..…5.21%

New Zealand…………1,445…………..13…………0.90%

Hong Kong….….…….1,029……….…4………..…0.39%

Afghanistan……………1,092….…..…..36………….3.30%

Andorra……….…….……717.…..……..37……..….5.16%

Lebanon……..…….….…677..…………21……..….3.10%

San Marino………………476……..……40………….8.40%

Palestine…..……………..461…..……..…4………….0.87%

Taiwan………………..…425………….…6….………1.41%

Vietnam….………..….…268………….…0………….0%

North Korea..………….…..0……..…..…0…….….…0%

Syria……….………….……..0……..……..0……….…0%

Yemen………………………..1……..……..0…..…..…0%

Libya……….………..……….0………..…..0………..…0%

Diamond Princess…….….712……………11……..….1.54%

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/21/20 as of 9:38.33 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
   1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
   2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.