The number of cases from coronavirus is less than it was last week. This is weekly update number 53 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 5,615 new cases. There were 6,914 new cases last week. Eleven weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Twenty-two weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is doing better with 8K new cases reported for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 2K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK. Their death count of 97,431 (population 67.4 million) is the seventh highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,126 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 111,747 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 8K which is a vast improvement, for Spain (7K), Germany (8K) and Russia (8K). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 62K new cases yesterday. This is pretty the same as last week but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (19 cases), Japan (2,615), South Korea (668), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (11), Singapore (24), Australia (14) and New Zealand (7).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:21 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….44,513……45,328…..1,076
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,227……14,464……..249
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,940…….11,100…….129
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..71,411….…72,390…..1,048
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………386.………402………….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………522.……..527………..18
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……25,251.….25,693………271
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……41,934……42,552……..473
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,159.……4,200…….…45
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,169.……1,176…….…12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,150.….10,332……….70
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,879.……1,916…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……66,704.….67,505……1,484
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……78,011.….79,286……1,395
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..371,256…376,871……6,301
This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.67%. This last week there were 51 new fatalities reported out of 5,615 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.91%. The population known to have been infected is 7.02% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather we are nearing 50% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine). So we are looking at 50-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,246 cases (6,166 last week) and 95 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,404 cases (6,347 last week) and 103 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,895 cases (3,834 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,348 cases (5,275 last week) and 78 deaths. This is where UVA is located.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/05) there were 13 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,275 cases (7,196 last week) cases and 142 deaths.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,896 cases (8,780 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,434 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,432 cases. Ten weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,012 cases (1,987 last week) and 8 deaths.
