Coronavirus in the DC area – update 69

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is update number 69 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Missed doing one last week and this one is a day late. So this one covers 15 days. I am probably going to quit doing this on a weekly basis, unless there is demand for it. Instead update it a couple of times a month.

These last two weeks the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 6,806 new cases. The previous week was 940 new cases over the shortened week. The week before that it was 1,241 new cases over the week plus two days. The week before that it was 446 new cases. Twenty-eight weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe has lost control of the situation, with the UK and Spain particularly hard hit. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 7K new cases for Wednesday (and 5K for Tuesdays). The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that is still not completely under control. They are reporting 29K new cases Wednesday (and 22K on for Tuesday) but it is not as bad as it was two weeks ago. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January and they reached another peak on 17 July with 54K new cases in a day. It was down below 2K cases a day three months ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fifth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India, Brazil and now Russia). They reported for France 29K new cases Wednesday (and 24K on Tuesday). The new case count yesterday for Spain has remained high with 22K new cases for Wednesday (and 20K for Tuesday). As for Germany it is only 4K new cases on Wednesday (and 2.5K cases on Tuesday) and for Russia it is 23K new cases on Wednesday (and 21K cases on Tuesday). Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 93K new cases on Wednesday (and 107K new cases on Tuesday). Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January and we hit another peak on 30 July of 195K. We did have it down to around 12K new cases a day in June.

In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low for Wednesday/Tuesday: China remains low (87/104), Japan continues to rise (14,114/12,045), South Korea is stabilizing (1,776/1,723), Taiwan (21/19 after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam has boomed (7,295/16,954), Singapore has stabilized (95/102), Australia continues to rise (302/253) and New Zealand remains low (1/2). Again, these are daily rates.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 7:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE. The table below for this week is based upon two less days.

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,827…..50,858……1,149
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,404…..15,727………258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,972…..12,227………141
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,612.….78,955……1,126
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………432………….8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….568….……574………..19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,292.….28,559……….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….46,069…..46,848……….514
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,325…….4,360……..…48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,223…….1,232……..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,644…..11,986…………83
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,173.……2,230……..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,538…..72,596…….1,634
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……86,014.…87,313…….1,607
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425.…407,091….413,897……6,906

The Mortality Rate is 1.67%. There were 20 fatalities in the last two weeks compared to 6,806 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.29%, which is very low. The population known to have been infected is 7.71% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,717, new cases yesterday and 1,403 new cases on Tuesday. Two weeks ago it was 721 new cases on Tuesday, the week before that it was 346 new cases on Tuesday and the week before that it was 132 cases. Twenty-six weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,457 total cases (2,275 cases two weeks ago) and 10 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.

Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.

His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) and The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019)

Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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