The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – part 5 (airpower)

There is a big mismatch in airpower between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force can field about 100 modern aircraft, Russia can field over 1,300. Actual count according to Wikipedia is:

Ukraine
MiG-29 – 37 (multirole)

Su-24 – 12 (attack)

Su-25 – 17 (attack/CAS)

Su-27 – 32 (multirole)

Total Modern Combat Airplanes: 98

Total multirole or fighters: 69

 

Russia (in service)

MiG-35 – 8 (multirole)

MiG-31 – 113 (fighter)

MiG-29 – 259 (fighter)

Su-24 – 274

Su-25 – 193

Su-27 – 172 (fighter)

Su-30 – 119 (multirole)

Su-34 – 131 (multirole)

Su-35 – 103 (multirole)

Su-57 – 5 (multirole)

Total Modern Combat Airplanes: 1,377 (they also have 124 bombers)

Total multirole or fighters: 910

 

This does not include Russian Naval aircraft: 22 MiG-29s, 42 MiG-31s, 22 Su-24s, 4 Su-25UTG, 6 Su-27s, 26 Su-30ss, and 18 Su-33s for a total of 140.

It is clear that Russia will dominate the air. For Ukraine to have a fighting chance, it would need significant air support from the U.S. or NATO. The U.S. providing such air support is not an option I have heard discussed anywhere. Such a promise would have deterrence value.

 

Not discussed: Helicopters and drones.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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One comment

  1. […] Now, our count before the war gave Russia some 1,377 modern combat airplanes with 910 of them multirole or fighters (not counting Navy), vice Ukraine’s 98 modern combat airplanes with 69 of them multirole or fighters. Reports were saying the Russia had deployed 500 of them against Ukraine. See: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2022/02/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-5-airpower/ […]

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