Month February 2022

Contested Air Space over Ukraine?

Well, I just assumed with 500+ Russian jets and only 100 Ukrainian, it was going to be Russian air superiority. It mostly has, but not entirely. Russia has also lost some air assets while it appears that Ukraine has maintained some of theirs.

Now, our count before the war gave Russia some 1,377 modern combat airplanes with 910 of them multirole or fighters (not counting Navy), vice Ukraine’s 98 modern combat airplanes with 69 of them multirole or fighters. Reports were saying the Russia had deployed 500 of them against Ukraine. See: https://dupuyinstitute.dreamhosters.com/2022/02/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-5-airpower/

So, no contest… except…

  1. It appears from video evidence that several of the Ukrainian Mig-29s survived the first couple of days and were still operating. So, the Russia initial strike did not completely take out the Ukrainian Air Force. We have no idea how many (if any) were taken out and how many (if any) aircraft are still operational.
  2. The Ukrainians have been able to make use of their Turkish manufactured Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs. I have seen videos of two successful strikes by them. According to Wikipedia they had 6 or 12 of them and the Ukrainian Navy had an additional 1 to 5. Not sure if they have any others or if any of these survived. Looking at the satellite pictures of the densely packed convoys north of Kiev, I am guessing that they did not. They may have only had around seven at the start of the war, and I would not be surprised if all of them had been used or destroyed. Not sure if or when they are getting any more. They were setting up a contract to build 48 in Ukraine.
    1. Updated 2 March 2022: Apparently another 6 to 12 Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs have been shipped to Ukraine from either Turkey or Azerbaijan.
  3. The Ukrainians are getting another 70 planes and Ukranian pilots are already picking up MiG-29s in Poland. According to twitter (trust at your own risk) the list of planes includes 16 MiG-29s from Bulgaria, 14 SU-25s from Bulgaria, 28 MiG-29s from Poland and 12 MiG-29s from Slovakia. Have no idea how accurate this report is. But potentially this means that Ukraine will be able to maintain some air presence over the battlefield. Also see: Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland
    1. Updated 01 March 2022: EU’s Ukraine Fighter Jet Promise Falling Apart as Russia Advances
    2. Updated 02 March 2022: It looks like that at least the Polish MiG-29s have been taken over by the Ukrainian air force. 
    3. Updated 03 March 2022: The Ukrainian pilots are in Poland, but apparently so are the Polish MiG-29s. See: Is Poland Sending Fighter Jets to Ukraine?
    4. It appears that as of right now (3 March) the Ukrainians do not have any additional aircraft and are not clearly slated to get them.
    5. Update 5 March 2022: It appears that Ukraine has most of its original aircraft, even though it has yet to receive any additional from NATO: US: Ukraine has ‘significant majority’ of its military aircraft.
  4. And then there are the Stingers (FIM-92). These are great air denial weapons and we have seen a couple of Russian planes and helicopters brought down by them. Don’t know how many they had before the start of the war. They were supplied some by Latvia and Lithuania before the war. They also have the Piorun MANPAD provided by Poland and the various Soviet built Igla-1, Igla-2, Strela-2 and Strela-3. Germany has just announced it providing them with 500 Stingers, although I assume it will be a few weeks before they get into action. U.S. is apparently now also sending them Stingers.
    1. Updated 03 March 2022: It is claimed that 200 Stingers from the U.S. arrived in Ukraine on 1 March.
  5. They also have considerable other anti-aircraft weapons: 1) S-300V1 (SA-12 Gladiator) – 4 batteries, 2) TOR (SA-15 Guantlet) – 6, 3) 9K37-BUK (SA-17 Grizzly) – 72, 4) 9K33 Osa (SA-8 Grecko) – 125, 5) 9K35 Strela 10 (SA-14 Gopher) – 150+, 6) 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9 Gaskin) – not counted, 7) 2k22 Tunguska (SA-19 Grison)  – only 10 counted, 8) ZSU-23-4 “Shilka” – up to 300, 9) AZP S-60 (not counted) and ZU-23-2 (not counted). This is a total of at least 687 antiaircraft systems, although I assume at this point, a number of them are already out of action.

So, it does appear that the air space will be contested at least some of the time at some locations. Over time, as hundreds of Stingers arrive, I am guessing that air space will become contested more frequently. 

P.S. Spotted this article just after making this post: Ukraine and Russia are still fighting for control of the skies 5 days into the war, U.S. defense official says

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 5 (ground actions)

Surprisingly little new to report. This is either the quiet before the storm or Russia’s offensive has truly stalled almost everywhere.

Russia appears to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768). This was done by an amphibious operation to take Beryansk, and I gather they have advanced from there to Melitopol. This is either part of a grander plan to surround and isolate and then take Mariupol; or is a rather pointless punch to nowhere. We shall see.

The real story appears to be the Russian reinforcements. There is a 3-mile long column spotted north of Kiev. I gather being three miles long, that is probably a brigade-size task force (up to 5,000 people). I gather at this stage, one more brigade to the north of Kiev does not mean that the Ukrainian defense of Kiev will collapse. There are rumors that Belarus is about the join the war on Russia’s side. If so, this indicates a rather dubious and desperate reinforcement of the attack on Kiev. The Belarusian Armed Forces has only 46,000 soldiers, and their contribution on the ground will be much less than that. Not sure what their morale and training is, but back in 2020 Lukashenko was nearly overthrown by popular protests. I doubt he is any more loved now.

There are also reports from CNN that forces around Belgorod are moving south towards Kharkov. This movement could clearly be identified by several broken down vehicles parked along the road.  While moving any military unit leaves behind a trail of broken-down vehicles, there is reason to believe that this is another sign of how poorly prepared are the standard rank-and-file Russian units. The interviews I have seen of captured Russian soldiers only reinforces that view. In one case, the called-up soldier has only been with the unit for two weeks and did not know the name of his unit. 

So, what we may be a seeing is a quiet day or two as the reinforcements are lined up near Kiev and Kharkov and then the offensive is renewed in both locales with deadly seriousness. There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces at Berdyansk. Suspect they will be able to envelop the city. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. The city is open to the west and the south.

It does not appear that Russia is aggressively, if at all, pushing into the city. 

Afternoon (EST) update: American satellite company is reporting a column of 17 miles in length north of Kiev. This is a pretty serious collection of forces, but not as scary as it sounds.

An old style Russian motorized rifle regiment has over 500 vehicles (about 280 trucks, 100 APCs and 140 tanks and IFVs). If you give them all 25 meters of linear space per vehicle (which is tight, especially when moving), then this comes out to something like eight miles. This could be a force of multiple brigades, if they are so densely packed. I gather there is also resupply and logistical vehicles in the column. Someone could count the vehicles in the photos for a more precise estimate, but I have not done that.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the fourth day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): The Russian push into Kharkov failed yesterday. Suspect they are going to halt and reorganize and wait for reinforcements from Belgorod.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Expect they will encircle Mariupol. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson remains under Ukrainian control as I gather is the case with Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

 

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is near 6,000. Protests continue. Considering the size of the anti-government protests in Belarus a couple of years ago, not sure what will happen if Belarus enters the war. 

Afternoon (EST) update: At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 406 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine reported two days ago 137 Ukrainians killed (mostly service members). Russia is claiming to have captured over 470 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 15 captured. It is clear that at least 600 people have died in this conflict.

According to photos, at least 15 Russians have been captured, as have 40 Ukrainians (see @caucasuswar). 

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

 
To quote: “According to the navy the soldiers on the island repelled two attacks by Russian forces but in the end were forced to surrender “due to the lack of ammunition.”
 
 
 

The Fight at Antonov/Hostomel Air Base

Several videos/posts that help to tell the story there:

1. Matthew Chance of CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b40r8RX5MoE

2. Helicopter attack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_ZhCfweTRI

3. The Sun Report: https://www.the-sun.com/news/4768049/ukraine-russia-news-kyiv-airport-capture/

4. Other blog reports: https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-retake-airport/

and

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/pictures-in-battle-for-hostomel-ukraine-drove-back-russias-attack-helicopters-and-elite-paratroopers/

5. Fighting in Ivankov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3nvXdoInk

6. Recent CNN report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEczZqp4JUI

7. Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 4 (ground actions)

The focus here remains on the ground actions. There is not much new here to report. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). Have even seen an odd video of fighting there (? Russian War Ukraine – Ukrainian Armored Vehicle Totally Ignores Direct Machine Gun Fire – YouTube).  

They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. They are intending to hold and fight for the city. Very different than what we saw in Afghanistan. The previous president, Petro Poroshenko, a billionaire, is also in Kiev brandishing a Kalashnikov. There is an example of national unity. The city is open to the west and the south. Reporters moving through those areas are reporting that Ukrainian militia is organizing and training.

It does not appear that Russia is aggressively, if at all, pushing into the city. 

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA

Afternoon (EST) update: 

Anyone care to make as estimate the size of this force? (Sky News: Massive Russian Convoy Seen Outside Kyiv): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw

Interesting report from ITV News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32yVBH6n4Mo

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): There were reports of a landing there on the first day. I still have no idea of the size or location of the landing. Was this a raid or a permanent landing? Are there Russian forces there now? I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the third day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): How serious are Russian ground operations? Are they trying to surround and isolate Kharkov? It appears the Ukraine army in this area are putting up a fight. It does appear that most of the videos of captured Russians and destroyed Russian vehicles are coming from there. For example (from today): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDxjBmxu1oo and: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0X_Pl0i6cso

Video of a car driving into a mortar bombardment: Car Barely Dodges Mortar Attack In Kharkiv – YouTube

No clear news from Kharkov from the last three days. The U.S. officials were saying yesterday that the heaviest fighting is “in and around Kharkiv.” Is the Russian army slowly encircling the city? Some maps seem to indicate that, but I have no clear evidence of such.

More Kharkov videos: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-E_rrqO3Ug

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY_7sUvrNmY

Afternoon (EST) update:

It appears that Kharkov remains under Ukrainian control (does the scene starting at 0:30 look like a Call of Duty game?): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZsuteJN6AM

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces are under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here. So far, we have not heard much from this area.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaEyKO2xNYY

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Two days ago there were reports of an amphibious landing of several thousand troops in or near Mariupol. They are reporting heavy fighting near Mariupol, but not in it.

Afternoon (EST) update: Vidoes show Russians are occupying Berdyansk (see @causcasuswar on twitter). Other reports are that 2,000 marines are advancing on Mariupol (U.S. official). The amphibious operations and Berdyansk are to the SW of Mariupol. It is debatable if this force is sufficient to take Mariupol. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Two or three days ago Russian troops entered Kherson and raised the Russian flag over the administrative building in the middle of the city. By the end of Day 2, Ukraine had control of Kherson and some of the area between Crimea and Kherson. They appear to have retained control of Kherson and the bridge they have been fighting over. There were also reports yesterday of fighting in Mykolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

This is the second or third successful counterattack we have seen from the Ukranian army. This is tough to do when your opponent has air superiority. It does seem that Russia put out a couple of unsupported airmobile columns to places like Kherson and Antonov airport. This may work if your opponent is folding but does not seem to work as well against an opponent that is determined to fight and to counterattack.

Afternoon (EST) update: Lots of action around Melitipol (pop. 150,768). Not sure of current status:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIr0TJNKWLk

Soviet flag: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmYAEsZR_fM

Russian flag: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WDgE8QwqfY

 

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: There were certainly a lot of anti-war demonstrations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, and other Russian cities the first night of the war. Do not know now how much they are continuing, but I do see a recent video of a long line of protesters marching in Novosibirsk. According to a Russian human rights media group OVD-Info the number of detained protesters is 2,692. At least 1,370 were detained in Moscow.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 64 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine reported two days ago 137 Ukrainians killed (mostly service members). The Ukraine health ministry is now reporting that 198 Ukrainians, including three children, have been killed. Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 6 captured that I have seen from videos. It is clear that at least 300 people have died in this conflict.

According to photos, at least 15 Russians have been captured, as have 40 Ukrainians (see @caucasuswar). 

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

 

P.S. Ukrainian border guards may have survived reported last stand on Snake Island

P.P.S. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qQDNY462scM. Berdyansk is a coastal city on the Sea of Azov between Mariupol and Crimea. 

P.P.P.S. Drone footnote (afternoon update): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdTGT1dLSKA

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 3 (ground actions)

My focus here is on the ground actions. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. Right now, this attack looks pretty unrestrained, but who knows what are Putin actual objectives or at what point he will decide he has done enough. I gather the degree of resistance by the Ukrainian Army may influence these decisions.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is reported to have reached the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl (I wouldn’t want to be those troops). The Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev is under Russian control. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. They are intending to hold and fight for the city. Very different than what we saw in Afghanistan. 

The Russian forces appear to be on the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. It appears they are at least 4 miles from the center. Not sure how aggressively, if at all, they are going to push into the city. The city is open to the west and the south. Reporters moving through those areas are reporting that Ukrainian militia is organizing and training.

Bald and Bankrupt is in Kiev: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caC73CHR-AI

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): There were reports of a landing there on the first day. I still have no idea of the size or location of the landing. Was this a raid or a permanent landing? Are there Russian forces there now? I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): How serious are Russian ground operations? Are they trying to surround and isolate Kharkov? It appears the Ukraine army in this area are putting up a fight. It does appear that most of the videos of captured Russians and destroyed Russian vehicles are coming from there. No real news from Kharkov from the last two days. It does not appear to be any serious push there.

U.S. officials are saying: “But the heaviest fighting we still assess is in and around Kharkiv.” Don’t know what that means and have no details on that. I have not seen any evidence that Russia is in Kharkov or on the outskirts. There are camera’s on youtube showing downtown Kharkov live.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces are under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here. So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Yesterday afternoon there were reports of an amphibious landing of several thousand troops in or near Mariupol. They are reporting heavy fighting near Mariupol, but not in it.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): A day or two ago Russian troops entered Kherson and raised the Russian flag over the administrative building in the middle of the city. By the end of the day yesterday, Ukraine had control of Kherson and some of the area between Crimea and Kherson. This is the second or third successful counterattack we have seen from the Ukranian army. This is tough to do when your opponent has air superiority. It does seem that Russia put out a couple of unsupported airmobile columns to places like Kherson and Antonov airport. This may work if your opponent is folding but does not seem to work as well against an opponent that is determined to fight and to counterattack.

See: Battle rages for strategic bridge in southern Ukraine after days of fighting

There is also fighting reported in Mykolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: It was hard to tell from the videos last night whether there were new demonstrations, or we were just seeing a replay of the demonstrations from Thursday night. I gather there were new demonstrations in St. Petersburg last night. Have not gotten confirmation to the reports that Russia arrested more than 1,700 protesters, but from the videos I have seen, this is completely believable. There was a very large protest in Georgia (the country) last night. Probably because they know they are probably next.

According to a Russian human rights media group OVD-Info the number of detained protesters is 2,692. At least 1,370 were detained in Moscow.

Casualties: No new updates on casualties. It is clear that at least 300 people have died in this conflict.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop, neither who are known to me.

I previously reference a video on youtube called “fight between Russian Sukhoi Su35 v Ukrainian Mig29 over Kyiv.” It appears that it is of two Ukrainian Mig-29s. It appears that at least some of Ukrainian air force has survived the initial attack. AhirTech has posted many other interesting videos.

 

P.S. Oh, and speaking of hockey: Dominik Hasek calls Ovechkin a …, and wants NHL to suspend all Russians

P.P.S.: Probably not really relevant to anything above, but I still find it interesting. Is this relevant to information operations (IO)?  US lobbying firms rush to cut ties with Russian businesses hit with sanctions

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 2 (ground actions)

I changed the title of my previous post to “Day 1.” Again, my focus here is on the ground actions. What I am interested in is what ground are they going to take and what ground are they going to hold. Right now, this attack looks pretty unrestrained, but who knows what are Putin actual objectives or at what point he will decide he has done enough. I gather the degree of resistance by the Ukrainian Army may influence these decisions.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces.
5. Mariupol.
6. Crimean border

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is reported to have reached the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl (I wouldn’t want to be those troops). Vladimir Zelensky vowed last night to stay in Kiev. So, it does look like they intend to hold and fight for the city (see picture above). Very different than what we saw in Afghanistan. 

The Antonov/Hostomel airport has become a real right. Apparently, Russia did an airmobile operation to put troops within 15 miles of the capitol. This is the group of Matthew Chance ran across, and they were so nice as to let him film them. Ukraine counterattacked against what would have been an isolated “forward detachment” (the head of our Kursk research team, Col. Sverdlov, wrote the influential book “Forward Detachments in Battle”). They have retaken it according to some accounts. By the end of today, I gather it was back under Russian control.

There are lots of twitter feeds on this fight. Recommend you check @RALee85 and @TrentTelenko.

This is a decent news report from AP: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/sorting-fact-disinformation-russian-attack-ukraine-83106752

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): There were reports of a landing there yesterday. I still have no idea of the size or location of the landing. I see not yet seen any clear reports on the subject for today. Was this a raid or a permanent landing?

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): How serious are Russian ground operations? Are they trying to surround and isolate Kharkov? It appears the Ukraine army in this area are putting up a fight. It does appear that most of the videos of captured Russians and destroyed Russian vehicles are coming from there.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here. So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Maybe, but it is well defended. Not sure this will be a high priority. The mayor is reporting fighting in the area, but I gather none at or near Mariupol.

Afternoon update: There are reports of an amphibious landing of several thousand troops in or near Mariupol.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): It appears that they are fairly serious about their operations in the area north of Crimea. It looks like they entered Kherson yesterday and raised the Russian flag over the administrative building in the middle of the city. So it does appear that Russia controls the area from the Crimea to Kherson. Such an operation complicates the defense of Mariupol.

Afternoon Update: Twitter accounts report over 100 Ukranian vehicles in convoys in this area were destroyed, but that Ukraine has re-occupied the area between Crimea and Kherson. I assume this is because Russia does not have manpower deployed to hold all the areas they have moved through.

Later Update: It looks like Kherson is back under control of Ukraine. This video is worth watching in its entirety: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSCYjnwJtfk

In general, the news is lagging, as it is in the middle of the afternoon there. Will update this post as I find more information. 

The Home Front: There were a number of decent sized protests against the war in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Ekaterinburg that I saw videos off. According to reports, Russia arrested more than 1,700 protesters. There are videos on-line of protesters and protesters being arrested.

Casualties:

Russian Losses include:

4 soldiers captured in three separate incidences (video evidence)

1 Su-25 (attack jet) crashed (Russian claim)

1 An-26 (transport plane) crashed, crew killed (Russan claim)

1 Ka-52 (assault helicopter) destroyed (video evidence) 

1 T-80 (tank) destroyed (video evidence)

1 BMP destroyed (video evidence)

450+ casualties (UK estimate) – note probably 25% or less of casualties are killed, so maybe less than 113 killed.

 

Ukrainian Losses include:

137 soldiers killed, including 10 officers (Zelensky)

14 Soldiers surrendered (Russian claim)

25 Civilians killed (U.N. High Commisiooner)

Updates: Ukrainian Su-27 shot down over Kiev (video evidence)

 

Also, there is one video on youtube called “fight between Russian Sukhoi Su35 v Ukrainian Mig29 over Kyiv.” If true, it shows that at least some of Ukrainian air force has survived the initial attack. AhirTech has posted many other interesting videos.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop, neither who are known to me. I have not taken the time to exhaustively search their material. I am still working on my first cup of coffee this morning. Maybe later.

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – day 1 (ground actions)

Well, I did not think that Russia would actually take a step this far, but they did. I may discuss all the implications of that later. Right now my focus is on what ground actions they are taking. Is this a limited and defined operation or are they looking for large scale occupation of Ukrainian territory? As I see it there are six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces.
5. Mariupol.
6. Crimean border

 

Here Is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180) There is a column driving down the road from Belarus. Don’t know the size or whether it is Russian or mixed Russian-Belarussian. Needless to say, it is a big step from crossing a border to driving all the way down to the capital city. Taking Kiev is even a bigger challenge. I assume that Ukraine has some forces covering that route. I am guessing any column will get stopped or delayed. Not sure if this is anything more than a feint. I kind of doubt that they are looking at taking Kiev (especially as I gather they only have around 30,000 troops in Belarus).

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826) : I have heard reports that there is a landing there. Have no idea of the size or location of the landing., Again, I wonder if this is anything more than a distraction. Are they really looking at occupying Odessa? Cannot rule out that this is a special operations head-hunting expedition to try to capture/kill some of the people involved in the violence in Odessa in 2013, something that Putin has talked about.  

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): This may be the real objective/prize of this war. It is the second largest city in Ukraine and the largest Russian speaking city in Ukraine. It is part of the former Soviet rust-belt cities (which include Lugansk and Donetsk). It has had a declining population since 1989, although I gather this has now stabilized. I gather it has developed a big IT business though, and almost all of its business is with overseas customers. A Russian occupation would probably destroy a lot of that business. 

Geographically, it is a city in the middle of a large open plain. It changed hands three times in 1943. It was larger (population wise) than Stalingrad, which is why we examined the operations there for our urban warfare studies. I have never been there, but drove by it on the way to Belgorod. I do see lots of pictures of Russian forces near Belgorod and at the border between Belgorod and Kharkov. I have been to Belgorod a couple of times, which is part of the Kursk battlefield. 

So my question is, is Russia going to conduct serious ground operations for the sake of surrounding and isolating Kharkov?

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: Of course, Russia has recognized these “people’s republics.” They only control half of their provinces. The rest of the provinces under control of Ukraine and defended by the Ukrainian army. I gather their desire is to expand their control and take the rest of both provinces, but these are well defended. Not sure how serious will be their attempts here.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Are Russian going to try to drive through there to create a land connection to Crimea? Maybe, but it is well defended. Not sure this will be a high priority. In the next reports I saw last night, while there was lots of stuff exploding around Kiev and Kharkov, there was not much happening around Mariupol.

6. Crimea: One of the problems with Crimea is that they get their water from Ukraine. Is Russia going to try to expand their control of the area north of Crimea so as to secure water resources? Maybe. Such an operation also complicates the defense of Mariupol. I have heard that they have crossed the borders there, but I do wonder how serious of an effort they will make.

It is hard to say what Russian final objectives are, but obviously they are going to bomb all major military facilities and airfields. As cities are where many reporters are located this is what is first reported on. But the question for me, it what do they intended to occupy? Are they going to conquer all of Ukraine (I doubt it, it is a very big piece to swallow)? Are they going to just occupy all of Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts? Maybe, but this is a hard fight over terrain of limited economic value? All they going to isolate and then try to take Kharkov? This I think is a distinct possibility and I am looking for any reports of ground operations there with great interest.

While I assume the Ukrainian Army has some defensive capabilities, their biggest problem is that Russia has complete air superiority. 

 

P.S.: Captured around Kharkov: First Prisoners of War as Ukraine Captures Russian Soldiers

P.P.S.: Useful map: Map shows locations of explosions and potential attacks in Ukraine

P.P.P.S: More fighting around Kharkov. This one includes a video of a destroyed Russian tank: Russian Tank Convoy Blown Up in Videos as Ukraine Fights Back Invasion

P.P.P.P.S: Matthew Chance from CNN is at Antonov airbase 15 miles north of Kiev. It looks like Russian airborne and airmobile troops have already taken it. See: Cnn reporter: This shows just how close Russian forces are to Ukraine capital

P.P.P.P.P.S. It does appear that Russia is making a play for Kherson: 

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/801461.html

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/24/7325476/

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – part 6 (Russian deployment)

The following are reported deployed near Ukraine (according to U.S. statements). See: Roughly 75% of Russian conventional forces deployed against Ukraine:

This includes:

1. 120 Battalion Tactical Groups

2. 35 air defense battalions

3. 500 fighter and fighter-bombers

 

So, 500 Russian fighter and fighter-bombers versus Ukraine’s 100. They will clearly have air superiority. Makes me wonder what the 35 air defense battalions are going to do?

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – part 5 (airpower)

There is a big mismatch in airpower between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force can field about 100 modern aircraft, Russia can field over 1,300. Actual count according to Wikipedia is:

Ukraine
MiG-29 – 37 (multirole)

Su-24 – 12 (attack)

Su-25 – 17 (attack/CAS)

Su-27 – 32 (multirole)

Total Modern Combat Airplanes: 98

Total multirole or fighters: 69

 

Russia (in service)

MiG-35 – 8 (multirole)

MiG-31 – 113 (fighter)

MiG-29 – 259 (fighter)

Su-24 – 274

Su-25 – 193

Su-27 – 172 (fighter)

Su-30 – 119 (multirole)

Su-34 – 131 (multirole)

Su-35 – 103 (multirole)

Su-57 – 5 (multirole)

Total Modern Combat Airplanes: 1,377 (they also have 124 bombers)

Total multirole or fighters: 910

 

This does not include Russian Naval aircraft: 22 MiG-29s, 42 MiG-31s, 22 Su-24s, 4 Su-25UTG, 6 Su-27s, 26 Su-30ss, and 18 Su-33s for a total of 140.

It is clear that Russia will dominate the air. For Ukraine to have a fighting chance, it would need significant air support from the U.S. or NATO. The U.S. providing such air support is not an option I have heard discussed anywhere. Such a promise would have deterrence value.

 

Not discussed: Helicopters and drones.