The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 4 (ground actions)

The focus here remains on the ground actions. There is not much new here to report. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). Have even seen an odd video of fighting there (? Russian War Ukraine – Ukrainian Armored Vehicle Totally Ignores Direct Machine Gun Fire – YouTube).  

They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. They are intending to hold and fight for the city. Very different than what we saw in Afghanistan. The previous president, Petro Poroshenko, a billionaire, is also in Kiev brandishing a Kalashnikov. There is an example of national unity. The city is open to the west and the south. Reporters moving through those areas are reporting that Ukrainian militia is organizing and training.

It does not appear that Russia is aggressively, if at all, pushing into the city. 

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA

Afternoon (EST) update: 

Anyone care to make as estimate the size of this force? (Sky News: Massive Russian Convoy Seen Outside Kyiv): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw

Interesting report from ITV News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32yVBH6n4Mo

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): There were reports of a landing there on the first day. I still have no idea of the size or location of the landing. Was this a raid or a permanent landing? Are there Russian forces there now? I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the third day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): How serious are Russian ground operations? Are they trying to surround and isolate Kharkov? It appears the Ukraine army in this area are putting up a fight. It does appear that most of the videos of captured Russians and destroyed Russian vehicles are coming from there. For example (from today): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDxjBmxu1oo and: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0X_Pl0i6cso

Video of a car driving into a mortar bombardment: Car Barely Dodges Mortar Attack In Kharkiv – YouTube

No clear news from Kharkov from the last three days. The U.S. officials were saying yesterday that the heaviest fighting is “in and around Kharkiv.” Is the Russian army slowly encircling the city? Some maps seem to indicate that, but I have no clear evidence of such.

More Kharkov videos: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-E_rrqO3Ug

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY_7sUvrNmY

Afternoon (EST) update:

It appears that Kharkov remains under Ukrainian control (does the scene starting at 0:30 look like a Call of Duty game?): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZsuteJN6AM

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces are under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here. So far, we have not heard much from this area.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaEyKO2xNYY

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Two days ago there were reports of an amphibious landing of several thousand troops in or near Mariupol. They are reporting heavy fighting near Mariupol, but not in it.

Afternoon (EST) update: Vidoes show Russians are occupying Berdyansk (see @causcasuswar on twitter). Other reports are that 2,000 marines are advancing on Mariupol (U.S. official). The amphibious operations and Berdyansk are to the SW of Mariupol. It is debatable if this force is sufficient to take Mariupol. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Two or three days ago Russian troops entered Kherson and raised the Russian flag over the administrative building in the middle of the city. By the end of Day 2, Ukraine had control of Kherson and some of the area between Crimea and Kherson. They appear to have retained control of Kherson and the bridge they have been fighting over. There were also reports yesterday of fighting in Mykolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

This is the second or third successful counterattack we have seen from the Ukranian army. This is tough to do when your opponent has air superiority. It does seem that Russia put out a couple of unsupported airmobile columns to places like Kherson and Antonov airport. This may work if your opponent is folding but does not seem to work as well against an opponent that is determined to fight and to counterattack.

Afternoon (EST) update: Lots of action around Melitipol (pop. 150,768). Not sure of current status:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIr0TJNKWLk

Soviet flag: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmYAEsZR_fM

Russian flag: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WDgE8QwqfY

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: There were certainly a lot of anti-war demonstrations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, and other Russian cities the first night of the war. Do not know now how much they are continuing, but I do see a recent video of a long line of protesters marching in Novosibirsk. According to a Russian human rights media group OVD-Info the number of detained protesters is 2,692. At least 1,370 were detained in Moscow.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 64 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine reported two days ago 137 Ukrainians killed (mostly service members). The Ukraine health ministry is now reporting that 198 Ukrainians, including three children, have been killed. Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 6 captured that I have seen from videos. It is clear that at least 300 people have died in this conflict.

According to photos, at least 15 Russians have been captured, as have 40 Ukrainians (see @caucasuswar). 

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

P.S. Ukrainian border guards may have survived reported last stand on Snake Island

P.P.S. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qQDNY462scM. Berdyansk is a coastal city on the Sea of Azov between Mariupol and Crimea. 

P.P.P.S. Drone footnote (afternoon update): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdTGT1dLSKA