This is the twelfth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 36 presentations scheduled by 27 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a few more presentations.
The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.
Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Costs, Hotels and Call for Presentations: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).
The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through PayPal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility. We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.
We are set up for virtual presentations and virtual attendees. We are exploring the costs of having the presentations professionally recorded.
Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Updated: revised 27 September 2023
Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford
1030 – 1130 A Cautionary Tale: Alternative Interpretations of the Same Data – Jim Storr – virtual
1130 – 1230 Land Operations – consistencies and discrepancies between theory, historical analysis and doctrine – LtC. Trygve Smidt (Norway)
1230 – 1400 Lunch
1400 – 1500 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire
1500 – 1600 Wargaming 101 – William Sayers
1600 – 1700 Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1700 – 1800 Grinch in Ukraine – Carl Larson
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos
Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare
0900 – 1000 Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1000 – 1100 Evidence of Fabricated Survey Data Collected during the War in Iraq – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1100 – 1200 Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Right Way to Do Risk Analysis: A Primer and Update, With Examples from Pandemics – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)
1400 – 1500 Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1500 – 1600 Chemical Weapons in Syria – Jennifer Schlacht, M.A. – virtual
1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs
Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000 Addressing the Decline in War Question with New Disaggregated Data – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1000 – 1100 The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual
1100 – 1200 The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison
1400 – 1500 Russian Information Warfare Against Western Democracies Since 2013: A review and update – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)
1500 – 1600 Wagner Group structure and new infantry tactics – Carl Larson
1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War
Evening: Happy hour – Rangos
Schedule: Einstein Conference Room
Day 1: Poster and Book Room
Opened at 0800
Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis
1400 – 1500 French Aerial Bombing Problem 1914-1940 – Dr. James F. Slaughter
1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire
1600 – 1700 Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45 – Daniel Horvath – virtual
Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – all virtual
0900 – 1000 Unburdened by History: Understanding Russia’s Growing Influence in Haiti – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual
1000 – 1100 World War 2 Operational Research Revisited – John Magill (UK) – virtual
1100 – 1200 The Stochastic Salvo Model for Naval Combat: Applications to Aircraft Carrier Combat in 1942 – Geoffrey Clark – virtual
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Machine Learning the Lessons of History Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual (repeat)
1400 – 1500 Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual
1500 – 1600 Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York) – part 1 – virtual
1600 – 1700 Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York) – part 2 – virtual
– with Dr. Ian Horwood, Dr. Chris Price, and provisionally Dr. Jamie Wood
Day 3: Researching Operations
0900 – 1000 The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations During the Meuse-Argonne Offensive – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual
1000 – 1100 The French Air Force in the 1940 Campaign – Dr. James F. Slaughter
1100 – 1200 The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Penetrate, Dis-Integrate and Exploit: The Israeli Counter-Offensive at the Suez Canal, 1973 – LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD – virtual
1400 – 1500 Competing Proxy Strategies in the Russo-Ukrainian War and a War of Attrition – LtC. Amos Fox – virtual
1500 – 1600 Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion – Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual
1600 – 1700 A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark – virtual
The presentations from all three days of the first HAAC are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).
