The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 5 (ground actions)

Surprisingly little new to report. This is either the quiet before the storm or Russia’s offensive has truly stalled almost everywhere.

Russia appears to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768). This was done by an amphibious operation to take Beryansk, and I gather they have advanced from there to Melitopol. This is either part of a grander plan to surround and isolate and then take Mariupol; or is a rather pointless punch to nowhere. We shall see.

The real story appears to be the Russian reinforcements. There is a 3-mile long column spotted north of Kiev. I gather being three miles long, that is probably a brigade-size task force (up to 5,000 people). I gather at this stage, one more brigade to the north of Kiev does not mean that the Ukrainian defense of Kiev will collapse. There are rumors that Belarus is about the join the war on Russia’s side. If so, this indicates a rather dubious and desperate reinforcement of the attack on Kiev. The Belarusian Armed Forces has only 46,000 soldiers, and their contribution on the ground will be much less than that. Not sure what their morale and training is, but back in 2020 Lukashenko was nearly overthrown by popular protests. I doubt he is any more loved now.

There are also reports from CNN that forces around Belgorod are moving south towards Kharkov. This movement could clearly be identified by several broken down vehicles parked along the road.  While moving any military unit leaves behind a trail of broken-down vehicles, there is reason to believe that this is another sign of how poorly prepared are the standard rank-and-file Russian units. The interviews I have seen of captured Russian soldiers only reinforces that view. In one case, the called-up soldier has only been with the unit for two weeks and did not know the name of his unit. 

So, what we may be a seeing is a quiet day or two as the reinforcements are lined up near Kiev and Kharkov and then the offensive is renewed in both locales with deadly seriousness. There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces at Berdyansk. Suspect they will be able to envelop the city. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. The city is open to the west and the south.

It does not appear that Russia is aggressively, if at all, pushing into the city. 

Afternoon (EST) update: American satellite company is reporting a column of 17 miles in length north of Kiev. This is a pretty serious collection of forces, but not as scary as it sounds.

An old style Russian motorized rifle regiment has over 500 vehicles (about 280 trucks, 100 APCs and 140 tanks and IFVs). If you give them all 25 meters of linear space per vehicle (which is tight, especially when moving), then this comes out to something like eight miles. This could be a force of multiple brigades, if they are so densely packed. I gather there is also resupply and logistical vehicles in the column. Someone could count the vehicles in the photos for a more precise estimate, but I have not done that.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the fourth day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): The Russian push into Kharkov failed yesterday. Suspect they are going to halt and reorganize and wait for reinforcements from Belgorod.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Expect they will encircle Mariupol. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson remains under Ukrainian control as I gather is the case with Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is near 6,000. Protests continue. Considering the size of the anti-government protests in Belarus a couple of years ago, not sure what will happen if Belarus enters the war. 

Afternoon (EST) update: At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 406 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine reported two days ago 137 Ukrainians killed (mostly service members). Russia is claiming to have captured over 470 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 15 captured. It is clear that at least 600 people have died in this conflict.

According to photos, at least 15 Russians have been captured, as have 40 Ukrainians (see @caucasuswar). 

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.