Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Just saw this series of interviews today from 1420. Looks like it was mostly done around St. Petersburg. There are a couple of interesting interviews there: Do Russians feel the sanctions now?
Previous post: 1420 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so.
This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov?
It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). They have also taken parts of Izium (pop. 45,884).
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have trimmed some more out of this post. Trying to keep the word count below 2,000 (it is at 1,977). I also have a series of other posts on the war that are relevant:
Russian casualties? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, is this war really stalemated? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Does Russia have chemical warfare capability? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
International Pariah | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Contested Air Space over Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
I will update this post during the day as I find more information.
We are looking six major areas of operations right now.
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army have occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev, the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district), the outskirts of Irpin to the west of Kiev, and are on the outskirts of Brovary to the east of Kiev. The center of the city appears peaceful. The city is still open to the south. The Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks west of Kiev. The Ukrainian Army reports they have re-taken Makariv (pop. 10,300), which is due west of Kiev. They are also claiming that 80% of Irpin is under Ukrainian control. They have also re-occupied some villages to the east of Kiev.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. They are shelling the city and for all practical purposes, it is isolated.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. It looks like all action in and around Kharkov has pretty much halted, with the Russians reported digging in.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787), although the Ukrainian neo-fascist mayor has remained in charge there.
Izium (pop. 45,884) is reported under siege. Russian claim to have taken full control of Izium on the morning of 24 March. This is denied by Ukraine. Apparently, the northern part of the city is in Russian hands, while the southern part is surrounded but still under Ukrainian control. Ukraine is reporting fighting near Kamianka (just SE of Izium) and Tykhotske (further SE of Izium).
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.25-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 11% casualties, which is pretty serious.
Severodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day twenty-four of the siege. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. BBC was reporting that Russian tanks are near the center of the city. Details are sparse.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is under Ukranian control. The latest reports are that the Ukrainian Army is counterattacking outside the city and life has returned to “normal” in the city. I gather that areas to the north, like Vosoznesensk and Nova Odesa have been cleared (it is being showed as such on the attached map). I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack.
The Russians have taken a lot the area between Donetsk and Crimea. Is the seizure of all of Kherson Oblast a negotiating strategy or a military strategy? They now have to garrison it.
There has been more protests in the occupied areas of Ukraine. This video (1:38) is showing recent protests (Sunday, 20 March) in Kherson, Enerhodar (pop. 52,887) and Kakhovka (pop. 35,400), and Berdyansk. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcT9184_fzo. Also see, starting at 1:12 for more Kherson protests : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmo4mTz50xI. These are all in the around to the north of Crimea, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Weather: Kiev at 2 PM: 50 degrees Fahrenheit (10 Celsius) and mostly sunny. It is supposed to rain Saturday. Low tonight 34 degrees (1 Celsius). Kharkov at 5 PM: 54 degrees (12 Celsius) and sunny. Low tonight 30 degrees (-10 Celsius). It looks to be mostly cold and clear for the next four or five days and then several days of rain arrives at both Kharkov and Kiev.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.
I gather that a few hundred foreign volunteers have also gathered in Ukraine. Do not know if they have reached the front lines. One video (1:06) seems to shows at least one American on the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbc7BBDu9kE. There is also a video of Brazilians in combat in Ukraine.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. Their annual call-up starts on 1 April. We are now in the fifth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? Not sure how serious to take claims that Syria is promising 40,000 soldiers.
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus.
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 99.50 to a dollar as of 8:50 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $115.81 as of 8:50 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Casualties: The UN is reporting for 23 March 1,035 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming 2,500 civilians killed in Mariupol alone (15 March). Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed (or 3,000 to 10,000 as of 18 March, which is kind of too broad a range to be a useful estimate).
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.53-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed. In the past they claimed around 5,000 to 6,000 Russian soldiers killed. Not sure why the lower end of this estimate has declined. In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March). The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports.
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
Reportedly now five Russian generals have been killed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 14 and 24 March they have destroyed 530 tanks (24 March), 1,279 armored vehicles (14 March), 108 aircraft (24 March) and 95 helicopters (14 March). They also claim 15,800 Russian soldiers killed (24 March).
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 4,000 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 7,000 total deaths.
There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine. March 24 it was reported that more than 250 Russian sorties were flown, mostly around Kiev and Kharkov.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down.
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:
These same demands were made at the talks with Ukraine 10 March in Turkey. Needless to say, these talks went nowhere, as is the case with subsequent talks.
The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 25 March. The map is showing no changes in the front line since 22 March. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.
For those interested, Oxxxymiron’s Russians Against War (RAW) concert in London is on now. They are trying to raise $1,000,000 for “Help for Ukrainian Refugees.” The Youtube link is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgbA6RWlSEI
Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so.
This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov?
It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I also have a series of other posts on the war that are relevant:
Russian casualties? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, is this war really stalemated? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Does Russia have chemical warfare capability? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
International Pariah | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Contested Air Space over Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
I will update this post during the day as I find more information.
We are looking six major areas of operations right now.
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army have occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev, the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district), the outskirts of Irpin to the west of Kiev, and are on the outskirts of Brovary to the east of Kiev. The center of the city appears peaceful. The city is still open to the south. The Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks west of Kiev. The Ukrainian Army reports they have re-taken Makariv (pop. 10,300), which is due west of Kiev. They claim to have raised a Ukrainian flag in the center of the town. They are also claiming that 80% of Irpin is under Ukrainian control.
Supplies: In an interview on 11 March with two former heavy weight boxing champions, the Klitschko brothers, one who is now mayor of Kiev, they stated that: 1) there are nearly 2 million people left in Kiev (out of 3.5 million), 2) they have enough provisions to last two weeks, 3) the supply lines in and out remained open, and 4) they currently have electricity, heating, gas and water.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. They are shelling the city and for all practical purposes, it is isolated.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.
Supplies: According to one account I have heard, there is still some food available, but they have been shelling residential areas.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787), although the Ukrainian neo-fascist mayor has remained in charge there.
Izium (pop. 45,884) is reported under siege.
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.25-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 11% casualties, which is pretty serious.
Severodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day twenty-three of the siege. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. BBC is reporting that Russian tanks are near the center of the city. Details are sparse.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is under Ukranian control. The latest reports are that the Ukrainian Army is counterattacking outside the city and life has returned to “normal” in the city. I gather that areas to the north, like Vosoznesensk and Nova Odesa have been cleared (it is being showed as such on the attached map). I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack.
The Russians have taken a lot the area between Donetsk and Crimea. Is the seizure of all of Kherson Oblast a negotiating strategy or a military strategy? They now have to garrison it.
There has been more protests in the occupied areas of Ukraine. This video (1:38) is showing recent protests (Sunday, 20 March) in Kherson, Enerhodar (pop. 52,887) and Kakhovka (pop. 35,400), and Berdyansk. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcT9184_fzo. Also see, starting at 1:12 for more Kherson protests : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmo4mTz50xI. These are all in the around to the north of Crimea, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Weather: Kiev at 5 PM: 44 degrees Fahrenheit (7 Celsius) and mostly cloudy. It is supposed to rain this evening. Low tonight 36 degrees (2 Celsius). Kharkov at 5 PM: 52 degrees (11 Celsius) and sunny. Low tonight 32 degrees (0 Celsius). It looks to be mostly cold and clear for the next 10 or so days. Some rain is being forecast.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.
I gather that a few hundred foreign volunteers have also gathered in Ukraine. Do not know if they have reached the front lines. One video (1:06) seems to shows at least one American on the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbc7BBDu9kE. There is also a video of Brazilians in combat in Ukraine.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. We are now in the fifth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? Not sure how serious to take claims that Syria is promising 40,000 soldiers.
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus.
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 98.23 to a dollar as of 11:04 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $119.92 as of 11:04 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Casualties: The UN is reporting for 24 March 1,035 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming 2,500 civilians killed in Mariupol alone (15 March). Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed (or 3,000 to 10,000 as of 18 March, which is kind of too broad a range to be a useful estimate).
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.53-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). U.S. officials are claiming figures between 3,000 to 10,000 soldiers killed. In the past they claimed around 5,000 to 6,000 Russian soldiers killed. Not sure why the lower end of this estimate has declined. In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see my posts on the subject of 22 and 24 March). The BBC has counted 557 confirmed killed through 21 March based upon individual Russian media reports.
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
Reportedly now five Russian generals have been killed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 14 and 24 March they have destroyed 530 tanks (24 March), 1,279 armored vehicles (14 March), 108 aircraft (24 March) and 95 helicopters (14 March). They also claim 15,800 Russian soldiers killed (24 March).
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 4,000 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 7,000 total deaths.
There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. March 22 it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. Sources: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-e4ccdd9cf82e868ad8854f6f97cadb27 and https://news.yahoo.com/russian-airstrike-hits-western-ukraine-130003596.html and New York Times (see: Russia strikes base near Polish border, killing 35).
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:
These same demands were made at the talks with Ukraine 10 March in Turkey. Needless to say, these talks went nowhere, as is the case with subsequent talks.
The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 24 March. It is showing Voznesensk and Nova Odesa clear and Chernigov under siege. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.
This is a follow-up post to my post from Tuesday morning: So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
We currently have four casualty reports coming out claiming extremely high casualties for the Russian Army in Ukraine. They are:
What also gets my attention is that Ukrainian Army losses are reported to be:
Now, it is not unheard of for an army to achieve a three-to-one kill ratio during a campaign. This happened at lot on the Russian Front in World War II (1941-1945) between Germany and Russia, with Germany usually getting the better of this exchange. It happened at the Battle of Kursk in July 1943, with Germany getting the better of this exchange, even though the Russians were on the defensive, well rested, and in prepared positions (I have a couple of books on this). Even higher exchange ratios happened in the two Arab-Israeli Wars of 1967 and 1973, with the Israeli’s getting the better of this exchange. So, it is possible.
On the other hand, the Russians, with superior firepower and air superiority, are losing at potentially an exchange of over seven-to-one if we use the higher estimates of Russian losses. This is a hard sale.
Added to that, these estimates are indicating total losses of 40,000 or greater out of a force of 150,000 (more than 25% losses). Assuming a more reasonable three-to-one wounded to killed ratio (and maybe five-to-one might be even more reasonable), then the figure of 9,861 points to 40,000 losses. The NATO figure estimates 15,000 killed and up to 40,000 casualties. This is a 1.67-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio. If we go with a more reasonable estimate of 3-to-1 wounded-to-killed, this would mean 60,000 casualties, or 40% of the invading Russian Army. This is hard to believe.
I do not know what Russian losses are. On the other hand, I am having a hard time accepting some of these higher estimates. If Ukrainian losses were closer to 10,000 soldiers, then I could believe the higher Russian estimates, but I gather Ukrainian losses are nowhere near 10,000 soldiers.
I do get asked by people about what is the situation inside Russia. Instead of taking my limited view of the situation, I decided the best is to direct you all to a video blog called 1420. This young man in Moscow wanders the streets, asking people questions, and then posting their translated answers on Youtube. Youtube has not been shut down by the Russian government. Some of his recent posts include:
What do Russians think about “Z”?
Do Russians expect the World War 3?
What do Russians think now? 3 weeks after the start.
What do Russians think about NATO?
Do Russians blame the US for special operation?
The interviewer is not known to me. You can evaluate for yourself what these videos tell you.
Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so.
This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov?
It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have trimmed down this post since yesterday, cutting out most of the discussion on generals. I also have a series of other posts on the war that are relevant:
So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, is this war really stalemated? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Does Russia have chemical warfare capability? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
International Pariah | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Contested Air Space over Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
I will update this post during the day as I find more information.
We are looking six major areas of operations right now.
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army have occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev, the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district), the outskirts of Irpin to the west of Kiev, and are on the outskirts of Brovary to the east of Kiev. The center of the city appears peaceful. The city is still open to the south. The Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks west of Kiev. The Ukrainian Army reports they have re-taken Makariv (pop. 10,300), which is due west of Kiev. They claim to have raised a Ukrainian flag in the center of the town. They are also claiming that 70 or 80% of Irpin is under Ukrainian control.
Supplies: In an interview on 11 March with two former heavy weight boxing champions, the Klitschko brothers, one who is now mayor of Kiev, they stated that: 1) there are nearly 2 million people left in Kiev (out of 3.5 million), 2) they have enough provisions to last two weeks, 3) the supply lines in and out remained open, and 4) they currently have electricity, heating, gas and water.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. They are shelling the city and for all practical purposes, it is isolated.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.
Supplies: According to one account I have heard, there is still some food available, but they have been shelling residential areas.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787), although the Ukrainian neo-fascist mayor has remained in charge there.
Izium (pop. 45,884) is reported under siege.
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.25-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 11% casualties, which is pretty serious.
Severodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day twenty-two of the siege. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns. BBC is reporting that Russian tanks are near the center of the city. Details are sparse.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is under Ukranian control. The latest reports are that the Ukrainian Army is counterattacking outside the city and life has returned to “normal” in the city. I gather that areas to the north, like Vosoznesensk and Nova Odesa have been cleared (it is being showed as such on the attached map). I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack.
The Russians have taken a lot the area between Donetsk and Crimea. Is the seizure of all of Kherson Oblast a negotiating strategy or a military strategy? They now have to garrison it.
There has been more protests in the occupied areas of Ukraine. This video (1:38) is showing recent protests (Sunday, 20 March) in Kherson, Enerhodar (pop. 52,887) and Kakhovka (pop. 35,400), and Berdyansk. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcT9184_fzo. Also see, starting at 1:12 for more Kherson protests : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmo4mTz50xI. These are all in the around to the north of Crimea, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Weather: Kiev at 2 PM: a balmy 62 degrees Fahrenheit (17 Celsius) and mostly sunny, low tonight 34 degrees (1 Celsius). Kharkov at 2 PM: 54 degrees and sunny. Low tonight 29 degrees (-2 Celsius). It looks to be mostly cold and clear for the next 10 or so days. Some rain is being forecast.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.
I gather that a few hundred foreign volunteers have also gathered in Ukraine. Do not know if they have reached the front lines. One video (1:06) seems to shows at least one American on the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbc7BBDu9kE. There is also a video of Brazilians in combat in Ukraine.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. We are now in the fourth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? Not sure how serious to take claims that Syria is promising 40,000 soldiers.
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus.
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 100.88 to a dollar as of 8:48 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $119.22 as of 8:49 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Casualties: The UN is reporting for 21 March 953 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming 2,500 civilians killed in Mariupol alone (15 March). Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed (or 3,000 to 10,000 as of 18 March, which is kind of too broad a range to be a useful estimate).
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.53-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). U.S. officials are now claiming figures of around 5,000 to 6,000 Russian soldiers killed. In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured.There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see post of 22 March).
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
Reportedly now five Russian generals have been killed. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 14 March they have destroyed 404 tanks, 1,279 armored vehicles, 81 aircraft and 95 helicopters. They also claim 13,500 personnel killed.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 3,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 6,000 deaths. The U.S. provided estimates are higher. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that more than 13,500 Russian troops were killed as of 15 March.
There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. Yesterday it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. Sources: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-e4ccdd9cf82e868ad8854f6f97cadb27 and https://news.yahoo.com/russian-airstrike-hits-western-ukraine-130003596.html and New York Times (see: Russia strikes base near Polish border, killing 35).
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:
These same demands were made at the talks with Ukraine 10 March in Turkey. Needless to say, these talks went nowhere, as is the case with subsequent talks.
The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 23 March. It is showing Voznesensk and Nova Odesa clear and Chernigov under siege. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.
Looks like Russia is pushing into Mariupol. It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).
They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so.
So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov?
I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have trimmed down this post a little since yesterday. I also have a series of other posts on the war that are relevant:
So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So, is this war really stalemated? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Does Russia have chemical warfare capability? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
International Pariah | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Contested Air Space over Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
I will update this post during the day as I find more information.
We are looking six major areas of operations right now.
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army have occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev, the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district), the outskirts of Irpin to the west of Kiev, and are on the outskirts of Brovary to the east of Kiev. The center of the city appears peaceful. The city is still open to the south. The Ukrainian Army in conducting counterattacks west of Kiev. Ukrainian Army reports they have re-taken Makariv (pop. 10,300), which is due west of Kiev. They claim to have raised a Ukrainian flag in the center of the town.
Supplies: In an interview on 11 March with two former heavy weight boxing champions, the Klitschko brothers, one who is now mayor of Kiev, they stated that: 1) there are nearly 2 million people left in Kiev (out of 3.5 million), 2) they have enough provisions to last two weeks, 3) the supply lines in and out remained open, and 4) they currently have electricity, heating, gas and water.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. They are shelling the city and for all practical purposes, it is isolated.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now.
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.
Supplies: According to one account I have heard, there is still some food available, but they have been shelling residential areas.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).
Izium (pop. 45,884) is reported under siege.
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.25-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 11% casualties, which is pretty serious.
Severodonetsk (pop. 101,135) is being shelled. It might soon come under assault or possibly siege. It does appear like the Russia/Russian separatists are trying to take all of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suspect this will be a point of contention in the peace talks.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day twenty-one of the siege. The city has been decimated, lots of buildings and houses destroyed. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city. Mariupol has no power, gas or water. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns. BBC is reporting that Russian tanks are near the center of the city. Details are sparse.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101) is under Ukranian control. The latest reports are that the Ukrainian Army is counterattacking outside the city and life has returned to “normal” in the city. I gather that areas to the north, like Vosoznesensk and Nova Odesa have been cleared (it is being showed as such on the attached map). I gather this all means the Odessa is safe from overland attack.
The Russians have taken a lot the area between Donetsk and Crimea. Is the seizure of all of Kherson Oblast a negotiating strategy or a military strategy? They now have to garrison it.
There has been more protests in the occupied areas of Ukraine. This video (1:38) is showing recent protests (Sunday, 20 March) in Kherson, Enerhodar (pop. 52,887) and Kakhovka (pop. 35,400), and Berdyansk. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcT9184_fzo. Also see, starting at 1:12 for more Kherson protests : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pmo4mTz50xI. These are all in the around to the north of Crimea, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Weather: Kiev at 4 PM: a balmy 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 Celsius) and sunny, low tonight 35 degrees (2 Celsius). Kharkov at 4 PM: 46 degrees and sunny. Low tonight 31 degrees (-1 Celsius). It looks to be mostly cold and clear for the next 10 or so days.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.
I gather that a few hundred foreign volunteers have also gathered in Ukraine. Do not know if they have reached the front lines. One video (1:06) seems to shows at least one American on the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbc7BBDu9kE. There is also a video of Brazilians in combat in Ukraine.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles. The U.S. has promised an additional 9,000 AT missiles and 800 Stinger AA missiles.
Russian Army Build-up: I have yet to see many reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. We are now in the fourth week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly? Not sure how serious to take claims that Syria is promising 40,000 soldiers.
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000. Russia may be able to add more forces from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus.
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 104.07 to a dollar as of 10:44 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $110.71 as of 10:44 AM EST. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
Casualties: The UN is reporting for 19 March 925 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming 2,500 civilians killed in Mariupol alone (15 March). Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed.
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 17 March that they had 349 soldiers killed and 1,930 wounded (5.53-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). U.S. officials are now claiming figures of around 5,000 to 6,000 Russian soldiers killed. In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. There is report recently released of 9,861 Russians killed and 16,153 wounded (1.64-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). I seriously question that report (see previous post).
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
Reportedly now five Russian generals have been killed: Major General Andrei Sukhovetskiy (age 47), CO 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, was killed on 28 February, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov (age 44), chief of staff 41st Army, was killed near Kharkov on 7 March, Maj. General Andrei Kolesnikov (age 45), was killed on 11 March in action in fighting over Mariuipol, and now Major General Oleg Mityaev (age 46) commander 150th Motorized Rifle Division, was killed near Mariupol on 15 March. Now added to list, but still not confirmed is Lt. General Andrei Mordvichev (age 46), CO Eight Combined Army, killed on 16 March near Kherson. Some sources count a sixth general killed, Chechen warlord Magomed Tushayev, killed just north of Kiev. This has been disputed by Chechnya media. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front. Gerasimov was reportedly killed because he was using an unsecured phone and the Ukrainians were able to track and strike at him and his staff.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The Ukranian Ministry of Defense is claiming as of 14 March they have destroyed 404 tanks, 1,279 armored vehicles, 81 aircraft and 95 helicopters. They also claim 13,500 personnel killed.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 3,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 6,000 deaths. The U.S. provided estimates are higher. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that more than 13,500 Russian troops were killed as of 15 March.
There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day. Yesterday it was reported by the U.S. that Russia flew more than 300 sorties into Ukraine.
Missile Defense: According to Zelenskyy the missile barrage near Lvov on 12 March consisted of 30 missiles, 8 missiles that landed and 22 missiles that were intercepted and shot down. Sources: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-e4ccdd9cf82e868ad8854f6f97cadb27 and https://news.yahoo.com/russian-airstrike-hits-western-ukraine-130003596.html and New York Times (see: Russia strikes base near Polish border, killing 35).
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken Mariupol. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:
These same demands were made at the talks with Ukraine 10 March in Turkey. Needless to say, these talks went nowhere, as is the case with subsequent talks.
The attached map is from Wikipedia. It is dated 22 March. It is showing Voznesensk and Nova Odesa clear and Chernigov under siege. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.
Yesterday, the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda published a report that stated “According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9,861 people killed and 16,153 wounded.”
According to CNN, the article was published Monday at 12:09 AM Moscow time. At 9:56 PM Moscow time the story was updated and removed all references to the death count.
So, this article was updated because 1) this figure embarrassed the Russian government, or 2) the data was incorrect, or update: 3) it could be hackers.
I have two problems with this report:
First, lets look at the wounded to killed ratios, which I have done blog posts on (see: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)) and have a chapter on in my book War by Numbers. The wounded-to-killed ratio is 1.64-to-1. Normally you would expect to see a figure like 3-to-1 or higher.
For example, the other Russian figure released: 498 killed and 1,597 wounded, has a wounded-to-killed ratio of 3.21-to-1. The Donetsk People’s Republic reported as of 17 March 349 killed and 1,930 wounded for a wounded-to-killed ratio of 5.53-to-1. And now suddenly, there is a wounded-to-killed ratio of 1.64-to-1. No war in American history has had a wounded-to-killed ratio that low.
So, either this data is under-reporting the wounded by at least a factor of two, or it is over-reporting the killed by a factor of two.
How does one over-report the killed? Well, this happened with the U.S. data on the Korea War, where the actual number killed in combat was 33,686, along with 2,830 non-battle deaths. But, there were 17,730 other deaths in the U.S. armed forces during the course of war due to natural causes and accidents. Some people lumped these figures together, producing a figure of 54,260 U.S. deaths for the Korea War. This higher figure was even published by the Pentagon (see: How Many Americans Died in Korea?). You will still see that figure banded about on some websites.
Or, someone could have simply typed down the wrong number. Most people, news organizations and this blog do make typos. Regardless, the killed number is suspicious because it does not mesh well with the wounded figure. If, for example, there were three wounded for every killed, then this would mean the Russian casualties were about 40,000, which is very high. This leads us to our second point.
If the Russians lost 40,000 people out of a force of 150,000 this is unusually high losses. Over 25% of the force. Not only is this historically unusually high, but it is kind of hard to imagine. At 25% losses, the Russians would have certainly been stripped of almost all infantry from almost all units, plus a whole lot more. Yet I gather Russia still have units functioning in Ukraine.
Furthermore, it is estimated by the U.S. that Ukrainian losses are 2,000 to 4,000 killed. So, does this mean that Ukrainian Army is achieving a 5-to-1 kill ratio (or merely a 2.5-to-1 kill ratio)? That is a little hard to believe considering the advantages in firepower that the Russian Army has.
And then there is the question of actually how the Ukrainian Army managed to cause 40,000 casualties. The Ukrainians don’t have the firepower the Russians do, and at least during World War II 60% or more of casualties were caused by artillery. So, in that environment how do the Ukrainians suffer 2,000 to 4,000 dead and the Russians suffer 10,000? Were the Russians doing human waves attacks? We do not see evidence of that.
So, while I am hesitant to dismiss this report, I am also hesitant to accept it. One must hold out the possibility that this report is simply wrong.
I do have to ask the question: is this war really stalemated? I see lots of commentators saying so, and even a few articles that the Ukrainians are winning. Yet, the situation on the ground sort of indicates otherwise.
First, Mariupol is about to fall. This is/was a city of 400K+ people, If Russia is still taking major cities, is this war really stalemated?
And then once Mariupol falls, this will certainly free up significant forces. Where do they go and what do they do?
Meanwhile, Chernigov is surrounded, Sumy is almost surrounded, Kharkov is half-surrounded, and Kiev is only open to the south. What would be the focus of the next Russian advance?
Russia still has:
1. Air Superiority,
2. Thousands of tanks, and
3. Lots of firepower.
They may have been attritted by 5 to 10%, but a lot that capability is still there. So, what is next?
My suspicion is that they will pursue one of two lines of advance.
1. Either advance from Mariupol towards Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro, or,
2. Complete the encirclement of Kharkov and start their next big siege of the campaign.
We will see what happens after Mariupol falls (which I am guessing will be in the next week), but I don’t think we are done with ground operations yet (meaning I don’t think this is really stalemated).