The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 3 (ground actions)

My focus here is on the ground actions. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. Right now, this attack looks pretty unrestrained, but who knows what are Putin actual objectives or at what point he will decide he has done enough. I gather the degree of resistance by the Ukrainian Army may influence these decisions.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is reported to have reached the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl (I wouldn’t want to be those troops). The Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev is under Russian control. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. They are intending to hold and fight for the city. Very different than what we saw in Afghanistan. 

The Russian forces appear to be on the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. It appears they are at least 4 miles from the center. Not sure how aggressively, if at all, they are going to push into the city. The city is open to the west and the south. Reporters moving through those areas are reporting that Ukrainian militia is organizing and training.

Bald and Bankrupt is in Kiev: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caC73CHR-AI

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): There were reports of a landing there on the first day. I still have no idea of the size or location of the landing. Was this a raid or a permanent landing? Are there Russian forces there now? I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): How serious are Russian ground operations? Are they trying to surround and isolate Kharkov? It appears the Ukraine army in this area are putting up a fight. It does appear that most of the videos of captured Russians and destroyed Russian vehicles are coming from there. No real news from Kharkov from the last two days. It does not appear to be any serious push there.

U.S. officials are saying: “But the heaviest fighting we still assess is in and around Kharkiv.” Don’t know what that means and have no details on that. I have not seen any evidence that Russia is in Kharkov or on the outskirts. There are camera’s on youtube showing downtown Kharkov live.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces are under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here. So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Yesterday afternoon there were reports of an amphibious landing of several thousand troops in or near Mariupol. They are reporting heavy fighting near Mariupol, but not in it.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): A day or two ago Russian troops entered Kherson and raised the Russian flag over the administrative building in the middle of the city. By the end of the day yesterday, Ukraine had control of Kherson and some of the area between Crimea and Kherson. This is the second or third successful counterattack we have seen from the Ukranian army. This is tough to do when your opponent has air superiority. It does seem that Russia put out a couple of unsupported airmobile columns to places like Kherson and Antonov airport. This may work if your opponent is folding but does not seem to work as well against an opponent that is determined to fight and to counterattack.

See: Battle rages for strategic bridge in southern Ukraine after days of fighting

There is also fighting reported in Mykolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: It was hard to tell from the videos last night whether there were new demonstrations, or we were just seeing a replay of the demonstrations from Thursday night. I gather there were new demonstrations in St. Petersburg last night. Have not gotten confirmation to the reports that Russia arrested more than 1,700 protesters, but from the videos I have seen, this is completely believable. There was a very large protest in Georgia (the country) last night. Probably because they know they are probably next.

According to a Russian human rights media group OVD-Info the number of detained protesters is 2,692. At least 1,370 were detained in Moscow.

Casualties: No new updates on casualties. It is clear that at least 300 people have died in this conflict.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop, neither who are known to me.

I previously reference a video on youtube called “fight between Russian Sukhoi Su35 v Ukrainian Mig29 over Kyiv.” It appears that it is of two Ukrainian Mig-29s. It appears that at least some of Ukrainian air force has survived the initial attack. AhirTech has posted many other interesting videos.

P.S. Oh, and speaking of hockey: Dominik Hasek calls Ovechkin a …, and wants NHL to suspend all Russians

P.P.S.: Probably not really relevant to anything above, but I still find it interesting. Is this relevant to information operations (IO)?  US lobbying firms rush to cut ties with Russian businesses hit with sanctions