I have not blogged about Afghanistan in a while, since:
Some Statistics on Afghanistan (April 2020) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Will probably be a addressing it more in the near future. There was New York Times article today that I thought was worthwhile. It is here: The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink
One of the odd things when we were doing the insurgency work on Iraq and our later more theoretical insurgency work, we never were asked by our various contracting agencies to look at Afghanistan in particular. This is odd, as we kind of nailed the prediction on Iraq (see Chapter One of America’s Modern Wars). In the end I do have a chapter on Afghanistan in that book and were asked to brief the military advisor to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in late 2005 and again in late 2008. This also lead to a briefing with the Chairman of NIC.
I still think there is value in having us do an independent analysis of the situation in light of our correct predictions for Iraq and Bosnia (see Appendix II of America’s Modern Wars). I also have a very brief chapter in my book on “Withdrawal and War Termination.” Needless to say, this was a subject I proposed to several agencies that we do more work on, and there was absolutely no interest. So instead I write books. Now, I don’t control the budget over at DOD and other agencies. Sometimes their priorities mystify me.
Chris, that’s the “mystics” part of Mystics & Statistics!
Interesting article in the NYT. It’s tone is similar to other reports I have read about the increasing power and popularity of the Taliban compared to the central government which is seen as corrupt and incompetent. In which case I wonder whether there is any real point in staying and prolonging a costly and doomed war.
I am reminded of the Vietnam war, another “Hearts and Minds” war that was lost by Western allied forces. I am not sure that Western governments and militaries know how to fight a Hearts and Minds Campaign. They just assume it is another shooting war and the damage thus inflicted on the local civilian population means the Taliban/Viet Cong win politically. There seems to be a cultural blindness that prevents Western militaries from formulating a successful strategy. How should a Hearts and Minds war be fought successfully? There may be some clues in the Malayan Insurgency and the East Timor intervention.
Seems to me that Afghanistan is an area around which to build a wall (metaphorically speaking) until feudalism/clanism is ended by the people of Afghanistan. Other models could be advertised/demonstrated/modeled for the viewing pleasure of the populace and consideration of the populace, but it’s the people who will decide; after all, imposed democracy would be an oxymoron.
Contrary to Iraq, Afghanistan seems to be of little strategic value and can be considered a general waste of effort.