The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are very few changes today. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted and replaced with a Russian appointed one.
They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it.
So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov?
We are looking six major areas of operations right now.
1. Kiev
2. Odessa
3. Kharkov
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson
Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:
1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev, and Irpin, the suburbs west of Kiev. The center of the city appears peaceful and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still able to broadcast messages from his office in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the south.
The Battle of Brovary:That tank column that is being hit that is show in various videos (See: Video shows destruction of tanks on the outskirts of Brovary, Ukraine – YouTube) is from Brovary (pop. 109,473), a suburb to the NE of Kiev. Anyone care to count size of column vice how many were hit? Can anyone tell what weapons did these hits? Various sources are saying artillery or drones. Russian Colonel Andrei Zakharov was supposedly killed at the head of this column. There are pictures of him standing next to Putin in 2016.
This video has what I believe is the Russian radio traffic. They have appeared to have clipped in some pictures of Turkish drone that are not from that event: Kyiv Region Dozens Of Armored Vehicles Was Defeated By The Ukrainian Artillery, Tanks And Drones – YouTube
This is an interesting video. Claims two tanks and one BTR destroyed (which looks about right) and 30 Russian casualties. Claims it was done with RPGs. See: Russian armoured convoy destroyed in ambush near Kyiv, Ukrainian soldiers claim – YouTube
Interesting video of a Ukranian infantry counterattack near Kiev. Four minutes long. Worth watching to the end: Ukrainian Troops Attempt To Drive Russian Forces From Village Near Kyiv – YouTube
Supplies: In an interview on 11 March with two former heavy weight boxing champions, the Klitschko brothers, one who is now mayor of Kiev, they stated that: 1) there are nearly 2 million people left in Kiev (out of 3.5 million), 2) they have enough provisions to last two weeks, 3) the supply lines in and out remained open, and 4) they currently have electricity, heating, gas and water.
Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. There have been some Russian tank and jet aircraft losses around this area. They are shelling the city and for all practical purposes, it is isolated.
2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Continue to see news reports (CNN and France 24) of the locals building up the defenses there. They did damage (sink?) a 1300-to-1700-ton patrol vessel yesterday: Vasily Bykov
3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.
Supplies: I know from a personal story on 10 March that parts of Kharkov are out of power but still have water. There was a very limited selection of food still in the grocery stores.
There was at least one video-based report a couple of days ago of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. I then noted this recent video, which kind of looks like a recent Ukrainian counterattack. See: Welcome to Ukraine S…. This minute long video is definitely worth watching. It shows four tanks abandoned/destroyed, two Lt. Colonels were killed, and at least a half-dozen fuel trucks taken/destroyed. The fight occurred at Chuhuiv, 35 km SE of Kharkov. It is on the map above.
As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.
Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).
4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area. We do have a casualty report dated 7 March from the Donetsk People’s Republic saying they have 47 soldiers killed and 179 wounded.
5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day twelve of the siege. The Russians have captured the eastern outskirts of the city. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down (and no gas or water). It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.
6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control.
Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. There has been a lot of fighting here recently, but it looks like the Ukrainian Army is holding.
Update: An older short video (March 6) from Mikolaiv area: Ukrainian soldiers find field full of abandoned Russian tanks after invaders ‘fled their post’ – YouTube
The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.
Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
There were more than 2,000 protesters active in Melitopol yesterday, demanding the release of the detained mayor. Seeing pictures and videos of fairly large protests also in Kherson and Berdyansk. Meanwhile, the Black Sea port “city” of Skadovsk (pop. 17,344) is reporting on 12 March that the Russians have left.
I will update this post during the day as I find more information.
Weather: Kiev at 2 PM: 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 Celsius) and cloudy, low tonight 27 degrees. Kharkov at 2 PM: 33 degrees and partly cloudy. Low tonight 17 degrees. It looks like the period of blistering cold had ended. It is only back to being cold for the next 10 or so days. No precipitation is forecast.
Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to interviews publish by Radio Free Europe (see: Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons (rferl.org)) the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force now has 200,000 recruits.
According to the Ukrainian defense minister, more have 140,000 Ukrainians has returned and more than 20,000 foreigners from 52 countries have appealed to fight for Ukraine. This includes about 3,000 Americans who have “expressed interest” according to Ukraine. “So far, about 100 U.S. citizens have made the cut.” Volunteers also include “up to 500” Indians and about 1,000 Canadians. I have seen reports of volunteers from places like Thailand and Japan (70 volunteers). All these figures are questionable, we shall see how many actually show up in Lviv.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles.
Russian Army Build-up: Russia is claiming that they have 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East. Apparently, the pay is $400 a week. I have yet to see any reports of Russia expanding its army or calling up more reserves and conscripts. We are now in the third week of the war. Are they going to expand their army as Ukraine is clearly expanding theirs, or are they expecting that this war will end shortly?
Opposing forces: Ukraine had before the war an army (ground forces) of 169,000 in 2016. The Russian army (not armed forces) was 280,000. The current Ukrainian army is now probably over 200,000. The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000. They may be able to add more from their own resources, but not much more. If they want to add more, they are going to have to mobilize. They appear to be hesitant to do so. I suspect with full mobilization; we could be looking at a Ukrainian army larger than 300,000. At some point, Russia will have to mobilize to continue this war.
The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this last Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. Apparently, a guest on a Russian TV show spoke out against the invasion: https://www.yahoo.com/news/afghanistan-even-worse-ukraine-war-214211595.html
Exchange rate: The Ruble is at 141.50 to a dollar as of 8:52 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market.
Price of oil (Brent crude): $112.12 as of 8:52 AM EST. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget. Several years ago, if the price of oil dropped below $80, the Russian budget would go into the red.
They have stopped production Ladas (the largest Russian produced automobile) and placed thousands of workers “on leave.”
Casualties: The UN is reporting for 12 March 579 civilians confirmed dead in the war. They previously reported that 23 were in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming about 2,500 civilians killed and 1,600 in Mariupol alone (12 March). Zelensky (President of Ukraine) is reporting on 12 March that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). U.S. officials are saying that between 2,000 to 4,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed.
Russia reported on 2 March 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. The Donetsk People’s Republic is reporting as of 4 March that they had 77 soldiers killed and 406 wounded (5.27-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). See: The overview of the current social and humanitarian situation in the territory of the Donetsk People`s Republic as a result of hostilities in the period from 26 February to 04 March 2022 – Human rights Ombudsman in the Donetsk People’s Republic (ombudsman-dnr.ru). U.S. officials are now claiming figures of around 5,000 to 6,000 Russian soldiers killed. In the past they have claimed 3,000 captured. Zelensky (President of Ukraine) claimed on 12 March that between 500 to 600 Russian troops surrendered the day before. This claim has not been verified. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are). I suspect that if Ukrainian losses are 1,300 killed (as Zelensky claims) then Russian losses are probably at least as high.
Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.
Three Russian generals have also been killed: Major General Vitaly Gerasimov (age 44), chief of staff 41st Army, was killed near Kharkov on 7 March, and Major General Andrei Sukhovetskiy (age 47), CO 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, was killed on 28 February. Ukraine is now claiming a third general, Maj. General Andrei Kolesnikov (age 45), was killed on 11 March in action in fighting over Mariuipol. Ukrainian “sources” estimate that around 20 major generals have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.
During World War II the United States lost 11 generals killed in action. Germany lost 135, and had 84 executed. See: A List of American Commanders in WWII Who Lost Their Lives (warfarehistorynetwork.com). The U.S. lost six generals killed in action in Vietnam: Last US general killed in combat was in Vietnam in 1970
The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting at this time 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.
Russian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
2100, 7 March 0800, 11 March
Tanks: 141 179
AFVs: 89 108
IFVs: 131 158
APCs: 52 61
Jet aircraft: 10 11
Helicopters: 11 11
The @MFA_Ukraine (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) is claiming as of 10 March they have destroyed 335 tanks, 1,105 armored vehicles, 49 aircraft and 81 helicopters. They also claim 12,000 personnel killed.
The rate of equipment losses does appear to have slowed down.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:
2100, 7 March 0800, 11 March
Tanks: 46 49
AFVs: 38 42
IFVs: 33 36
APCs: 18 19
Jet aircraft: 6 7
Helicopters: 0 0
Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.
It is clear that at least 3,000 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 5,000 deaths. The U.S. provided estimates are higher. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that more than 12,000 Russian troops were killed as of 10 March.
There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.
Air Power: The Pentagon on 12 March is reporting that Russia is flying about 200 sorties a day. The Ukrainian air force has 56 operational jets flying 5 to 10 hours a day.
End of the War: While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. Mariupol is supposed to have fallen already. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.
Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, provided four conditions for a cease fire:
- Ukraine ceases military action,
- Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (i.e. never join NATO),
- Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
- Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
These same demands were made at the talks with Ukraine 10 March in Turkey. Needless to say, these talks went nowhere.
The attached map is from Wikipedia. I don’t think it has been updated since Friday. View with caution, but it does appear to be one of the better maps out there.
