I do have to ask the question: is this war really stalemated? I see lots of commentators saying so, and even a few articles that the Ukrainians are winning. Yet, the situation on the ground sort of indicates otherwise.
First, Mariupol is about to fall. This is/was a city of 400K+ people, If Russia is still taking major cities, is this war really stalemated?
And then once Mariupol falls, this will certainly free up significant forces. Where do they go and what do they do?
Meanwhile, Chernigov is surrounded, Sumy is almost surrounded, Kharkov is half-surrounded, and Kiev is only open to the south. What would be the focus of the next Russian advance?
Russia still has:
1. Air Superiority,
2. Thousands of tanks, and
3. Lots of firepower.
They may have been attritted by 5 to 10%, but a lot that capability is still there. So, what is next?
My suspicion is that they will pursue one of two lines of advance.
1. Either advance from Mariupol towards Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro, or,
2. Complete the encirclement of Kharkov and start their next big siege of the campaign.
We will see what happens after Mariupol falls (which I am guessing will be in the next week), but I don’t think we are done with ground operations yet (meaning I don’t think this is really stalemated).
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Mariupol is their big connector with Crimea.
I am doing a map exercise, I might shift my axis of advance further west. Pushing west along the coast or north into the interior. Now that you have Mariupol, your flank is more secure.
But if I am military brass, worried about being arrested for failure, I think I’d do my best to shift what I could toward Kiev with a hope of accelerating operations there. Give the boss some quick good news.
Taking Kharkov would be big news.
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