Fascinating article from a British-based analyst, Dermot Rooney: http://www.wapentakes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Newsbrief_May_Rooney.pdf
A few highlights:
- “…war alone cannot account for the vast number of Afghan migrants or the great distance they are travelling.”
- “Globally, up until 1960, the ratio of refuges to fatalities in conflict zones was below 5:1.”
- “…in 2015 there was an almost unprecedented 50 as asylum applicants for every civilian killed.”
- “Whereas in 1979 over 90% of the Afghan refugees travelled less than 500 km and cross one border, now more than 90% travel over 5,000 km to seek asylum…”
- “There are now 1.3 million internally displaced Afghans, with the total increasing by 400,000 a year.”
- “The pull of economic opportunity plays a large part in the decision to migrate.”
- “In 2015, the population of Afghanistan was 32 million.”
- “…it is nonetheless obliged to import enough wheat to feed 10 million people…”
- “…Afghanistan’s population will pass 40 million in ten years.”
- “the natural growth rate of 2.3% a year added 700,000 to the Afghan population in 2015.”
- “Unless there is a dramatic improvement in the economy and security in that time, 16 million will depend on food aid…”
This is old news. Prof. Huntington predicted this 20 years ago, Syrian and Afghan migration waves due to population growth (peak in the 80s and 2000sends) and insufficient economic development.
The internet and smart phones are the tools for organizing such an exodus over vast distances and we are not talking about the poorest classes of their respective societies, since they cannot afford such a journey.