Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 61

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 61 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 916 new cases. Last week it was 1,076 new cases. Nineteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe seems to be slowly bringing the spread of the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 2.5K new cases for yesterday, which is a notable improvement. The UK has had a slight upswing, reporting 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 109,827 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,045 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 126,221 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 24,968 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (595,302 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. Yesterday they reported for France 10K new cases. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 4K, for Germany it is 3K and for Russia 9K new cases a day. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 23K new cases yesterday, which is the same as last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (31), Japan (2,641), South Korea (677), Taiwan (331), Vietnam (193), Singapore (18), Australia (6) and New Zealand (6).

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:24 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. This website has been recently revised and is worth looking at.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….48,822……49,011…..1,135
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,284..….15,291…….256
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,831..….11,837…….137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……76,877.….77,010…..1,103
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….433.………431………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….560.……..567………19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….27,889..….27,940…….278
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,361..….45,438.…..499
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,307..…..4,311………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217..…..1,217..……11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,393……11,428…..…81
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,133….…2,137….…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,743..…70,935…1,604
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……84,876…..85,089…1,573
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….401,726…402,642….6,776

 

The Mortality Rate is 1.68%. There were 156 fatalities in the last week compared to 916 new cases. These odd statistics are driven by Montgomery County adding 67 new cases this last week while Prince Georges added 73 new cases. This was probably just catching up in the record keeping. The population known to have been infected is 7.50% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 70% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 80% or more of the population partially protected.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 59 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 654 cases. Eighteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,147 cases (2,136 last week) and 10 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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