This is a continuation of my previous post: Economics of Warfare 11. It is based upon a review of Michael Spagat’s lecture:Â http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Economics%20of%20Warfare/Lecture%2011.pdf
The Fearon and Laitin study on the “Determinants of Civil War Onset” (link to paper on slide 5)Â had eight factors that influenced that chance of a new civil war (they are listed on slides 8 and 10). One of them is “population (positive effect)”. This is summarized by Michael Spagat as “more people, more chances for war.” The Collier and Hoeffler paper came to similar conclusions on this (link to paper on slide 15). As Michael Spagat summarizes it “Population size is still positive and significant” (slide 16). And then there is a third paper by Hegre and Sambanis (like to paper on slide 23) that states that “country size (population and territory) is positively associated with civil war onset” (slide 24).
Now when we did our insurgency studies we also saw the same thing as it related to winning or losing an insurgency. It show up in our Iraq Casualty Estimate (see America’s Modern Wars, Chapter 1) and in subsequent analysis. Quite simply, insurgencies in large countries were often successful. For example, when we looked at all 10 insurgencies with foreign intervention where the indigenous population was greater than 9 million, the insurgents won 80% of the time (see page 47). In our original Iraq estimate for the cases we had, we found the insurgencies won 71% of the time in large countries (290,079-2,381,740 square kilometers…14 cases); 100% of the time in populous countries (population of 9,529,000 or higher…7 cases); and 78% of time in countries with a large border (which is probably related to country size). This is on pages 17-18.
Apparently size matters when it comes to violence. I am not sure of the cause-and-effect here. Obviously, there are many other factors at play. The Symbonese Liberation Army (SLA)…the people who kidnapped Patty Hearst…were a small urban insurgency operating in a large populous country (the United States). It fizzled quickly. So, it certainly does not mean any insurgency in any large place is an issue. But, there does seem to be some correlation here that continues to haunt analysis of insurgencies and the onset of civil war (which are two different subjects, but somewhat related).
