Month April 2022

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail. I also don’t report on all the artillery shelling and missile strikes.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. It seems to be hanging on for far longer than I expected. Not sure why. I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or is it the two cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) in the Donetsk province? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson. 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are not many changes today. A tweet we made yesterday on BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) has gotten attention. We will be posting it up the blog later today. See:  https://twitter.com/dupuyinstitute/status/1513243631066439691

This daily repeated blog post is at around 3,200 words. Debating if I should trim it down and is so, by how much.

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3rd of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army. There are reports of Russian reinforcements east of Kharkov, an eight-mile column.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692).

Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk, just had its rail station hit on 9 April with over 50 civilians killed.

It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day forty-one of the siege. It is clear that Ukraine is making an effort to hang on there. The defenders appear to have broken up into 2 or 3 pockets inside the city. There have been helicopters resupplying. Not sure what forces Ukraine still has there (besides parts of the Azov Regiment). I am still not sure how much longer they can hold out.

The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed, as has also the head of DPR (Donets People’s Republic). The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs. SecDef Lloyd Austin acknowledged on 8 April that the U.S. is providing intelligence to Ukrainian forces. That was obvious from the beginning. Some of the intelligence provided is “near real time.” See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-giving-intel-to-ukraine-for-operations-in-donbas-defense-secretary-says/ar-AAVYrNp?ocid=BingNewsSearch

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.There are reports of Ukrainian activity in area in the last couple of days. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means that Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kharkov at 3 PM: 67 degrees (19 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 44 degrees (7 Celsius). Precipitation forecast for today and the next three days.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Slovakia has now donated S-300 air defense missiles to Ukraine. According to Wikipedia, Slovakia had only one battery with up to 45 missiles. In exchange, the U.S. is deploying some Patriots to Slovakia (not that it is under attack). At the start of the war Ukraine had about 100 batteries of S-300s with as many as 300 launchers. They have lost at least 21 launchers according to video evidence. NATO members Bulgaria (4 launchers) and Greece (32 launchers, 175 missiles) also have S-300s.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From Where? What will be their training? How long will it take?

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 82.03 to a dollar as of 9:12 AM EST. This is “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $98.96 as of 9:14 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).

The value of the ruble seems to have stabilized at 82 per dollar. The oil prices continue to slowly drop. Lower oil prices due undercut the Russian government budget.

It has been estimated by the World Bank that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by an estimated 45.1% this year (which is a surprising precise estimate in the middle of a war). 

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 10 April 1,793 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. A third prisoner exchange has just been announced that released 12 Ukrainian soldiers and 14 civilians. The number of Russians released has not been provided. BBC Russian Service as of 5 April has counted 1,083 confirmed killed, of which 217 are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels and 31 majors. This is certainly an undercount. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135 and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,793 + 767 = 5,211). It may be more like 10,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy. The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. They were saying up to 410 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel, with 150 to 300 in a mass grave in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. The reported body count from Bucha so far is 164.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 11 April, but I see no changes for the last two days. 

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. It seems to be hanging on for far longer than I expected. Not sure why. I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or is it the two cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) in the Donetsk province? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson. 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are not many changes today.

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3rd of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army. There are reports of Russian reinforcements east of Kharkov.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692).

Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk, just had its rail station hit on 9 April with over 50 civilians killed.

It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day forty of the siege. It is clear that Ukraine is making an effort to hang on there. There have been helicopters resupplying. Not sure what forces Ukraine still has there (besides parts of the Azov Regiment). I am still not sure how much longer they can hold out.

The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs. SecDef Lloyd Austin acknowledged on 8 April that the U.S. is providing intelligence to Ukrainian forces. That was obvious from the beginning. Some of the intelligence provided is “near real time.” See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-giving-intel-to-ukraine-for-operations-in-donbas-defense-secretary-says/ar-AAVYrNp?ocid=BingNewsSearch

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. There are reports of Ukrainian activity in area in the last couple of days. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means that Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kharkov at 6 PM: 65 degrees (18 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 50 degrees (10 Celsius). Precipitation forecast on and off for the next ten days.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Slovakia has now donated S-300 air defense missiles to Ukraine. According to Wikipedia, Slovakia had only one battery with up to 45 missiles. In exchange, the U.S. is deploying some Patriots to Slovakia (not that it is under attack). At the start of the war Ukraine has about 100 batteries of S-300s with as many as 300 launchers. They have lost at least 21 launchers according to video evidence. NATO members Bulgaria (4 launchers) and Greece (32 launchers, 175 missiles) also have S-300s.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From Where? What will be their training? How long will it take?

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 82.71 to a dollar as of 11:32 AM EST. This is “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $102.40 as of 11:32 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).

The value of the ruble continues to creep down slowly, while oil prices continue to slowly drop. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 8 April 1,766 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. A third prisoner exchange has just been announced that released 12 Ukrainian soldiers and 14 civilians. The number of Russians released has not been provided. BBC Russian Service as of 5 April has counted 1,083 confirmed killed, of which 217 are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels and 31 majors. This is certainly an undercount. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135 and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,766 + 767 = 5,184). It may be more like 10,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy. The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. They were saying up to 410 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel, with 150 to 300 in a mass grave in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. The reported body count from Bucha so far is 164.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 10 April, but I see no updates since yesterday. 

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or is it the two cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) in the Donetsk province? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson. 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are not many changes today.

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3 of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692).

Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk, just had its rail station hit with dozens of civilians killed.

It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-nine of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs. SecDef Lloyd Austin acknowledged on 8 April that the U.S. is providing intelligence to Ukrainian forces. That was obvious from the beginning. Some of the intelligence provided is “near real time.” See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-giving-intel-to-ukraine-for-operations-in-donbas-defense-secretary-says/ar-AAVYrNp?ocid=BingNewsSearch

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means that Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kharkov at 3 PM: 63 degrees (17 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 50 degrees (10 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers. The U.S. DOD told reporters on 8 April that the Russia could be looking to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight. I don’t know what that really means. Who? From Where? What will be their training? How long will it take?

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 82.71 to a dollar as of 8:42 AM EST. This is “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $102.40 as of 8:42 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).

The value of the ruble continues to creep down slowly, while oil prices continue to slowly drop. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 8 April 1,626 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,626 + 767 = 5,044). It may be more like 10,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy.  The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. They were saying up to 410 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel, with 150 to 300 in a mass grave in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed. The reported body count from Bucha so far is 164.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 9 April. 

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or is it the two cities of Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) in the Donetsk province? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson. 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics.  

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3 of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It is already in danger of being surrounded, with Russian or DPR forces near Bakhmut (pop. 72,310) and Soledar (pop.10,692).

Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

Kramatorsk (pop. 150,084), located just to the south of Sloviansk, just had its rail station hit with dozens of civilians killed.

It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-eight of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means that Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: No more weather reports needed for Kiev. Kharkov at 5 PM: 63 degrees (17 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 41 degrees (5 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days for Kharkov.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the eighth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers.

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 79.18 to a dollar as of 10:12 AM EST. This is stronger “better” than it was before the war began. We gather the Russian government is propping the ruble up. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $100.17 as of 10:14 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).

The value of the ruble continues to creep down slowly, while oil prices continue to slowly drop. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 8 April 1,611 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov is now saying “We have significant losses of troops. It’s a huge tragedy for us.” Not sure how to convert “significant losses” into a numerical value. It is interesting that they announced this. I assume this is to “prep the audience” for a proper casualty report or to set the stage for a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,563 + 767 = 4,981). It may be more like 9,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy.  The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now. They were saying up to 410 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel, with 150 to 300 in a mass grave in Bucha. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 8 April. 

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that they have completely cleared the area around Chernigov (Chernihiv in Ukrainian). Ukrainian forces have driven all the way to the Russian border to the north and east of Chernigov. They have also reclaimed Konotop and driven back the Russian forces in areas around Kharkov. It does appear that Kiev and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

As Ukraine has cleared the areas to the west and northwest of Kiev, there are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence. It is all over the news, so no need to describe it here in detail.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov; or at Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135) and Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and Sumy and everything to west and northwest of Kharkov, and has advanced towards Kherson. 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics.  

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces – i. e. Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The Ukrainian army has cleared the area to the west and northwest of the city, including retaking the large Antonov/Hostomel airport and the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, which is now back under Ukrainian control as of 2 April. They have advanced beyond Chernigov, clearing Kiev to the east and northeast. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved, and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

According to the Pentagon, Russian committed around 1/3 of its forces to taking the capital. This consisted of about 20 BTGs to the north and NW of Kiev and another 20 BTGS near Chernigov. Of the roughly 130 BTGs Russia has dedicated to the invasion, around 80 are still inside Ukraine. More than 30 are already in the Donbas region (eastern Ukraine) and are expected to be joined by some of the forces withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held but is still being shelled. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to be secure all the way to the Russian border. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

Sloviansk (pop. 106,972) to its west is also expected to come under assault.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-seven of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that that more than 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kiev at 4 PM: 67 degrees Fahrenheit (19 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 42 degrees (6 Celsius). Kharkov at 4 PM: 65 degrees (18 Celsius) and sunny. Low tonight 43 degrees (6 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days for both Kharkov.  Kiev is mostly precipitation forcast for the next six days.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the seventh week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers.

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 81.57 to a dollar as of 11:54 AM EST. This is much stronger than it has been since the war began. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $99.12 as of 11:55 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Note that Russia says it received $3.6 million less (302 billion rubles) than it forecast from March old and gas sales. Russia forecasted energy revenue of 790 billion rubles ($9.4 billion) but received around 488 billion rubles., a drop of 38%. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy).

The value of the ruble continues to creep down slowly, while oil prices continue to drop. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 7 April 1,563 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. 

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. A BTG typically consists of 800-1000 troops, maybe ten tanks and 40 IFVs. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,563 + 767 = 4,981). It may be more like 9,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy.  The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now, with over 400 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs. There is a second video showing Ukrainian troops executing what appears to be four Russian prisoners seven miles SW of Bucha. See: https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html. More detailed description from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/61025388. It is on youtube, if you want to look it up. I believe they are members of the Georgian Legion, a group of Georgian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 7 April. The map is showing all of Ukraine to the west and northwest of Kharkov cleared.

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

It does appear that they have completely cleared the area around Chernigov (Chernihiv in Ukrainian). Ukrainian forces have driven all the way to the Russian border to the north and east of Chernigov. They have also reclaimed Konotop and driven back the Russian forces in areas around Kharkov. It does appear that Kiev and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus.

As Ukraine has cleared the areas to the west and northwest of Kiev, there are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW of Kiev. Lots of confirming evidence.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov, or Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135)? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, has cleared the area around Chernigov and to the north and northeast, has advanced towards Kherson, and has advanced to the Russian border to the east of Sumy at Krasnopillya (pop. 7,849). 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I did yesterday’s blog post on a diet. Go back to the Day 40 post of 4 April to find all the old links and discussions I had. I took them out of this post and the posts going forward. 

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The Ukrainian army has cleared the area to the west and northwest of the city, including retaking the large Antonov/Hostomel airport and the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, which is now back under Ukrainian control as of 2 April. They have advanced beyond Chernigov, clearing Kiev to the east and northeast. The city is open from all directions. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. It has been relieved and the Ukrainian Army holds the areas to the north and east of the city. It appears that the Russian troops withdrew from the area, vice being pushed back.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov looks to be securely held. Some areas to the east and northwest of the city have been retaken by the Ukrainian Army.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to no longer be in danger. The Russians have withdrawn from Konotop (pop. 84,787). The governor of Sumy Oblast reported on 4 April that Russian troops no longer occupied any towns or villages in the Oblast and had mostly withdrawn.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-six of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that nearly 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

It is reported that Ukrainian helicopters were resupplying Mariupol with multiple low-level flights. This does harken back to the attack on Belgorod. See: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Apparently, they were eventually intercepted by Russian mobile SAMs.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson? This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kiev at 4 PM: 53 degrees Fahrenheit (12 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 41 degrees (5 Celsius). Kharkov at 4 PM: 55 degrees (13 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 44 degrees (7 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days for both Kiev and Kharkov.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Not sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles. Czech Republic is providing them with “dozens” of T-72 tanks and BMP-1s. I gather other members of NATO are going to follow shortly. As of 1 Jan 2019, the Czech Army had 86 T-72M1, 30 T-72M4CZ, 145 BVP-1 (BMP-1 variant) and 185 BVP-2 (BMP-1 variant). They had no other tanks in their inventory, so were certainly due for an upgrade.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the sixth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers.

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 83.75 to a dollar as of 9:12 AM EST. This is much stronger than it has been since the war began. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $107.38 as of 9:13 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

The value of the ruble and the oil prices appear to have stabilized.

Casualties: The UN is reporting on 6 April that at least 1,563 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. 

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,563 + 767 = 4,981). It may be more like 9,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

It is clear that Russia has withdrawn from the areas of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. Not sure how much of this is military strategy or negotiating strategy.  The rumor is that they are going to withdraw from Kherson and hold behind the Dnieper River. We shall see.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now, with over 400 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 6 April.

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

Probably the biggest news of the last few days is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev, effectively securing Kiev. There are also multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). I do not think it is going to be relieved. Ukrainian Army remains over 60 miles away.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov, or Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135)? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, is clearing the area east of Kiev, has advanced to the outskirts of Kherson, and has advanced to the Russian border to the east of Sumy at Krasnopillya (pop. 7,849). 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have put this repeated blog post on a diet, although I only got it down to 2417 words. Go back to the Day 40 post of 4 April to find all the old links and discussions I had. I took them out of this post and the posts going forward. 

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is secure, no longer under assault or in danger. The Ukrainian army has cleared the area to the west and northwest of the city, including retaking the large Antonov/Hostomel airport and driving as far as the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, which is now back under Ukrainian control as of 2 April. The city is open to the south and west and the Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks to the east of Kiev. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

There are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) is located to the NNE of Kiev. The city remains under Ukrainian control and partly surrounded. The town of Slavutych (pop. 24,685) to the west, which was taken by the Russians on 25 March, was re-taken by the Ukrainians on 31 March.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after an oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. It looks like all action in and around Kharkov has pretty much halted, with the Russians reported digging in. 

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to no longer be in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787), although the Ukrainian neo-fascist mayor has remained in charge there.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-five of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that nearly 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Are the Ukrainians going to make a push to take Kherson. This would appear to give them an advantage in the on-going negotiations.  

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is secure as are the cities to the north. I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack. 

Weather: Kiev at 4 PM: 42 degrees Fahrenheit (6 Celsius) and showers. Low tonight 37 degrees (3 Celsius). Kharkov at 4 PM: 47 degrees (8 Celsius) and cloudy. Low tonight 41 degrees (5 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days for both Kiev and Kharkov.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: Now sure how large the army now is (assume over 200,000). There is a Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force of 100,000 to 200,000. There are some foreign volunteers (including two Chechen battalions who have been there all along). Not sure if the foreign volunteers that have arrived since the war started number more than a few hundred that have been deployed. Lots of individual stories, I don’t see any statistics.

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the sixth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers.

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 83.68 to a dollar as of 9:32 AM EST. This is much stronger than it has been since the war began. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $108.53 as of 9:33 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Casualties: The UN is reporting for 3 April 1,430 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Not sure this figure picks up all the claims from newly liberated Bucha. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 10 and maybe as many as 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. 

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army (age 49). His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   0900, 30 March

Tanks:            336                  

AFVs:             239          

IFVs:               320

APCs:               79

Jet aircraft:      15

Helicopters:     32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                 0900, 30 March

Tanks:           79

AFVs:            62

IFVs:              60

APCs:            29

Jet aircraft:   10

Helicopters:    1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,430 + 767 = 4,848). It may be more like 9,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage” from combat, and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. This story is continually being updated right now, with over 400 civilians claimed to have been found dead between Bucha and Hostomel. The deputy mayor of Bucha says that 50 of the victims have been confirmed as extrajudicially executed.

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 5 April, giving the “military situation as of 03:03, Tuesday, April 5, 2022”, but I don’t think it has been updated since yesterday.

A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map

Probably the biggest news of the last few days is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev, effectively securing Kiev.

I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (I have been saying this for days and it still hangs on). There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya a week ago (Sunday before last) and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a still a long way away in war.

This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov, or Siervierdonetsk (pop. 101,135)? 

Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). Russia has taken all of Izium (pop. 45,884) as of 1 April. On the other hand, it appears the Ukrainian forces have completely cleared the area west and northwest of Kiev, is clearing the area east of Kiev, has advanced to the outskirts of Kherson, and has advanced to the Russian border to the east of Sumy at Krasnopillya (pop. 7,849). 

I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I am going to put this repeated blog post on a diet tomorrow and get it back down below 2,000 words. It is getting a little long. I also have a series of other posts on the war that are relevant:

How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Russian casualties? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So, is this war really stalemated? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Does Russia have chemical warfare capability? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

International Pariah | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Contested Air Space over Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

We are looking at six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev – secure

2. Odessa – secure

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): It appears that Kiev is no longer under assault or in danger. The Ukrainian army has cleared the area to the west and northwest of the city, including retaking the large Antonov/Hostomel airport and driving as far as the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, which is now back under Ukrainian control as of 2 April. The city is open to the south and west and the Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks to the east of Kiev. It appears that all of Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper River, except for the areas around Kherson, are under Ukrainian control.

So, Russia either withdrew like it said it would, or the Ukrainians threw them forcefully back, or some combination of the two. Regardless, it looks like Kiev is now safe and secure. On the other hand, there are reports coming out of Bucha, NW of Kiev, of massacres of civilians. These are addressed below.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The city remains under Ukrainian control and partly surrounded. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. The latest maps are showing that it is no longer isolated. The town of Slavutych (pop. 24,685) to the west, which was taken by the Russians on 25 March, was re-taken by the Ukrainians on 31 March.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be secure for now, but not completely safe. Russian did rain down missiles around Odessa the night of 3/4 April, although there were no casualties reported. They appear to be going after a oil refinery and fuel depots.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. It looks like all action in and around Kharkov has pretty much halted, with the Russians reported digging in. 

Sumy (pop. 259,660) appears to no longer be in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787), although the Ukrainian neo-fascist mayor has remained in charge there.

Izium (pop. 45,884) was confirmed by the Ukrainian military to be under Russian control as of 1 April. Russia claimed to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March.

The Ukrainians have conducted a helicopter strike using missiles at a fuel depot near Belgorod, inside of Russia. This is a town I have been to a couple of times researching the Battle of Kursk. I don’t recognize the area (1:25): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66XrGQcKnJc. They had previously hit an ammo dump near Krasny Oktyabr around 30 March. See (1:15): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKqhr_pWYbA

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 22% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious.

Sievierodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day thirty-four of the siege and not sure how much longer they will hold out. The population of the city is down to 170,000 or less. The Russians have captured the majority of the city. The mayor, who is no longer in the city, is claiming that nearly 5,000 people have been killed. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. The neo-fascist Azov Regiment is posting videos of fighting inside of Mariupol. The kickboxer, Maksim Kagal (30 years old), apparently died on 25 March (Friday) fighting there for them: Kickboxing champion Maksym Kagal died defending Ukraine as part of the controversial Azov unit

Some videos:

Posted 24 March (1:14): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7KTFQXF5D8

Posted 22 March (0.48): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ2sSYNvwJE

Posted 22 March (2:20): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDEIGK3EeyM

Posted March 21 (1:16): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN8wEYmRg-g

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. 

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is under Ukranian control. The latest reports are that the Ukrainian Army is counterattacking outside the city and life has returned to “normal” in the city. I gather that areas to the north, like Vosoznesensk and Nova Odesa have been cleared (it is being showed as such on the attached map). I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack.

The Russians have taken a lot the area between Donetsk and Crimea. Is the seizure of all of Kherson Oblast a negotiating strategy or a military strategy? They now have to garrison it.

There have been more protests in the occupied areas of Ukraine. This video (1:38) is showing recent protests (Sunday, 20 March) in Kherson, Enerhodar (pop. 52,887) and Kakhovka (pop. 35,400), and Berdyansk. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcT9184_fzo. Also see, starting at 1:12 for more Kherson protests : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmo4mTz50xI. These are all in the around to the north of Crimea, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Weather: Kiev at 5 PM: 41 degrees Fahrenheit (5 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 30 degrees (-1 Celsius). Kharkov at 5 PM: 43 degrees (6 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. Low tonight 31 degrees (-1 Celsius). Precipitation forecast off and on for the next ten days for both Kiev and Kharkov.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.

I gather that a few hundred foreign volunteers have also gathered in Ukraine. Do not know if they have reached the front lines. One video (1:06) seems to shows at least one American on the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbc7BBDu9kE. Other videos that include at least two Americans are being shown. This is at least four Americans that have been reported involved in the fighting. See:

(1:27): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlgWI0FzjKc

(0:52): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PssKiwp-6FQ

According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.

Russian Army Build-up:  I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their biannual call-up starts on 1 April, and Putin just signed a decree ordering up 134,500 new conscripts into the army. See the comments in the Day 35 for a discussion on the significance of this. We are now in the fifth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? Not sure how serious to take claims that Syria is promising 40,000 soldiers. It looks like the Russian Army is adding a couple of thousand volunteers.

Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 86.88 to a dollar as of 10:54 AM EST. This is much stronger than it has been. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $107.87 as of 10:54 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.

Casualties: The UN is reporting for 2 April 1,417 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming almost 5,000 civilians killed in Mariupol alone. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia claimed by 2 March to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying (March 9) that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. There have been no updates on Ukrainian Army losses since 12 March.

Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 31 March that they had 767 soldiers killed and 3,559 wounded (4.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. The Ukrainians are as of 20 March to hold 562 Russian soldiers as prisoners, with 10 previously released in prisoner exchanged for 5 Ukrainian soldiers and the Mayor of Melitopol. Subsequent exchanges have released 10 and maybe as many as 96 Russian soldiers and 11 Russian civilians, in exchange for 96 Ukrainian soldiers and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors. The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports. The Russian Army stated on March 25 that 1,351 soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded. This is a 2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which is still pretty low, but at least is more believable than some other estimates. 

U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed (March 18). In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. NATO is claiming 7,000 to 15,000 killed (March 23). There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March).

“Officials” are now claiming that 20 of the 115-120 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are “no longer combat effective” due to losses. It is hard to square this estimate with claims of 10,000 or more Russian soldiers killed.

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is now reported that a sixth Russian general has been killed, Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezanstev of the 49th Combined Arms Army. His death has still not been confirmed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. 

During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam:  Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970

Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

                   7 March    11 March   17 March   23 March  0900, 30 March

Tanks:            141           179             230            267             336                  

AFVs:               89           108             148            179             239          

IFVs:               131           158             211            259             320

APCs:               52             61               69              78               79

Jet aircraft:      10             11                11              12               15

Helicopters:     11             11                30              32               32

The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 29 March they have destroyed 597 tanks, 1,710 armored personnel vehicles, 127 aircraft and 129 helicopters. They also claim 17,200 Russian soldiers killed. These figures look to be inflated, especially the aircraft and helicopter claims.

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

                7 March    11 March   17 March   23 March   0900, 30 March

Tanks:           46            49              66              73                79

AFVs:            38            42              48              59                62

IFVs:              33            36              43              53                60

APCs:            18            19              24              27                29

Jet aircraft:     6              7                8              10                10

Helicopters:    0              0                1                1                  1

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 5,000 people have died in this conflict (1,351 + 1,300 + 1,417 + 767 = 4,835). It may be more like 9,000 total deaths as I think both Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are being underreported. 

Ukrainian and Russian military deaths are a very uncertain subject. Pretty hard not to believe that the Ukrainians have not suffered at least 3,000 to 4,000 combatants killed since the start of the war. It may be higher. I have seen no new reports or estimates since 12 March. 

The Russian claims are also very nebulous with lots of people hanging onto a figure of 10,000 or 15,000 killed. There are lots of reasons to doubt these high claims. It is clear the Russian military deaths are 3,000 killed or higher. How much higher is not well supported by any reliable claims.

Both sides have claimed a similar number of troops captured (572 Ukrainians captured by 2 March vs 572 Russians captured by 20 March).

There are people doing a more detailed job of tracking losses on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.

Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. 

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, originally provided four conditions for a cease fire:

1. Ukraine ceases military action,
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

I gather they have reached a compromise on Crimea, which is to discuss it in 15 years from now, but that is all.

The reports splashed everywhere that Ukrainian leaning Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and two Ukrainians were poisoned at the peace talks is questionable. A U.S. intelligence official has suggested that their sickening is due to “an environmental factor.”

The defenders of Snake Island were released in a prisoner exchange on 24 March and the commander, Roman Hrybov, famous for his quote (“Russian warship…”), is back in Ukraine. Ukraine is apparently going to issue out a stamp in honor of his quote. Not quite “Give me liberty or give me death,” but close enough. See: Ukrainian Snake Island border-guard member who told off a Russian warship has been released from captivity, military says

Atrocities: The stories coming out of Bucha are pretty appalling. At least seven civilians have been reported killed in incidents not related to combat, 18 civilians were found dead in a basement, and another 20 civilians were found lying dead in the street, two with hands bound. The mayor of Bucha says they were executed. There are other claims scattered about Ukraine. How extensive and widespread this is still not certain, but this appears to be well beyond what one would expect from “collateral damage,” and some appears to be deliberate. It does indicate, as a minimum, a lack of military discipline in some Russian units. 

There is also a video out there of Ukrainian soldiers shooting several Russian prisoners in their legs.

Other Issues: Azerbaijani troops have occupied an area in Nagorno-Karabakh that they are claiming is theirs. The Russian peacekeeping troops there have not expelled them.

The Map: The attached map is from Wikipedia, which is under pressure from the Russian government to change its articles. It is dated 4 April. It is now showing considerable updates, including Kiev being cleared completely to its west with drives dated 30 March, 31 March and 1 April. It showing a drive dated 1 April to the east of Kiev. Near Chernigov it is showing Slavutych retaken as of 31 March. Chernigov appear to be no longer isolated. It is showing the area behind Sumy as much more open. It is showing Izium taken by the Russians as of 1 April.

It is showing other changes in the front lines, and has an arrow dated 27 March showing a Ukrainian advance all the way to the village of Krasnopillya, just to the east of Sumy and on the border with Russia. The rest of the map is not dating anything since 22 March, although other parts of the front line trace have been updated since then. It does not show the attacks into Russian territory. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.