Elon Musk poll on Ukraine

Elon Musk just published a poll on Ukraine on his twitter account (@elonmusk). The poll said:

Right now, the voting is 62.4% no.

Musk then following this up with the tweet:  “This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then.” Needless to say, that remark got a few thousand responses, many of them fairly negative.

Now, I do have a section in my periodic Ukraine blog post that reads:

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End of the War: It does look like Russia intends to take and hold onto all of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, and possibly all of Kherson province and four-fifths of Zaporizhzhia province. The capital Zaporizhzhia (pop. 722,713) may not be on their list of areas to take. So, four out of Ukraine’s 24 provinces and Crimea.

Populations of partly or completely occupied areas (2019 estimates):

Donetsk: 4,165,901

Lugansk: 2,151,833

Crimea: 2,033,700 (2001 census)

Zaporizhzhia: 1,705,836

Kherson: 1,037,640

Sevastopol: 509,992 (2021 estimate)

Population of Ukraine (excluding Crimea), 2022 estimate: 41,167,336

What they are willing to later negotiate away to achieve peace or a ceasefire is unknown. Russia has now annexed Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in addition to Crimea and Sevastopol. This sort of indicates that there is no basis for a negotiated settlement. Ukraine is now saying the war will continue until all areas are freed. This looks like an extended war and I don’t think will be over before the end of summer 2023. It may continue for years: So How Long is this War Going to Last? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Possible Outcomes of the War? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

At this point, unless Russia mobilizes, I do think that it will slowly turn to Ukraine’s advantage.

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So, to respond to Elon Musk’s proposed settlement:

1. Not sure “redo elections” is a real option. It is debate-able if Russia would leave if they lost an election. If there was a fair election, Zaporizhzhia and probably Kherson would vote to return to Ukraine. Suspect that would also be the case with Lugansk and Donetsk but can’t say for certain. Russia is certainly not going to support a referendum that it is going to lose four times. That would be even more embarrassing than not holding one. Suspect the choice of what country these provinces will be a part of will be determined by who controls the majority of them through military action when the war does finally end.
2. Crimea may be the one area that could be negotiated, but… Russia will need to hold onto it (which it may not), it cannot be isolated, and Ukraine will have to be pretty tired at that point. At this point, I am thinking there is less chance that Russia can hold onto Donetsk and Lugansk.
3. Water supply for Crimea being assured is certainly something that would be settled in a negotiation.
4. Ukraine is almost certainly joining NATO. After a war that has lasted most of a year and over 30,000 dead, being neutral is really not an option. Russia threw away that option at some point early in the war. No one trusts Russia’s security guarantees.
5. I don’t believe that we are looking at any serious negotiations until fall 2023 at the earliest, unless Russia’s military position completely collapses before then.

Anyhow, this is all speculation.