A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map
Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.
It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or so as Russia repositions. It is also raining for parts of this week. Missiles and artillery shelling various Ukrainian cites. A lot is in the east around Kramatorsk and other areas of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces, and some villages in Zaporizhzhia province. Is this prepping for an offensive? A lot of people are announcing that the second phase of the war has begun, but don’t see any major offensives yet. It will probably have to wait until it has stopped raining.
There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail.
I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. It has been fighting on for far longer than I expected but sounds like the resistance there is going to collapse in the next few days. It is not going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.
This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next offense towards Kharkov; or is it the cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135), Lysychansk (pop. 95,031), Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) and Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084) in the Lugansk and Donetsk provinces? Russia and the LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) took Kreminna (pop. 18,417) on 18 April (NW of Siervierdonetsk and Lysychansk). Is this the start of a Russian operation to envelope Sieverierdonetsk and Lysychansk? This metropolitan area has a combined population of around 350,000. Are Russians going to limit themselves to cleaning up the rest of the areas claimed by the LPR and DPR (and then try to negotiate a cease fire), or are they going to strike towards other areas?
Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson.
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have put this post on a diet today, trying to keep this down below 4,000 words.
We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.
1. Kiev – secure
2. Odessa – secure
3. Kharkov
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure. Do not think it is in danger anymore from amphibious invasion. The range of a Neptune missile is 175 miles (280 kilometers). The distance from Odessa to Sevastopol is 188 miles.
It looks like the Russian cruiser Moskva has been picked off by two Neptune anti-ship missiles. It was set afire and sunk while it was being towed. As the Dardanelles is now closed to Russian warships, it will not be replaced during the war. There were some crew casualties with one death confirmed in Russian media sources and they are saying at least 27 other crew members are still unaccounted for. Losses may be higher than that. The captain of large landing shop Ceasar Kunikov (2,812 tons unload) was also killed, perhaps as early as March 24 in the assault on Berdyansk.
The Moskva may have been a significant anti-aircraft asset of the Russians, armed with 8 S-300Fs SAM launchers and 8 full reloads (64 missiles). Its loss may help expose Kherson and other parts of the coast to Ukrainian drones and aircraft.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled.
Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March. Rumors are that the next Russian offensive is going to push from Izium. The 8-mile column that is being reported on it in the news is in position to head towards Izium or towards Kharkov.
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 7 April that they had 979 soldiers killed and 4,265 wounded (4.36-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 26% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious. Zelensky in an interview on CNN on 17 April said they had 44,000 professional military men in the Donbas.
Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692). The Russia and LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) have taken Kreminna (pop. 18,417). This village is to the NW of Sievierdonetsk and Lysychansk (pop. 95,031). Is the next Russian operation to envelope Sieverierdonetsk and Lysychansk? This metropolitan area has a combined population of around 350,000.
Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.
Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk. It had its rail station hit on 9 April with over 50 civilians killed.
It does appear like the Russia and the Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. This is in line with what the Russian foreign minister Lavrov is saying.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day forty-nine of the siege. The defenders appear to still be holding out in one or two pockets of resistance. Unconfirmed reports of “phosphorus munitions” being used in Mariupol.
Not sure what the starting strength was for the Ukrainian defenders at Mariupol. I have seen figures as low as 3,500 defenders, which is really not a lot and I suspect is low. The Russian military are estimating the 2,500 fighters are holding out around the Azovstal steel mill in the city. Added to that they reported on 13 April that 1,026 Ukrainian troops of the 36th Marine Brigade surrendered at the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works. See: Ukrainians defy deadline to surrender in Mariupol or die
The population of the city is down to 120,000 or less. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 10,000 people have been killed. The head of DPR (Donets People’s Republic) has said over 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson?
There were significant anti-occupation protests by the residents of Kherson on 11 April.
Weather: Kharkov at 4 PM: 61 degrees (16 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 42 degrees (6 Celsius). Rain forecast for today and tomorrow and also later in the week. I assume this shuts down all major military operations for the next week or two, especially as it takes a couple of days for the ground to dry.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). I have yet to any statistics as to how many foreign volunteers have been deployed, just individual stories.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles (see below for more details). Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.
Slovakia has now donated S-300 air defense missiles to Ukraine. According to Wikipedia, Slovakia had only one battery with up to 45 missiles. In exchange, the U.S. is deploying some Patriots to Slovakia (not that it is under attack). At the start of the war Ukraine had about 100 batteries of S-300s with as many as 300 launchers. They have lost at least 21 launchers according to video evidence. NATO members Bulgaria (4 launchers) and Greece (32 launchers, 175 missiles) also have S-300s.
The U.S. Congress just approved another aid package for Ukraine, this one for $800 million. It includes 18 155mm Howitzers, 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones (in addition to the 100 already committed in Ukraine), 200 M-113 APCs, more Javelin AT missiles, and Claymore directed mines. On March 16 the White House approved 800 Stingers (mentioned above), 2,000 Javelins, 6,000 AT4 AT launchers, 1,000 M-72 LAW, 100 unnamed drones, etc. On 6 April the U.S. announced it was providing $100 worth of Javelins and 100 Switchblade drones. It appears that the U.S. provided 18 155mm Howitzers with their 40,000 rounds are arriving in Eastern Europe ((guessing Poland) and that training of Ukrainian troops with the weapons starts in a few days.
The European Union has also provided another 500 million euros of aid. Total aid provided by the EU since the war began is 1.5 billion euros.
Poland is reported to have provided 100 T-72s with improved IR sights to Ukraine and also some BWP-1 IFVs. The transferred may have occurred a few days ago.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From where? What will be their training? How long will it take?
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. There have been only limited protests in the last couple of weeks. An anti-war protest concert was held in Moscow. It ended with the musicians arrested, but they police were polite enough to let him finish. See video (0:31): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e6urbBa-HY
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 82.37 to a dollar as of 10:01 AM EST. This is “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $109.27 as of 10:01 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). The current Wikipedia article on the Russian economy says that roughly 40% of Russian federal budget comes from the oil and gas sector.
The value of the ruble seems to have stabilized at around 82 per dollar and oil prices at around $100-110. Lower oil prices do undercut the Russian government budget.
It has been estimated by the World Bank that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by an estimated 45.1% this year (which is a surprising precise estimate in the middle of a war).
Casualties: The UN is reporting on 18 April 2,072 civilians confirmed dead in the war, 79 are in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming more than 10,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. Finally got an update on Ukrainian losses, as Zelensky told CNN on 15 April that Ukrainian Army had lost between 2,500-3,000 troops since the fighting has begun and about 10,000 have been wounded (wounded-to-killed ratio of 4.00- or 3.33-to-1). This is the first update on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 7 April March that they had 979 soldiers killed and 4,265 wounded (4.36-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. A third prisoner exchange has just been announced that released 12 Ukrainian soldiers and 14 civilians. A fourth prisoner exchange has just been concluded that released 22 soldiers and officers and 8 civilians. The number of Russians released in these last two exchanges has not been provided. BBC Russian Service as of 5 April has counted 1,083 confirmed killed, of which 217 are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels and 31 majors. This is certainly an undercount. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.
U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There was a report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).
“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.
It is now reported that a seventh Russian general has been killed. The previously reported death was of Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49) has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135 and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
0900, 30 March 0800, 13 April
Tanks: 336 485
AFVs: 239 258
IFVs: 320 516
APCs: 79 95
Jet aircraft: 15 18
Helicopters: 32 30
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. They claimed as of 13 April they have destroyed 739 tanks, 1,964 armored personnel vehicles, 158 aircraft and 143 helicopters. They also claim 19,800 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims. We assume personnel claims are also inflated.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
0900, 30 March 0800, 13 April
Tanks: 79 107
AFVs: 62 73
IFVs: 60 82
APCs: 29 39
Jet aircraft: 10 13
Helicopters: 1 3
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that more than 9,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + at least 2,000 more (Russian Army) + 3,000 (Ukrainian Army) + 2,072 (Civilians) + 979 (DPR) = 9,402). It is probably in excess of 10,000 total deaths depending on Russian military deaths and the real count of civilian losses. The number of deaths of Mariupol are unverified and unknown.
If Ukrainian military deaths are between 2,500 and 3,000, then I assume Russian military deaths are at least as many. Ukraine is claiming as of 17 April that 20,300 Russian and DPR soldiers have been killed, Russians are claiming as of 16 April that 23,367 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Are both sets of figures similarly inflated?
The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 or 20,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. If Donbass has lost 979 reported killed, then Russian losses would be expected to be higher than that, maybe three times or more? How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.
Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).
There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me. One of them appears to have bought into the claims of at least 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. I think that is questionable.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. On the morning of 16 April in the Lvov region, Ukraine claimed it downed four cruise missiles fired by Su-35s operating from Belarus.
End of the War: Putin has declared that the peace talks are at a “dead end.” Not sure if that is a negotiating tactic and a new determination to drag a victory out of an otherwise not particularly successful war. I lean towards to the latter. This is his first public remarks on the war in almost a month, so it does appear that he intends to continue it.
Now, I did not expect any serious progress on negotiations until after they took Mariupol. It is still hanging on. On the other hand, it does look like they intend to take and hold onto all of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, and possibly all of Kherson province and four-fifths of Zaporizhzhia province. The capital Zaporizhzhia (pop. 722,713) may not be on their list of areas to take. So, four out of Ukraine’s 24 provinces and Crimea.
Populations of partly or completely occupied areas (2019 estimates):
Donetsk: 4,165,901
Lugansk: 2,151,833
Crimea: 2,033,700 (2001 census)
Zaporizhzhia: 1,705,836
Kherson: 1,037,640
Sevastopol: 509,992 (2021 estimate)
Population of Ukraine (excluding Crimea), 2022 estimate: 41,167,336
What they are willing to later negotiate away to achieve peace or a ceasefire is unknown. When they are ready to return to talks is unknown. This is beginning to look like an extended war.
Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. The latest figure (12 April) is that 403 civilians were killed in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. Additional reports from Ukraine have put the body count of civilians found in the towns and villages surround Kiev at 1,222. This has not been independently confirmed.
There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.
Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.
Finland and Sweden are seriously discussing joining NATO later this year. Finland is further along in this discussion than Sweden. I assume NATO will welcome them with open arms.
Ukraine may be on the fast track to join the European Union (which was the issue that started all the turmoil in 2013).
The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 19 April. The map is now showing Kreminna in Russian hands as of 18 April. First dated update to the map in 4 April. It is worth looking at the blown up version of the map (link at start of post) in the areas of Sievierodenetsk and Lysychansk.
