Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 67

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Like the Coronavirus, this weekly blog post never seems to end. It was delayed two days this week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. Probably a limitation at my end. This is weekly update number 67 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. Last week it was 446 new cases. Twenty-five weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe appears to be losing control of the situation again, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 1,530 new cases for Tuesday (just to keep the reporting consistent, and 2,473 cases on Thursday). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to be sliding out of control. They are reporting 37K new cases Tuesday (and 49K new cases yesterday). This is new cases per day! Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day two months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). They reported for France 7K new cases Tuesday (and 11K new cases yesterday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased dramatically to 44K for Tuesday. As for Germany it is only 1,027 new cases Tuesday and for Russia it is up to 24K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 26K new cases Tuesday, and it is continuing to rise. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Tuesday: China (52 on 7/11), Japan is rising (2,396), South Korea continues to rise (1,615), Taiwan (29, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam is rising (2,744 and is up to 4K yesterday), Singapore (26), Australia is rising (106) and New Zealand (4). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7/16, 9:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two extra days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,417….49,616……1,145
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,321….15,372………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,900…..11,943……..141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,210….77,465…..1,124
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….574………576………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,100…..28,207…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,847.….45,993…….510
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,317……4,320………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,222……1,222…..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,555….11,610…..…83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,158…..2,165…..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,251….71,396…1,628
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,608….85,836…1,599
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…404,910…406,151…6,882

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 18 fatalities in the last week compared to 1,241 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%.  The population known to have been infected is 7.57% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 346 new cases on Tuesday. Last week it was 132 cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,246 cases (2,201 last week) and 10 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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