Month March 2022

Nothing much changing on the ground yet. Russia continues to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768); and have taken Kherson (pop. 283,649).

The big story is what appears to be the coming major attacks on Kiev and Kharkov. These are going to start either today or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It does take time to deploy all the reinforcements. This appear to be properly organized and supplied attacks with artillery support, and so forth. 

Right now, neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Is Russia going to try to surround one or both cities before going in (which does take some manpower) or are they just going to try to go in, under the assumption that under major pressure, the Ukrainians will fold? While the Russians are clearly concentrating considerable force to the north of both Kiev and Kharkov, is it not known to this writer how many trained Ukranian forces are defending each of these cities, is it 4,000 or 40,000? 

In a real sense, this first phase of this campaign is over, and Russia clearly did not win it. Now, having tried for the cheap and easy victory using “forward detachments,” now comes the serious fighting to either isolate and/or take Kiev and Kharkov. This is a new second phase of the campaign. My sense is that if these two cities hold out, then this war will probably be terminated sooner rather than later.

There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces to the east and the west of it. They already have the city partially enveloped. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

There are rumors that Belarus is about the join the war on Russia’s side. The Belarusian Armed Forces has only 46,000 soldiers, and their contribution on the ground will be much less than that. Not sure what their morale and training is, but back in 2020 Lukashenko was nearly overthrown by popular protests. I doubt he is any more loved now.

Update: Lukashenko is saying it is not happening.

 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south, although some reports have claimed otherwise.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the fifth day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): The Russian push into Kharkov failed the day before yesterday. They have received reinforcements from Belgorod. Whether they are going to attack the city or envelop it first is yet to be seen. They did conduct some random shelling of the city yesterday that did not appear to have any military objective, only caused civilian casualties.  

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. Not sure if Russia is going to attack it. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): I gather Kherson fell to Russia yesterday, although not much has been reported on this. I gather Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea.

 

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is around 6,400. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exhange rate: 103 rubles to a dollar (maybe, could be worse). 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $103.38 (at 09:05)

 Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 406 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is “only” reporting 352. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured over 470 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 15 captured. Ukraine is reporting almost 200 captured. It is clear that at least 600 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

The attached map is from Wikipedia. View with caution.