Month January 2022

120 SDF Killed !!!

Just saw this news report: US-allied Syria force says it foiled major IS comeback plot

They are saying that the prison overrun by the Islamic State in northeastern Syria is now fully under its control.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) say that more than 120 of their fighters and prison workers died in the ten-day standoff at Gweiran prison. More than 120 of their people killed, as reported by SDF! This is a degree of losses rarely seen by a counterinsurgent force. It is stunning.

The SDF also claims that 374 ISIL militants, including the initial attackers, were also killed. So, I was pretty rattled when I realized that ISIL was organizing a company-level attack. So, was this a battalion-level attack?

My previous posts on the subject:

In Case We Forget | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

More on the revived ISIL | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Revival of ISIL | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Among many of the subjects that I wanted to address in our various insurgency studies (see Modern American Wars), before all funding stopped (because the U.S. was so good at combating insurgencies?), was an analysis of the early stages of an insurgency; how they started and developed in their first few years. This appears to be an insurgency that is revitalizing itself. Suspect it is only going to get worse.

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 1

Christopher A. Lawrence
January 31, 2022

Last week I did five posts on the upcoming Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). It is the first time we have tried such an effort, and hopefully it will be well enough received that it will become an annual (or even semi-annual) event. I was impressed with the level of support I received last fall when I first emailed people about this. I am very thankful for all the people who have volunteered to do presentations. We do have 22 presentations already lined up.

Anyhow, here is the announcement from last week:

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The cost of the conference is discussed in the link below. It is $150 for the whole three days, $60 for a day, $20 for “real” students. Presenters get a $60 discount. You have to cover your travel, hotel, meals and bar bill. Sorry.

Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Payment will be through Paypal. The account is our regular book ordering account of SRichTDI@aol.com. See: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications

Area hotels are listed in the link below. A couple are within walking distance. I have not put together a block of rooms at any hotel but can do so if people are interested. I suspect a lot of people attending the conference do live in the DC area.

Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The schedule for the conference is here. We have set aside two conference rooms and currently have 22 presentations scheduled. We have slots for at least 13 more. If we get a lot more quality presentations, then I will expand our conference area, instead of turning people way.

Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Finally, here is the call for presentations.

Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

If you are interested in presenting, just email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com

Historical Analysis Annual Conference

The Revival of ISIL

I have already discussed events in Syria and Iraq a couple of times. See:

In Case We Forget | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

More on the revived ISIL | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This still does not seem to be getting a lot of attention. The LA TImes (of all people) just put out an article worth looking at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/foiled-prison-break-brings-sense-163148079.html

A few highlights:

Two trucks attacked the prison.
The fight lasted a week. It ended Wednesday.
U.S. and UK forces involved.
1,600 prisoners gave themselves up. How many escaped? There were something like 3,500 prisoners there.
1. “Some 800 Islamic State prisoners managed to escape, Amaq said Saturday.” Amaq is a news outlet affiliated with the Islamic State.
The SDF has 10,000 fighters?
30 SDF were killed.
Perhaps as many as 10,000 ISIL fighters survived after 2019.
“This is just completely off the charts compared to the scale of the operations ISIS has engaged in for well over two years.” – yes, exactly. This is why I am blogging about this.

Now, for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 27-29 September 2022 I have two conference rooms reserved, one is larger than the other. On day 2 of the conference, I do have the larger conference room (amusingly named the “Pike and Gallows Conference Center”) scheduled for “Analysis of Unconventional Warfare.” I do have a shortage of presentations on “unconventional warfare” (or COIN or Irregular Warfare or whatever is the terminology of the day). I do think the subject does need to be further examined, especially in light of how successful we were in Afghanistan.

P.S. ISIL, ISIS, Daesh and Islamic State are all the same people.

The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History

Robert L. Helmbold has published a new book (his first book) called The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History. Bob Helmbold was one of the senior analysts at CAA (Center of Army Analysis). It was published by MORS (Military Operations Research Society) with the help of Dean Hartley, formerly of Oakridge. This is Bob Helmbold’s first book, and at 91 years old, I hope to see a dozen more from him.

Bob Helmbold will be doing a virtual presentation on this on the second day (Wednesday the 28th of September) of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC).

The book is only available through Barnes and Noble, not through Amazon. A link to it is here: The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History: by Robert Helmbold, Paperback | Barnes & Noble® (barnesandnoble.com)

Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Want to make a call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in September 2022.

Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007.

We do not require any formal paper or publication to support such a presentation. The presentations should be planned to be completed within 45 minutes, giving us time for 15 minutes of discussion.

We are looking for presentations from academia, think tanks, defense companies, the armed services or private individuals that are related to historical analysis of military affairs. I do have a bias towards quantitative historical analysis but reman open-minded towards anything of value.

I will probably be accepting requests for presentations up through the end of August, when for practical purposes I will need to finalize the schedule. We prefer the presentations to be in person, but we have arranged for at least one virtual presentation.

We do give a $60 discount to the fee for the conference to presenters. While it would be nice to cover people’s travel expenses and pay honorariums to the presenters, this is the first such conference and I am funding it out of my own pocket. I guess I could charge more for the conference to allow for this; but instead, I limited the charges just to cover the expenses of the conference rooms.

Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Christopher A. Lawrence
January 25, 2022

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 22 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers, including four or five by me (this could get tiresome). We have slots available for at least another 13 presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias to it either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

Anyhow, the current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 14 December 2021

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks (new) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat (old) Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130 War by Numbers (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230 How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500 Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600 How Important are Superior Numbers?

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700 Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000 Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100 Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200 Infantry Support Weapon Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000 The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100 The Decline of War Since 1950

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200 Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400 HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500 Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600 The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700 The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Poster Room

Opened at 0800

Afternoon Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

1700 – 1800

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000 A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100 The Combat Assessment Technique William Sayers

1100 – 1200 Machine Learning the Lessons of History Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400 Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700 Urban Warfare (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000 Midway and the Aleutians Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1000 – 1100

1100 – 1200

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling Analysis

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

Historical Analysis Annual Conference

Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Christopher A. Lawrence
January 25, 2022

Dining and Hotels are at the expense of the attendees. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road.

The nearest hotel is the Marriott Tysons Corner at 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, VA.

Nearby hotels include:

1. Tysons Corner Marriot (nearest hotel)
  1. 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 734-3200
  2. Hotel in Tysons Corner, VA | Tysons Corner Marriott
2. Hyatt Regency (very nice location – connect to Tyson Corner Shopping mall)
  1. 7901 Tysons One Place, McLean, VA, 22102, 1 (703) 893-1234
  2. https://www.hyatt.com/en-US/hotel/virginia/hyatt-regency-tysons-corner-center/iadrt
3. Residence Inn Tysons
  1. 8400 Old Courthouse Road, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 917-0800
  2. Vienna, VA, Hotel Near Tysons Corner Mall | Residence Inn (marriott.com)
4. Double Tree by Hilton McLean Tysons
  1. 1960 Chain Bridge Road, McLean, VA 22102, 1 (703) 893-2100
  2. DoubleTree Hotel Rooms and Suites Mclean, VA Tysons Corner (hilton.com)
5. Courtyard Tysons McLean
  1. 1960A Chain Bridge Road, McLean, VA 22102, 1 (703) 790-0207
  2. Tysons Corner, VA Hotels | Courtyard Tysons McLean (marriott.com)
6. Extended Stay America (very near)
  1. 8201 Old Courthouse Rd., Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 356-6300
  2. Vienna, VA – Washington D.C. – Tysons Corner Hotel | Extended Stay America
7. Hilton Garden Inn Tysons Corner
  1. 8301 Boone Blvd, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 760-9777
  2. Hotels in Tysons Corner – Hilton Garden Inn

I have not looked into setting up a block of rooms at the Marriott or Hyatt Regency but can do so if there is the interest.

The Hilton Garden Inn is where the leader and several of the Oath Keepers stayed on 5-6 January 2021. They have been charged with Seditious Conspiracy, see pages 20 & 21 and 30: Indictment from U.S. District Court

The Tysons Corner metro station is a 15-minute walk from the conference center or 4 minutes away by shuttle.

The only challenge is Route 7 is a busy road, so if you have to cross on foot, please do so using the cross walk.

Historical Analysis Annual Conference

Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

The cost of attendance to the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 27-29 September 2022 will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Cost for attendance for a single day is $60. As the conference is near Tyson Corner metro (Silver line), then a number of people in the area may wish to attend for only one day.

We are offering a student discount of only $20 a day. That kind of only applies to real students. The conference costs are listed below:

Costs:

Conference fee = $150
Attendance for one day = $60
Presenters get a $60 discount.
Student discounted price = $20 for a day.
The Dupuy Institute discount = free
1. Former employees of TDI/TNDA/DMSI/HERO
2. Former members of the board of TDI

Payment:

Please make payments to our paypal account SRichTDI@aol.com.

We will also be able to take payments at the conference but prefer to get a good feel for the number attendees ahead of time. As this is the first time we have held such a conference, it would be nice to know if 40 people are attending or is it more like 160. The facilities we have rented are expandable, but we do need to make some plans before the conference.

The money for the conference is to pay for the conference facilities and will be placed in a separate bank account that will be answerable to an independent board. That board will be elected on the third day of the conference.

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA

Christopher A. Lawrence
January 24, 2022

Announcing the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

Purpose:

To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.

It is built in part upon the work done by the HERO (Historical Evaluation Research Organization), TNDA (Trevor N. Dupuy and Associates), DMSI (Data Memory Systems Inc.), TMCI (The Military Conflict Institute), TDI (The Dupuy Institute) and elements of the Cornwallis Group. Similar in concept to the TMCI conferences.

First Conference:

Will be held 27-29 September 2022 at Tysons Corner, Virginia, near Washington, DC. It is in honor of the 60^th anniversary of the Trevor N. Dupuy founded organizations and the 30^th anniversary of The Dupuy Institute.

It is expected that the conference will include a wide range of attendees and presenters from private industry, academia, the U.S. government, the UK operational research and historical analysis community, and other interested parties.

The first day (Tuesday) of the conference with be focused on Analysis of Conventional Warfare, the second day (Wednesday) on Analysis of Unconventional Warfare and the third day (Thursday) with include Other Analysis of Warfare. Each presentation will be a maximum of 45 minutes with at least 15 minutes set aside for questions and discussion.

If demand is high enough, the conference will be broken into working groups as required.

Historical Analysis:

There is no clear definition as to what historical analysis consists of. For the purposes of this conference, it is that analysis of history that is focused on military affairs and is usually quantitative in approach and based upon a large number of cases (as opposed to being a case study). Historical Analysis is considered a proper subdiscipline of UK Operational Research. It is not considered part of Operations Research in the United States.

The UK Dstl defines historical analysis as “The use of mathematical, statistical, qualitative and other forms of analysis to understand historical engagements, operations, campaigns and conflicts for the purpose of providing impartial analysis and sensitive decision support to policy makers.”

The key elements of what The Dupuy Institute looks for in historical analysis is that it is 1) based upon history, with a strong bias towards primary sources (i.e. unit records), 2) it is a based upon a representative sample of cases, not just a case study of one or two cases, 3) it is analytical in approach, 4) it is using past real-world experience for analyzing and addressing a problem of today. Historical analysis is simply the analysis of real-world experiences.

There are people who are doing surveys of historical operations, basically doing multiple case studies to examine trends and patterns. While these are not based upon the large databases that The Dupuy Institute favors, these are efforts worth examining and such efforts will also be explored at our conferences.

Costs:

Cost of attendance will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Call for Presentations:

We are making a call for papers and presentations at that time. We have already set up a preliminary list of presenters.

Long-term Goal:

The long-term goal is a create a series of periodic conferences for the purposes of presenting, examining and encouraging historical analysis of military affairs across a wide-range of issues.

For questions, suggestions, comments, or to volunteer for presentations, please contact: