Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We now have 33 presentations scheduled by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.
If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.
We are looking to add to presentations on Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at. We have set up two potential group discussions: 1) Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?, and 2) Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022. I would prefer a presentation on these subjects, but I do think they need to be addressed regardless.
The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.
Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. I really think that is better than everyone standing in line of Tuesday morning while we collect payment for the conference. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.
We do have five virtual presentations and we are set up for virtual attendees. To date, we have one person who will be attending the first day as a virtual attendee. We do have the option to record the presentations. I am not sure this is something we should do, but open to debating this. It does tend to suppress discussion.
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Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Updated: 23 August 2022
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Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 0930   Introductory remarks (new)               Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
0930 – 1030   Studying Combat (old)                      Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)
1030 – 1130   Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1130 – 1230   Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data
                                                                                   Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1230 – 1400   Lunch
1400 – 1500   How Important are Superior Numbers?                    Â
Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual
1500 – 1600   Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History
Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)
1600 – 1700   TND’s Theory of Combat                 Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)
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Evening (1900):Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Group Dinner – Rangos
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Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare
0900 – 1000   Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1000 – 1100   History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                           Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1100 – 1200   Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1200 – 1300   Lunch
1300 – 1400   Group Discussion: Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?
1400 – 1500   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons              Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1500 – 1600   Contentious Issues in Syria: A Discussion about the Alawi Religion, their Political Struggles, Chemical Warfare in Syria and a Hypothesized Religicide of the Alawis                                          Jennifer Schlacht, M.A.
1600 – 1700   The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.
                                                                       Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)Â
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Evening (1900): Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Group Dinner – BJs
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Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000   The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History
Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)
1000 – 1100   Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons
                                                                                   Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)
1100 – 1200   Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making           Matt Tompkins
1200 – 1300   Lunch
1300 – 1400   Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions
                                                                         Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)
1400 – 1500   The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM
                                                                                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
1500 – 1600   The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1600 – 1700   open
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Evening:         Happy hour – Rangos and/or Hawk and GriffinÂ
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Schedule: Einstein Conference Room
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Day 1: Poster and Book Room
Opened at 0800
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Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare
1400 – 1500   Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45
           Daniel Horvath – virtual
1500 – 1600   Midway and the Aleutians                 Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)
1600 – 1700   Simulation-Based Historical Analysis: a France 1940 Concept
                                               Timothy J. Smith, ONI
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Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 1000   A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?
                                                                                             Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)
1000 – 1100   The Combat Assessment Technique             William Sayers
1100 – 1200   Machine Learning the Lessons of History     Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual
1200 – 1300   Lunch
1300 – 1400   Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept
                                                                                   LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD
1400 – 1500   Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program
                                                                                   LtC. Adam. L. Taliaferro
1500 – 1600   Artillery Suppression: New Analysis of Core Data – virtual
                                   Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes)
1600 – 1700   Urban Warfare (old)                          Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
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Day 3: Researching Operations
0900 – 1000   The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                                                          Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)
1000 – 1100   Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943
                                                                                   Eugene Matyukhin
1100 – 1200   The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44
                                                                                   Dr. Richard Harrison
1200 – 1300   Lunch
1300 – 1400   The Decline of War Since 1950       Â
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
1400 – 1500   Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020
                                                                                   Dr. Alexander Kotts (ARL)
1500 – 1600   Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion
                                                                                   Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual
1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022
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Possible additional sessions:
Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling
Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare
Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis
Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis
