International Pariah

It appears that Putin, the current county of Russia, Russian businesses and businessmen, and Russian sports associations have become international pariahs. This is a push-back we have not seen really seen before for a country this large. Even some in the United States were conducting business with Nazi Germany up until the start of World War II.

The extent of the sanctions and pushbacks is extensive. Russian aircraft and airliners are no longer able to fly over most of Europe and most of North America. At least thirty-six countries have employed such restrictions. The diplomats of over 40 countries (including Japan) walked out today at the UN when the Russia foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was remotely speaking. Switzerland, which has been neutral since 1815, has now imposed financial sanctions. Turkey, who Russian has flirted with, has closed the straits to Russian warships. Neutral Sweden, which has avoided armed conflict since 1815, has sent 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Germany has upped its defense budget from 1.3% to 2% of GDP. European and American companies are divesting themselves of Russian holdings, European, Canadian and American sporting bodies are disassociating themselves from Russian sporting bodies. Even some people (like the Munich Philharmonic Orchestra) are disassociating themselves from individual Russians. It is a degree of push-back against a major country that we have not seen in decades.

Now, sorry to offend any of my Russian friends, but this animosity was earned. It has built up over time. Russia has been working against Ukraine for at least two decades, highlighted by the poisoning of Ukrainian politician Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 and the rigged election of Viktor Yanokovich in 2004 (which was overthrown by the Orange Revolution of 2004). Then there was the rather systematic extermination or arrest of journalists and political opponents (Anna Politkovskaya in 2006, Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Alexei Navalny in 2020 and many, many others). Some of the more outrageous stunts was their execution of political opponents in the UK using bizarre means. This includes the killing of Litvinenko in 2006 by radioactive Polonium, the attempted killing of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in 2018 by Novichok nerve agent, which later by accident killed one other English person and was also used against Navalny inside of Russia. Of course, their seizure of Sevastopol and Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent fighting in Ukraine did not do them any favors. Their interference in U.S. elections in 2016 also cost them more friends than it won them. And then there were the sports doping scandals, which were clearly orchestrated by their sporting organizations. So, all these little things have added up. The world appears to have become tired of Russia and all of its transgressions. It appears that the current war with Ukraine was the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The end result is that Russia is getting pushback and unprecedented sanctions for a major country. This appears to be done with widespread popular support. I do get the sense that this is a fundamental change in attitude, and it will be decades for Russia to recover economically and “socially” from this. This was not caused by “anti-Russian” attitudes or a “Russophobic frenzy”, it was caused by Russian behavior. There are probably some people in denial of this, but their arguments are irrelevant. This is what has happened, and Russia has been working hard for two decades to make this happen.

It does raise the question: have we reached a new world order? Are we at the point where states (at least in Europe) are no longer allowed to move borders or annex territories by conventional warfare? Perhaps. There was not widescale condemnation over Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix Formula One race continues, but there will be no Russian Grand Prix in 2022. But, from this time forward, have we reached a point where any attempt to change the borders (in Europe) by force is doomed to fail? We shall see.

And… has this attitude become part of the environment for the rest of the world? Would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan also generate similar pushback economically and socially? Perhaps now. Certainly, the Chinese leadership has to look at what is happening to Russia with some interest.

Are we nearing point where “world public opinion” actually matters? Are we reaching the point where good old fashion conventional conquest is no longer possible? That would be a significant change from the last 6,000 years of human history.

P.S. Companies removing Alex Ovechkin, other Russian NHL players from marketing campaigns

P.P.S. Motorsport UK announces actions in response to the situation in Ukraine

• “No Russian/Belarusian licenced competitors and officials are approved to participate in UK motorsports events.”

P.P.P.S. UN General Assembly vote (no binding power) on resolution “Aggression against Ukraine” co-sponsored by 94 or 96 countries (including Afghanistan): 141 condemning Russia (including Serbia), 5 opposing (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea), 35 abstaining (including China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, South Africa, Armenia, Khazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Iran, Iraq, El Salvador, Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia). Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Venezuala did not vote.