Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 30 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.
If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.
We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.
Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
The current schedule has not changed much. We now have three virtual presentations and we are set up for virtual attendees:
Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Updated: 24 May 2022
Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks (new) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
0930 – 1030 Studying Combat (old) Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)
1030 – 1130 Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1130 – 1230 How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data
Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)
1230 – 1400 Lunch
1400 – 1500 Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data
Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1500 – 1600 How Important are Superior Numbers?
Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual
1600 – 1700 Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History
Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos
Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare
0900 – 1000 Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1000 – 1100 History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934 Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1100 – 1200
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400
1400 – 1500 Infantry Support Weapon Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?
1500 – 1600
1600 – 1700 The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.
Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs
Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000 The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History
Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)
1000 – 1100 Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making Matt Tompkins
1100 – 1200 Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions
Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare
Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)
1400 – 1500 Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons
Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)
1500 – 1600 The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM
Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1600 – 1700 The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Evening: Happy hour – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin
Schedule: Einstein Conference Room
Day 1: Poster and Book Room
Opened at 0800
Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare
1400 – 1500 Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq) – virtual
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1500 – 1600 Midway and the Aleutians Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)
1600 – 1700
Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 1000 A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?
Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1000 – 1100 The Combat Assessment Technique William Sayers
1100 – 1200 Machine Learning the Lessons of History Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept
LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD
1400 – 1500
1500 – 1600 War by Numbers (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?
1600 – 1700 Urban Warfare (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?
Day 3: Researching Operations
0900 – 1000 The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918 Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1000 – 1100 Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943
Eugene Matyukhin
1100 – 1200 The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44
Dr. Richard Harrison
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Decline of War Since 1950
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1400 – 1500 Donbas Campaign 2014-2015 Amos Fox (Major, USA)
1500 – 1600
1600 – 1700
Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling
Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare
Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis
Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis
